Matt’s Musings | NFL Data Study, Week 18

Every Monday, I find myself in a bit of NFL data purgatory. We’re waiting for the week to come to a proper ending, and the data is still yet to be finalized. It’s a great time, however, to look at some historical trends and do some digging on some things we can leverage in the upcoming week. This piece will be out on Tuesdays, but it won’t have the same format or topic each week. The formula will change as I poke around with the data we have access to here. It’ll just be my musings on something that caught my eye. If there’s something to it, I’ll give you some way to leverage the conclusions in fantasy for the upcoming week.

Is it possible to be “too close” to the end zone?

In keeping with the theme of looking into things announcers (or maybe your uncles) say during football games, we’re going to see what happens once a team is close to the end zone. There’s a recurring idea that there’s not enough space for teams to pass once they’re inside the red zone. It got me thinking about how teams are able to set up their offense as space gets limited and what they should be prioritizing. 

I put up a Twitter poll that asked if the respondent would rather have:

• First-and-10 from the opponent’s 12
• First-and-goal from the opponent’s 8

The results were 70-30 in favor of getting the ball at the opponent’s 8 rather than the 12. There are logical reasons for wanting either. A first-and-10 from a bit further out gives you an extra chance at a first down, which could allow you to call plays differently and might even lead to more fourth-down attempts. A first-and-goal from just inside the 10 is closer and therefore offers a higher probability of scoring a touchdown.

In a vacuum, then, you’d think the case is closed. Teams should always prefer scenarios with higher scoring probabilities and therefore a first-and-10 from just inside the 10-yard line should be the preferred option. But, what happens during that first-down play is important as well.

What do teams do when they’re close to the goal line?

On first-and-10 in this area of the field, teams run. They run a lot. Teams are slightly more pass-heavy when they’re outside of the 10, compared to just inside of the 10. 

We know – from a macro perspective, at least – that passing is generally better than rushing. It makes intuitive sense that teams are slightly more likely to pass on first down. 

When are teams more successful? 

If we break down the categories so that it reflects the yard line of the offense and their play call on first down, we can hone in on how a team’s decision changes things. 

When teams are just outside the 10, passing is the better option by a fair margin. Once they get inside the 10, the logic flips and they’re better off running. There’s also the risk of turnovers. Whether it’s just inside or outside of the 10, the turnover rates are higher on passes than on runs, which makes intuitive sense. 

Overall, though, teams are still more likely to score a touchdown on a pass inside the 15 until they get to about the 3-yard line. So, while teams are willing to start off with a run, they’re still more likely to find the end zone with a pass. It seems that the opponent’s 3-yard line is where teams actually run out of room, rather than immediately once they enter the red zone.