Is Trey Lance a fantasy football QB1 if he starts in 2022?

Has there ever been a QB the fantasy football community has hyped up more — before they’ve truly been a starter — than Trey Lance?

Last season — as a backup rookie QB — the fantasy world still drafted him in the 10th round in the tail-end QB1 range, right around Joe Burrow.

The most commonly used word with Lance is “upside,” and it’s true that he’s dripping with it. “A cross between Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson” feels like where the hype has gotten on him on occasion, and even if that’s a bit of an exaggeration, it at least gives you an idea of the potential.

Is Trey Lance a fantasy QB1 if he’s the starter in 2022?

The answer is yes.

He’ll be drafted as a fantasy QB1 (top-12 QB), and it’s difficult to envision a non-injured world in which he doesn’t finish within the top 12, too. 

In 2021, Lance played two full games as a spot starter and one half in relief. In his half of football, he managed to finish as the QB15 on the week with 157 passing yards and 2 TDs to go along with 41 rushing yards. In his two weeks as a full starter, Lance disappointed in one, finishing as the QB20 (192 yards, 0 pass TDs, 89 rushing yards), and met expectations in the other, finishing as the QB10 with 249 pass yards, 2 pass TDs and 31 rushing yards.

In the week where he finished as the QB20, he scored a whopping 11 fantasy points under expectation. That’s about 3 pass TDs’ worth of fantasy points left on the table. So even in the down week, the upside was still evident. The efficiency just wasn’t there that week.

A new Konami Code QB 

“Konami Code QB” means dual-threat rushing-passing QBs. Think names like Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen and Kyler Murray. Lance will be added to those ranks.

Here’s the real reason to be obsessed with Lance: According to FTN Data, last year, among QBs who played at least 150 snaps, Lance ranked second behind only Josh Allen in fantasy points per snap. 

Allen is the best of company, considering he’s been the overall fantasy QB1 in back-to-back years. This stat is even more impressive when considering that in Lance’s 2.5 games as a starter, he didn’t actually rush for any TDs. There’s even more upside left to be unlocked.

We know rushing TDs will happen. They designed plays for him near the goal line both in the preseason (see below) and in the regular season when he subbed in for Jimmy Garoppolo in certain packages:

The 49ers are loaded with talent

QBs are usually the ones that have to elevate their teammates to be considered great. But it doesn’t hurt to already have a proven, incredible supporting cast.

Here’s the situation Lance walks into, assuming Tom Brady doesn’t un-retire and put the Lance show on hold for another year:

• All-Pro Deebo Samuel
• All-Pro George Kittle
• Breakout WR candidate Brandon Aiyuk
• Best run game scheme in the league with depth at RB
• One of the league’s top defenses to keep the field short and keep giving the ball back to the offense

The 49ers arguably have the best roster in the league if Lance pans out.