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Chris Meaney
Week 13 brings us to Jacksonville, where a scalding-hot Jaguars team will host the Bengals. Jacksonville has won seven of their last eight games and is still just one game out of the No. 1 seed in the AFC. The Jaguars also want to maintain a two-game lead in the AFC South, with both the Colts and Texans carrying 7-5 records.
Here is my favorite prop bet for tonight’s Monday Night matchup!
Trevor Lawrence Under 15.5 Rushing Yards
(-110, Bet365)
This is a need-based prop. I don’t project Trevor Lawrence running a lot in a game that the Jaguars are substantial 10-point favorites.
Per our FTN Fantasy tool, Lawrence runs substantially less in games where Jacksonville is a home favorite.
In home games where Jacksonville has been a field goal or higher favorite, Lawrence has experienced a 28.7% drop in his rushing yardage, averaging 1.5 fewer yards per game than tonight’s prop. The Bengals do not generate a ton of pressure on the quarterback, averaging just 2.0 sacks per game over the past three contests. The Jacksonville offensive line has also been elite at limiting quarterback sacks, which also reduces the need for Lawrence to scramble. The Jaguars have allowed the third-fewest sacks (25) on the season, ranking just behind the Packers (24) and 49ers (23).
Lawrence has fallen short of this number in three of the past four games, including zero rushing yards last week in the win at Houston. Since suffering a knee injury against the Colts in Week 6, the Jaguars have stressed discretion to Lawrence in his rushing attempts. The Bengals do allow the fourth-most rushing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks, but they have faced elite rushing quarterbacks in Lamar Jackson (twice), Joshua Dobbs (with Arizona) and Josh Allen (Buffalo).
I project tonight as a comfortable Jacksonville win, which should limit the need for Lawrence to take risks on the ground. This line is set at 13.5 rushing yards at most books, so we will take the extra two yards at Bet365.
Pick: Trevor Lawrence Under 15.5 Rushing Yards
