Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
There were some significant shifts in my fantasy football projections based on the events from the 2022 NFL Draft. Below, I share observations from four interesting teams, as well as a snapshot at the starters’ projected yardage and fantasy points for the upcoming 2022 season.
Jalen Hurts and the Eagles’ Offense
Jalen Hurts has a strong case for biggest fantasy football winner after the 2022 NFL Draft. The Eagles traded for A.J. Brown, and a WR core that gave significant snaps to both Jalen Reagor and Quez Watkins last season now has Brown and DeVonta Smith firmly atop the depth chart, with Zach Pascal mixing in as the team’s likely WR3.
In 2021, the Eagles were above average in both time between snaps (26.6 seconds) and plays per 60 minutes (63.1 plays). This is in direct contrast with the Eagles’ league-high team run rate (49.9%), as pass-heavy teams can often execute more plays per game. The top six in plays per game last season were the Ravens, Cowboys, Buccaneers, Chiefs, Chargers and Bills. All those teams had an above-average pass rate aside from the Ravens — who ranked 22nd.
With that context in place, the Eagles project to be more pass-heavy as a team in 2022 with the Brown addition. I have nearly 70% of Eagles targets funneling to the trio of Brown, Smith and Dallas Goedert in 2022, and none of those three jumps off the page with projections. I have Brown at 13.7 PPR points per game currently, which is roughly the same as his disappointing 2021 season. Smith is below Brown, and Goedert slightly below Smith.
However, the league-winning fantasy points project to come from Jalen Hurts. Last season, thanks to FTN Data’s game charters, we know Hurts scrambled on just over 9% of the Eagles’ designed pass plays. Even when increasing their overall team pass rate after the Brown trade, Hurts’ rushing volume should be largely preserved. After running for a league-high 784 yards over 15 games with the 2nd most carries per game (9.3), I expect Hurts to only regress slightly in this area.
His 10 rushing touchdowns during the regular season shouldn’t come down too much, if at all, in 2022 either, as the overall quality of the offense has increased. A small sample size, but nearly 15% of Hurts’ dropbacks within 10 yards of the goal line resulted in QB scrambles.
Hurts was the QB6 in fantasy points per game in his first year as a starter with rookie Smith, three games without Goedert and heavy snap shares for both Watkins and Reagor. Hurts now projects as my QB2 for 2022, behind only Josh Allen; fortunately for us, Hurts has a consensus ADP on Underdog Fantasy of QB9, so we can wait and snag him in Round 5 or 6 in drafts.
Below you’ll find more insight on my Eagles’ projections for 2022. I’ll be logging changes throughout the week, but this snapshot on May 3rd is a solid indication of how I’m viewing this offense overall. A quick note for all the projections graphics: I don’t project injuries unless we know a player won’t be healthy to begin 2022, so all totals assume 17 games played.
Skyy is the limit in Kansas City
The Kansas City Chiefs have been no worse than sixth in the NFL in points scored each season of Patrick Mahomes’ career. The team traded away Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce turns 33 in October. But, it’s still an Andy Reid-led offense that’s been toward the top of the league in pass rate each of the past four seasons, and more importantly, the team still has Mahomes.
We are now entering Phase 2 of Mahomes’ career, and his 2022 collection of weapons is still strong enough. For the first time in several years though, a Chiefs receiver is underrated in fantasy football. After Kelce’s 2019 and 2020 target shares were 23.6% and 24.2%, respectively, his 2021 total dropped down to 20.9%. Possibly a reflection of his age, Kelce’s yards per route run was substantially lower than the prior three seasons. Balancing the loss of Tyreek Hill with Kelce turning 33 by Week 4, I have his baseline target share at 22% for the 2022 season.
In both years of the Clyde Edwards-Helaire era, 112 targets went to Chiefs RBs. I don’t foresee this number rising or falling much for 2022, with no major RB moves made this past offseason to bring in a pass-catching back — like Buffalo did by drafting James Cook in Round 2. This leaves roughly 60% of the targets for the team’s wide receivers.
After three disappointing seasons, we can assume the Mecole Hardman experiment is largely over, and I have a difficult time projecting significant 2022 opportunity for him. His average target depth has come down significantly each year in the league, and his 11.7 yards per reception last season reflects his close to the line of scrimmage, gadget-type role.
