Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 7

The NFL season is heating up, as we’re nearly at midseason! As you’ll see across FTN, there will be numerous pieces of content, as well as our terrific statistical tools available to all subscribers. If you haven’t already joined our Discord server, I certainly recommend doing so, as our experts generally find time throughout the week for open discussions, as well as to answer any questions you may have. This article will cover a trio of my favorite first-look NFL bets for this week’s slate of games. All three plays will additionally be located in our Bet Tracker, but all the analysis surrounding each play can be found below.

Week 7 Gross Bombs

Justin Jefferson 90+ Receiving Yards 

-122, FanDuel Sportsbook

Does anyone know what Justin Jefferson has done against this Lions secondary throughout his career? In eight career meetings, Jefferson has averaged 7.8 receptions and 134.1 receiving yards per game. He’s additionally gone over the century mark in six of those eight meetings. Now, he had Kirk Cousins in most of those, but his numbers with Sam Darnold haven’t differentiated much from with Cousins. Looking through Jefferson’s FTN player page, he’s averaging 10.5 yards per target, right in line with his 10.7 average from last season. Additionally, Jefferson’s aDOT has increased from 12.6 to 13.1, while he’s seen his highest air yards share (46%) since 2021. Per our WR/CB Tool, Jefferson has the best matchup on the Week 7 slate, with a 99.9 rating. While 90 or more receiving yards may seem steep, I have Jefferson clearing the number by a considerable amount. Give me Jefferson 90+ receiving yards as a multiple unit play. 

Malik Nabers Over 6.5 Receptions 

-114, FanDuel

Next, can anyone explain this line to me? Anyone?! Nabers missed two weeks with a concussion and oddsmakers seemingly forgot his target share to begin the season. Per our FTN StatsHub, after a bit of a lackluster debut, Nabers rebounded nicely over the next three weeks, posting a ridiculous 42.1% target share, 11% higher than the next-best pass-catcher. Inside that number, Nabers averaged 15 targets per game and 10 receptions per game. Nabers has the eighth-best matchup of the week opposite fellow rookie Quinyon Mitchell, per our WR/CB Tool. I probably would have played this at 7.5 receptions as well, so 6.5 screams value. Give me the over with the Giants likely playing with a negative game script in this one.

Kansas City Chiefs Moneyline 

+108, FanDuel

We can sit here all day and talk about Patrick Mahomes’ regression and frankly, I don’t buy any of it. Yes, the Rashee Rice injury hurts this offense, but it’s not like they don’t still have Travis Kelce, Xavier Worthy and the resurgence of JuJu Smith-Schuster Additionally, when has it ever been wise to bet against Mahomes, the underdog? As a road underdog, Mahomes and the Chiefs are an incredible 9-2-0 straight up, 10-0-1 against the spread and since 2019, they are 6-0 straight up. That includes the postseason as well. Andy Reid is additionally 21-4 coming off a bye week. Give me the Chiefs on the moneyline.