Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Lamar Jackson has been one of the NFL’s most polarizing players since he took over as the Baltimore Ravens starting quarterback four years ago. Jackson’s 2022 prop bets suggest that his passing yards and passing touchdowns will be up from a disappointing 2021 campaign.
Jackson has an over/under of 3,550.5 passing yards at DraftKings Sportsbook for the 2022 regular season. The quarterback’s prop bet for passing touchdowns is 24.5 TDs.
A bone bruise in his ankle limited Jackson to 12 starts last season. Baltimore’s signal-caller had 2,882 passing yards, 16 passing touchdowns, 13 interceptions and an 87.0 passer rating. The Ravens posted a losing record and missed the playoffs for the first time with Jackson under center.
Even in what was a down year by his standards, Jackson was still selected to the Pro Bowl. The Ravens went 7-5 in games that Jackson started. He added 767 rushing yards on 5.8 yards per carry.
Jackson has proven to have an incredibly high ceiling. The quarterback won the 2019 NFL MVP award unanimously in just his second NFL season. Not only did he set the single-season record for rushing yards as a quarterback, but Jackson led the league in passing touchdowns and had a 113.3 passer rating.
Jackson and the Ravens are favored to win the AFC North over the reigning conference champion Cincinnati Bengals. What kind of numbers will Jackson put up following the worst full season of his young career?
Let’s take a look at the odds for Jackson’s passing totals in the 2022 NFL season and the best bet for each prop.
Lamar Jackson Prop Bets for 2022
Use the FTN Bets Prop Shop to find which sportsbook has the best odds for different player prop bets.
How Many Passing Yards Will Lamar Jackson Have In 2022?
Under 3,550.5 Yards (-110, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Jackson has never thrown for 3,550 yards in any of his three full seasons as Baltimore’s starter. The quarterback had a career-high 3,127 passing yards during his 2019 MVP campaign, but he failed to even reach 2,900 yards in either of the next two seasons. Jackson can return to the MVP conversation while falling short of the total for his passing yards prop.
Jackson did average 240.2 passing yards per game in 2021, which was well above the 208.9-yard average that he would need to go over 3,550.5 yards in 17 games. The 25-year-old was limited to 12 games because of injuries. Jackson’s style of play increases his risk of getting hurt. Considering how effective Jackson is at using his legs, he won’t be playing much differently anytime soon.
Mark Andrews emerged as one of the NFL’s elite tight ends last season. As far as wide receiving corps go, the Ravens have one of the worst groups in the NFL. After trading Marquise Brown, Baltimore has to hope that Rashod Bateman can be a reliable No. 1 receiver in his second year. There isn’t a single wide receiver on the Ravens depth chart who has more than two years of experience or more than 515 career receiving yards.
How Many Touchdown Passes Will Lamar Jackson Throw In 2022?
Over 24.5 TDs (-110, DraftKings Sportsbook)
A healthy Jackson allows the Ravens to have one of the NFL’s most dynamic offenses. No team scored more points from 2019-2020 than Baltimore. Injuries across Baltimore’s entire roster made the 2021 season an uphill climb for the Ravens. If Baltimore experiences better luck in 2022, Jackson is more than capable of throwing 25-plus touchdown passes.
Jackson only needed 15 games to throw for 26 touchdowns in 2020. His 36 touchdown passes in 2019 were the most in the league. Before suffering his 2021 season-ending injury in Week 11, Jackson was on pace to hit 25 passing touchdowns. If left tackle Ronnie Stanley and the Ravens backfield can come back healthy, the chances are even greater that Jackson will have a bounce-back 2022 campaign.
There are few quarterbacks who are more difficult to defend near the goal line than Jackson. Even during an up-and-down 2021 campaign, Jackson was one of only four starters who turned at least half of his pass attempts inside the 10-yard line into touchdowns. During his MVP season, 16 of Jackson’s 28 passes inside the 10-yard line went for scores.
How to Bet Lamar Jackson Props
Player prop bets aren’t only available for individual games. Sportsbooks allow bettors to wager on player totals for the entire season.
Once you’ve set up an account with a sportsbook that operates in your state and you’ve deposited money, you’re ready to bet on player futures. In the player props section, quarterbacks are given a passing yards total, along with odds for both the over and the under.
Lamar Jackson’s regular-season passing yards total, for example, is 3,550.5 yards. The over and the under both have -110 odds. When the odds have a minus sign, the number represents how much money you would have to risk in order to make $100 for a winning bet.
A winning $110 bet on Jackson to throw under 3,550.5 yards would result in a profit of $100. In total, $210 should be added to your account, including a $100 profit and the $110 you originally wagered. A winning $100 bet on Jackson’s under for passing yards would come with a $90.91 profit.
Check out the FTN Bets Parlay Calculator to see how much you’d win based on the odds and amount wagered.
