Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
It’s Week 12. Have you clinched your playoff berth yet?
The idea behind the waiver wire watchlist is trying to find players who will rise over the next month so you can grab them before they become highly sought pickups. But there’s only a month left in most fantasy regular seasons, and many leagues are already down to their last three. It’s getting down to brass tacks here; the last chance to add players to help you make that final push into the postseason.
This Waiver Wire Watchlist column uses Aaron Schatz’ DVOA metrics and FTN’s other advanced statistics and charting data to identify players whose short-term matchups make them compelling streamers and whose workload and efficiency trends have them poised for fantasy breakouts. And it aims to identify them a week before their breakouts. Why exhaust your FAAB or waiver priority to win the next J.K. Dobbins or Isaiah Likely when you can add him now for free?
Reminder: This list was put together in the lead-in to Week 12, looking forward to the players who could be popular waiver wire targets ahead of Week 13. If you have a roster spot to play with, these are free agent options you could grab early to beat the waiver buzz.
All of these players are below 50% rostership on one of ESPN or Yahoo unless otherwise specified.
Quarterback
Jameis Winston, QB, Cleveland Browns (14%/9%)
Reason: Desperation Volume
Time Frame: Rest of Season
We recommended Winston as an up-and-down volatility play last week, and he responded with 395 yards and a pair of touchdowns. When Jameis goes off, he goes off, and having a guy like that on your roster in a best ball situation or as a QB2 in a double-quarterback league is highly valuable. He’s harder to trust in one-QB leagues — he did just have that three-pick day two weeks ago, after all, and the Browns’ schedule is brutal to opposing quarterbacks the rest of the way. But if you had a quarterback you could rely on on a week-to-week basis, you wouldn’t be scouring the waiver wire in November! There will be weeks when Winston knocks you out of contention, and weeks where he practically wins you the game single-handedly. And with the Browns needing to throw early and often against much better opponents from here on out, the volume might be worth the risk.
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