Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Week 13 of the NFL season is just about over, but it isn’t too early to get a head start on fantasy football in Week 14, right?
Here are some of the matchups that stand out at first glance.
Saints RBs vs. New York Jets
Alvin Kamara hasn’t played since Week 9, but if he returns to action in Week 14, he could make up for his absence with a massive performance. The Saints face a Jets defense that surrenders fantasy points to opposing backfields at an alarming rate. They just allowed Miles Sanders and Kenneth Gainwell to combine for 174 yards and a touchdown Sunday; for the season, the Jets are coughing up a league-worst 1.8 rushing touchdowns per game. When we last saw Kamara and Mark Ingram in the same game, Kamara’s snaps were down a bit. He isn’t going to return to his 25-carry days, but you don’t need elite volume to smash against the Jets, as they have allowed multiple running backs to score touchdowns against them plenty of different times this season. Finally, no team in football is allowing more points per drive (2.75) than the Jets, with opposing offenses scoring points on 50% of drives against New York, the highest rate in football.
Cam Newton vs. Atlanta Falcons
Cam Newton struggled before Carolina’s bye, and now they have a new offensive coordinator, which makes things a bit complicated. Still, the matchup against the Atlanta defense is extremely favorable, as they are allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, while also coughing up 26.1 rushing yards per game to the position, good for the third-most in the NFL. The Falcons are also allowing the third-most points per drive this season (2.44), as well as the second-most yards (35.4) and plays (6.5) per drive. The absence of Christian McCaffrey definitely hurts this offense, but it could also really solidify Newton’s role at the goal line against a Falcons team allowing offenses to score touchdowns on 66.7% of their red zone trips this year, the seventh-worst rate in football.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Clyde Edwards-Helaire has been back for two games now. During that span, the sophomore running back has logged just under 50% of the snaps, which isn’t great. However, he is averaging a healthy 15.5 touches per game during that span and even scored a goal-line touchdown. He’s still the top back in this offense and while the Chiefs offense hasn’t been the same, this is a great spot for them. The Raiders have been awful against running backs this season and actually allowed Darrel Williams to score over 30 fantasy points in the first meeting.
Elijah Moore vs. New Orleans Saints
Elijah Moore has quickly become the clear top pass-catcher for the Jets. He is coming off another impressive outing, catching six passes for 77 yards and a touchdown. After a 12-target game, Moore now has a target share of at least 30% in each of his last three games, two of which have come with Zach Wilson under center, which is very promising. Corey Davis continues to deal with a groin injury so Moore could once again see all the targets he can handle against a Saints pass defense that ranks bottom-10 against receivers this season. They also remain a pass funnel unit, as 72.1% of the yardage against them has come through the air, the sixth-highest rate in the league.
Cowboys WRs vs. Washington Football Team
Washington’s defense has been better as lately, but the Football team’s secondary won’t be able to match the trio of CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup. Their 6.0% passing touchdown rate allowed this year is the highest mark in football, while 74.3% of the yardage surrendered by Washington has been via the pass, which is the third-highest rate in the league. Lamb is a must-start every week, while Cooper should be trusted now that he likely won’t be limited. However, in this spot, I’d have no problem inserting Gallup into your WR3 or flex spot.
