Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Our FTN Fantasy tools and stats provide so much detail and insight on players. The release this week of our FTN StatsHub provides subscribers with the most powerful NFL insights available. When making preseason draft decisions or facing in-season start/sit dilemmas, having access to our robust database is a huge advantage over your competition. Each week will provide a deep dive into one of our core stats here at FTN Fantasy and highlights the strengths or weaknesses of certain players.
First Quarter Running Back Usage
We always like our fantasy teams to start strong on a weekly basis. Using StatsHub, let’s take a closer look at our base running back usage in the first quarter.
Look no further than StatsHub for a sign of Kyle Shanahan’s greatness as a playcaller. Rostering lead 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey is always a blessing but was particularly fruitful in the opening quarters last season. McCaffrey saw a whopping 88.1% snap share during the opening frame of San Francisco games, almost six full percentage points better than Jacksonville’s Travis Etienne.
Beyond McCaffrey (and Shanahan’s) greatness, we can also identify which running backs saw the most scoring opportunities during the first quarter. Sorting the above table by red zone carries, we see a high correlation between successful offenses and lead running back opportunities.
It is not a surprise to see lead running backs such as Detroit’s David Montgomery lead the way in early-game touches, but there are some interesting trends to consider as you draft your fantasy teams.
- Jonathan Taylor (5.10) essentially equaled McCaffrey (5.18) in first-quarter rushing attempts per game. However, none of those games came with Anthony Richardson under center for Indianapolis.
- Tampa Bay’s Rachaad White saw positional-leading first quarter usage, totaling the third-highest number of first-quarter carries (68) and seventh-most red zone rushing attempts (11) of any other running back. Will that usage continue in 2024? White is currently being drafted as the overall RB15 with an ADP of 63.9 on our Underdog ADP Tool.
- Derrick Henry saw the second-most first-quarter rushes (79) but the 16th-most red zone rushing attempts (8). The Titans ranked just 27th in team scoring (17.9 PPG).
- Aaron Jones (15) and AJ Dillon (11) both ranked inside the top eight in first quarter red zone rushing attempts. This indicates the Packers have a strong first-quarter offense and prefer to run the ball in the red zone. With Jones now in Minnesota, new Green Bay RB1 Josh Jacobs is currently being drafted as the overall RB12, with explosive rookie MarShawn Lloyd going as the RB44. No one is drafting Dillon (RB65), who could still win the RB2 job during the preseason.
- Denver head coach Sean Payton remains one of the top offensive minds in the NFL, especially in the first quarter. Despite a disappointing season, Javonte Williams tied for the fourth-most first quarter red zone rushing attempts (14). Williams is currently carrying an ADP outside of the top-24 rushers as RB34. Could he be one of the best values in all of fantasy football?
