Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
When 2023 best ball drafts came to a close, Justin Herbert was being drafted as QB7 and within the top 50 players overall.
This year, he’s down to QB14 – 115th overall in Underdog ADP.
The slide is justified. He lost Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, but has he officially become a value? Let’s take a deeper look at Herbert, who is one of the biggest sliders from 2023 to 2024.
The Losses
Allen and Williams have been Herbert’s go-to receivers for the last four years. Now that all changes. And it’s not good on the surface.
According to FTN’s NFL Splits tool, Herbert’s stats are down across the board in games without both Allen and Williams.
The first crazy stat is that in four years, Herbert played just 37 games with both Allen and Williams (just 59% of the time!). But he was clearly better for fantasy with both weapons. He threw for 40 more yards and about 0.5 more TDs per game with both WRs. As a result, his fantasy PPG was 4 points higher.
So, yeah, losing Allen and Williams is bad for Herbert.
It’s not just Allen and Williams who are gone. Austin Ekeler is out of town too. Sure, Ekeler was “just a running back,” but he earned 74 targets last year (sixth among RBs), 128 the year before (first) and 94 the year before that (also first). From 2021-2023 combined, Ekeler’s 296 targets were more than DeAndre Hopkins and tied with Tee Higgins. His 15% target market share was second among all RBs in that span, behind only Aaron Jones.
The Coaching Change
Jim Harbaugh loves running. He’s like a time traveler from the football days of yesteryear.
Last year at Michigan, Harbaugh’s team had 315 pass attempts and 484 rushing attempts. And that was with a QB projected to go in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft.
I’m not going to really dive into this section because the point is obvious – run-first coach equals less passing equals less good for QB fantasy points. Combine this coaching philosophy change with the loss of weapons, and it’s no wonder Herbert’s ADP has plummeted.
Has Herbert Become a Value?
Herbert’s ADP has not stopped sliding:
But it has reached such low levels that he’s starting to look like a value. Here are the 15 QBs going before Herbert:
- The obvious: Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, C.J. Stroud, Anthony Richardson, Joe Burrow, Dak Prescott
- The less obvious: Jordan Love, Kyler Murray, Brock Purdy
- The questionable: Caleb Williams, Tua Tagovailoa
Okay, so QB15 isn’t that insane as things stand right now. The best you can probably do without really reaching is QB12 or QB13. Maybe you could argue QB10 if you’re a big “talent over weapons” believer. But all of the players going ahead of him have unquestionably better support.
With that said, Herbert is in that first tier when it comes to talent. He has a literal laser beam rocket for an arm. And his injuries last year were brutal for QBs. He started 2023 (the year, not the season) with a torn shoulder labrum. Offseason surgery ensued. It seemed he was back to normal at the start of the season, but I’d argue being even further removed from this surgery is a good thing. Then he broke fingers on both hands during the 2023 season. Messed up shoulders and fingers are as bad as it gets for QBs. Giving him an entire year-plus to recover from all of this is huge.
And are we not forgetting the obvious: The Chargers are very likely going to draft an elite WR at No. 5 overall later this month in the draft. With J.J. McCarthy gaining steam, it’s possible we see the draft start with four straight QBs. That would leave Marvin Harrison on the board at five for the Chargers. If Harrison goes, the Chargers would have their choice between Malik Nabers and Rome Odunze. Maybe the Chargers even double splash and take someone like Ladd McConkey at the start of Round 2 on Day 2.
Point being: The Chargers current receiver room – Quentin Johnston, Joshua Palmer, Derius Davis, Simi Fehoko – is about to look a lot better real soon. And Johnston was a first-round pick last year, too. His early work has “bust” written all over it, but let’s give him another year before making it official.
TLDR: Yes, Herbert is a value right now. I’d expect his ADP to jump at least a round after the Chargers take an elite rookie WR at No. 5 overall, especially if it ends up being Harrison..
