Mad Props, Week 16: Mandatory wager on Montgomery against the Jags?

Each week our -EV bettors do their damnedest to drain bank accounts with their NFL player prop picks. Fade or follow? That, as always, is entirely up to you. Speaking as transparency advocates, we’ll track our coolers’ progress, good or horribly bad, all season long. Below is a six-pack of picks all from our own Brad Evans to whet your Week 16 whistle. All lines are pulled from DraftKings Sportsbook. Use the FTN Bets Prop Shop tool for all the best lines:

Prop 1: David Montgomery 80.5 rush yards at Jacksonville

The pick — OVER. Running roughshod through gelatinous adversaries the last five weeks, #MandatoryMontgomery has lived up to this numbskull’s every expectation. He has powered through contact decisively, shaken defenders in the open field and logged numerous second-level runs. Topping the proposed total in four of his last six games, he’s a strong 100-yard candidate this week against hapless Jaguars. This season, Jacksonville, gutted repeatedly in the trenches, has allowed 4.54 yards per carry, 117.1 rush yards per game and 16 total touchdowns to RBs. Eight rushers have surpassed 81 ground yards against them. Scorching at the right time, Monty claws his way to at least 90.

Prop 2: Jalen Hurts 55.5 rush yards at Dallas

The pick — OVER. The talk of the town, Hurts has doled out serious punishment since supplanting turnover prone Carson Wentz three weeks ago. His blend of power, speed and savvy within Doug Pederson’s revamped RPO-centered offense wrecked New Orleans and Arizona. In those two contests, he racked ground totals of 106 and 63 yards. Additionally, his effectiveness as a passer is sure to keep defenses bewildered. This week matched against Little D, he should keep his foot firmly planted on the accelerator. On the year, the Cowboys have given up 5.0 yards per carry. Similar to Kyler Murray (74 yards) and Lamar Jackson (94) before him, Hurts blasts Dallas with plentiful chunk runs.

Prop 3: Jonathan Taylor 53.5 rush yards at Pittsburgh

The pick — OVER. The blatant disrespect. Sportsbooks simply refuse to accept the new reality in Indy — it’s Taylor time. The rookie rusher’s full potential has become realized. Over his last three games, he’s amassed 3.53 yards after contact per attempt, 0.37 avoided tackles per attempt and four touchdowns. He’s also eclipsed the 90 rush yards mark in four consecutive games. The Steelers, who’ve absorbed myriad injuries, remain mostly uncompromised up front. This year, they’ve allowed 3.83 yards per carry and 78.7 rush yards per game. In total, seven RBs have surpassed the above number, including Giovani Bernard last week. Given Taylor’s break-tackle abilities should easily join the over club.

Prop 4: Derrick Henry 103.5 rush yards at Green Bay

The pick — OVER. After sweatless dispenses of Farleigh Dickinson and Chicago St., Henry enters the final round of his late-season invitational with a matchup against Horizon League bottom feeder Wisconsin-Green Bay. Expect another trouncing. The Packers have given up 4.5 yards per carry, 92.5 rush yards per game and four 100-yard rushers this season. Henry, and his steamrolling ways, is no match for the flimsy front. Top-five in YAC per attempt and with at least 133 ground yards to his name in four his past five games, he should again bulldoze his way to a handsome payday for over backers. December, after all, is Henry’s month.

Prop 5: DK Metcalf 5.5 receptions versus the Los Angeles Rams

The pick — UNDER. Metcalf, similar to being trapped in a conversation with your conspiracy theory-weaving uncle at the holiday dinner table, enters into a very awkward matchup. Jalen Ramsey (75.6 passer rating allowed), one of the most unforgiving DBs in the league, certainly has his number. The last time the pair squared off, in Week 10, DK grabbed just two passes for 28 yards. Nine wideouts have grabbed six receptions or more versus the Rams this season. Excessive jawing is sure to occur. Bank on Ramsey backing up the smack.

BONUS TD prop! Giovani Bernard (+120) at Houston

The Texans’ turnstile is well-greased and fully prepared to usher in another RB scorer. Enter Bernard. After scoring a pair of TDs in last week’s shocking upending of Pittsburgh, he’s once again lassoed command of the Bengals backfield. A running back has crossed the chalk in 13 of 14 games against Houston. Bernard, and his spectacular lip sweater, is sure to envelop backers in monetary warmth.