Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The sweepstakes for biggest loser in fantasy football has officially announced a winner.
Congratulations, Ronald Jones.
Leonard Fournette, who posted an image of himself in Tampa threads on social media, all but confirmed he is signing with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, a colossal development with ripple effects that will surely disrupt those who just drafted.
Condolences if affected.
And hat tip to those who took advantage of a soft market.
Make no mistake, Fournette is back in fantasy investor good graces. Tampa is pushing the chip stack all in. With an ancient, but still impactful, Tom Brady at the controls and featuring an embarrassment of riches at every offensive position — Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Rob Gronkowski and O.J. Howard — the jettisoned Jag is sure to benefit from plentiful stacked boxes, which he rarely witnessed just a few miles northeast of his new locale. Last season, he witnessed eight-plus men in the box 31.7% of the time. Don’t be surprised if that number cuts in half.
Some will admonish the veteran because of unburied hatchets, an unwise move. Yes, he was terribly inefficient inside the red zone a season ago — he scored just three TDs despite the sixth-most red-zone carries — but is he entirely to blame? The simple answer is no. Jacksonville called pass on 71% of its snaps inside the 20. Point blank, it didn’t feed its tackle-breaking beast near the goal line nearly enough. His laudable production in other areas, in particular yards after contact per attempt (3.34, RB11), missed tackle percentage (19.9%) and yards created per carry (RB24), suggest he’s not some sloughing, belly-dragging sloth.
Tampa’s offensive line must congeal quickly, but the setup is magnificent. At a minimum he’s a top-20 running back who should command 65-70% of the opportunity share, most of his touches coming on early downs and, most importantly, near the end zone. Bank on 1,200 combined yards and 7-9 total TDs. And that could be conservative.
RIP, RoJo. RIP, Ke'Shawn Vaughn. Dare Ogunbowale, you’re only mostly dead.
Temporarily without a heartbeat, Fournette has a new fantasy lease on life.
