Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Drafting a bunch of players who return draft-day value is a great way to have a decent fantasy football season. Win a few games, maybe squeak into the playoffs, not hate your season.
Of course, we want more than that. Your job as a drafter is to find players who will exceed value, not just return it. So today, we’re looking for players who will exceed draft day value in 2022. Maybe that means a player drafted as a starter who could end up leading his position; maybe it’s a player taken late in drafts who can return starter value. Regardless, these are the players on the rise in fantasy football in 2022.
Quarterbacks today, the rest of the positions to come.
Potential QB1 Overall
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
Lamar Jackson has shown us in the past that he belongs in this conversation every year, after his great overall QB1 finish in 2019. He finished that season with 421.68 fantasy points (the second most ever), averaging a full 5 points more per game than that year’s QB2 (Deshaun Watson). However, since that 43-touchdown (combined passing and rushing) season, we have seen a steady decline in Jackson’s output, causing his fantasy production to follow. Last season the Ravens, made it a point to start passing the ball more, resulting in Jackson getting to 382 passing attempts in just 12 games (he had 401 in 15 games in 2019). With this increased passing he produced similar stats to his 15-game 2020 campaign, we could have seen him finish as a top-five fantasy QB if he had played a full season. The problem in Jackson’s game the last two years when compared to his 2019 is touchdowns. He produced the aforementioned 43 touchdowns (36 passing, 7 rushing) in 2019, but that number fell to 33 (26 passing, 7 rushing) in 2020 and 18 (16 passing, 2 rushing) in 2021. This has led to a decline in overall production for fantasy football and cause him to slip down the rankings. With an improved and healthy Baltimore offense, finding the end zone more often should be much easier in 2022. The door is open for Jackson to return to his 2019 form, reclaiming the QB1 title.
Potential Top 5 Finisher
Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles
Jalen Hurts started last season hot, producing seven straight weeks of 20-plus fantasy points weeks and sitting behind only Tom Brady in QB fantasy scoring entering Week 8. However, the hot start came to a screeching halt then — from Week 8 on, Hurts only reached 20-plus fantasy points two more times in eight games the rest of the season. These two performances (Week 11 and Week 15) came on the back of a combined five rushing scores. But despite the struggled, he still managed to finish the season as the QB9 overall, QB6 in PPG, less than 1 point per game behind Patrick Mahomes. Now with the addition of A.J. Brown, we should expect a much-improved passing game in 2022. That should lead to more consistent fantasy production through the air, but also, the threat of Brown paired with DeVonta Smith should help open up room for Hurts to hurt teams with his legs. That should help lead Hurts to a top-five fantasy finish.
Potential Weekly Superflex Starters
Justin Fields, Chicago Bears
The Bears offense was once again in disarray in 2021, but now with Matt Nagy out of the picture, things can start to turn around. The offense features weapons like Darnell Mooney, David Montgomery and Cole Kmet. But it starts with Justin Fields. He did not come out guns a blazing as a rookie — especially as a fantasy asset — nut we did get some very nice signs of what is to come. He had eight games with 20-plus pass attempts — in those games, he averaged 6 carries for 45 yards and produced five games of double-digit fantasy points. With a solid rushing floor, Fields’ rushing ability gives him a high fantasy floor even if he struggles in the passing game. Last season, Jalen Hurts finished as the QB9 with only 3,144 passing yards on the back of 138 carries for 784 yards and 10 touchdowns. With limited weapons on the perimeter and his developing arm, we could see Fields use his legs in much the same way in 2022, especially in the red zone, where the fantasy football bills get paid. Fields’ legs should make him safely a top-15 fantasy quarterback in 2022, and if things click with his arm the ceiling is high.
Jared Goff, Detroit Lions
I know many fantasy managers wouldn’t touch Jared Goff with a 10.5-foot pole, but scooping him up late or for a discount on the trade market may pay off. In today’s fantasy football landscape, finding a steady QB2 is crucial to making your leagues fantasy playoffs, especially in superflex formats. Goff can be this for you. Last season, he finished as the QB24 despite missing three games. He set a career high in completion percentage (67.2%) while throwing for over 3,000 yards and 19 touchdowns. This offseason, the Lions added a few very nice perimeter pieces for Goff to work with. One of these is former Pro-Bowler DJ Chark, a good field stretcher with an ability to win the 50/50 ball. Another is rookie speedster Jameson Williams. Adding these two weapons should help open up this offense that already contains great playmakers like D’Andre Swift, Amon-Ra St. Brown and T.J. Hockenson. The Lions will be improved in 2022 but should still have plenty of games with negative gamescripts, resulting in a lot of passing. This is great news for all of these players as we forecast the 2022 fantasy football season, but Goff will be the man at the center. Due to this, it wouldn’t be a surprise if he’s a weekly starter in superflex in 2022.
Zach Wilson, New York Jets
This one is a bit scary considering the way Zach Wilson started the season in 2021, but we did see improvement down the stretch. It’s hard to trust a player who finished his rookie season with a 55.6% completion percentage to make a drastic leap the next year, but Wilson may be that guy. The Jets made several good moves this offseason, headlined by a great draft, making the team look like a much-improved team for 2022. That’s especially true on the offensive side of the ball, with the team adding Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson. These two playmakers will help round out a talent skill position group that already contains Corey Davis, Braxton Berrios, Elijah Moore, Michael Carter and fellow new additions C.J. Uzomah and Tyler Conklin. With all of these pieces in place, Zach Wilson won’t have to play hero ball. He can lean on the run game and make plays off play action. With players like Garrett Wilson and Elijah Moore who can make plays after the catch, we should see Wilson’s average depth of target come down in 2022 in comparison to his 7.7-yard aDOT (21st) in 2021. This would help him get the ball out quicker — in 2021 he had the second-longest time to throw in the league at 2.89 seconds. Even with improvement this year, his ceiling is limited currently, but we should expect a top-24 finish from him. This makes him a great candidate to be your QB2 slot in superflex leagues — the best part is that he is priced like a QB3 in many leagues.