Hardman is now competing for targets with free agent acquisition JuJu Smith-Schuster, who commanded 17.8% (2019) and 20.3% (2020) of the Steelers’ targets — throwing out his injury-shortened 2021 season — and also operates in the slot, close to the line of scrimmage. The four games of 2021 prior to injury were highly concerning, as Juju had fewer targets through four games than Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool and Najee Harris, even though both Johnson and Claypool each missed one of those four initial games. Juju’s underlying efficiency metrics have all trended down since his 1,426-yard explosion in 2018, and there’s serious questions about his 2022 outlook after signing a one-year deal paying him only $3.25 million in guarantees.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling signed a three-year, $30 million contract with the Chiefs this offseason, and his profile is a pure deep threat. His yards per reception during his four-year career reads as: 15.3, 17.4, 20.9, 16.5. His career catch rate is under 50% despite playing with the highly accurate Aaron Rodgers each season, and his career-high target share is only 14.1%. He will function, once again, as a pure deep threat on the outside.
This brings us to Skyy Moore, the Chiefs’ Round 2 selection at Pick 54 in the 2022 NFL Draft. In high school, he played quarterback and cornerback so well that Western Michigan offered him a football scholarship. Upon arriving, he tested out wide receiver, a position he had never played before. He led that 2019 Western Michigan team with 802 receiving yards as a true freshman with no prior experience at the position. The kid is a natural. His yards per game improved all three seasons, and his junior year saw him catch 95 balls for 1,292 yards — over 39% of the team’s total receiving yardage.
It cannot be overstated how impressive it is for a small school receiver who only played five games as a sophomore in 2020 — due to COVID-19 — to declare early for the draft and get selected in Round 2. He demonstrated the ability to command high volume all three college seasons and was proficient both out wide and in the slot. I expect him to be the Chiefs’ WR1 by midseason, as none of Smith-Schuster, Valdes-Scantling or Hardman projects as a team’s primary receiver.
JuJu, MVS and Hardman are all solid role players, with Kelce and Moore the only receiving options with the potential to consistently command 20% or more of Mahomes’ targets. I have Moore with an aggressive 18% target share right now, due to his prospect profile, draft capital, and the other receiving options on the depth chart. He has a clear path to being the most productive 2022 rookie WR, and he’s someone I’d feel comfortable drafting as early as Round 7, where JuJu currently goes in early best ball drafts. In a few early drafts I’ve participated in, Moore goes Round 9 or later, providing value for us in fantasy football.
Below you can see more detail for my Chiefs projections.
Other Quick-Hitting Notes
Da Bears
The Bears’ receiving depth chart is still a bare cupboard after Darnell Mooney and Cole Kmet. The team added Byron Pringle and Equanimeous St. Brown in free agency before drafting six-year college receiver Velus Jones in Round 3, who projects as a gadget player at the next level.
Pringle’s career-high target share is 9.5%, and he’s never even sniffed the top-75 in targets per route run. St. Brown commanded just over 8% of the Packers’ targets in 2018 when he was on the field, and his production has seriously waned since then. Last season, Mooney and Kmet commanded nearly 45% of the team’s targets when on the field, and I expect that number to rise to around 50% in 2022. Both are sneaky players to target in case the Bears’ pass volume rises in 2022.
Jets Taking Flight
The Jets have a strong chance to be this year’s most improved offense, as Zach Wilson will be heading into year two with a massive supporting cast upgrade. Right now, I have 60% of Wilson’s pass attempts funneling to Elijah Moore, Corey Davis and Garrett Wilson, who they took at Pick 10 in this year’s draft. Behind them, Braxton Berrios is more than capable as a fourth option in the wide receiver room.
The TE room has stable veterans C.J. Uzomah and Tyler Conklin, and the RB room has a future star in Breece Hall, along with a capable pass-catching back in Michael Carter. The Jets had the fewest team rush attempts (380) last season, with slightly above-average passing volume. I expect the team to become more balanced, yet I have only a modest decrease in total pass attempts, due to projecting substantial progress for the offense overall. The Jets averaged a paltry 5.9 yards per pass attempt last year, and I have Zach Wilson at 7.0 yards per attempt in 2022 thanks to projected maturation and the greatly improved skill player core surrounding him. We know year two QBs can be volatile, with second year breakouts happening for many QBs, including Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson and Jared Goff. I’ll likely rank Zach Wilson higher than his current base projection due to this profile’s upside.
