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(Leading up to the 2021 NFL season, FTN’s Tyler Loechner will dive into the fantasy football numbers to bring you his Fantasy Stat of the Day, five days a week.)
The Scott Fish Bowl (SFB11) is coming up, and it’s the biggest tournament in the season-long fantasy football industry. There are also several unique scoring rules in SFB11, one of which is that RBs, WRs, and TEs get an extra 0.5 points per first down.
With that in mind, today’s Stat of the Day article will examine the RBs that had the most first-down receptions in 2020 to help you identify some players that can pad the fantasy stat sheet in SFB11.
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First-down reception leaders among RBs
The chart below shows the RBs that had the most first-down receptions in 2020.
Player |
Targets |
Receptions |
1st downs |
% of catches for 1st downs |
112 |
88 |
37 |
42% |
|
112 |
81 |
34 |
42% |
|
71 |
55 |
27 |
49% |
|
81 |
67 |
25 |
37% |
|
71 |
55 |
22 |
40% |
|
63 |
50 |
21 |
42% |
|
66 |
54 |
21 |
39% |
|
52 |
39 |
20 |
51% |
|
76 |
54 |
20 |
37% |
|
56 |
45 |
19 |
42% |
|
71 |
59 |
17 |
29% |
|
46 |
33 |
16 |
48% |
|
60 |
49 |
16 |
33% |
|
60 |
47 |
16 |
34% |
|
60 |
47 |
16 |
34% |
|
63 |
47 |
15 |
32% |
|
58 |
38 |
14 |
37% |
|
43 |
37 |
14 |
38% |
|
48 |
39 |
14 |
36% |
|
49 |
35 |
14 |
40% |
|
37 |
28 |
13 |
46% |
|
47 |
41 |
12 |
29% |
|
35 |
26 |
12 |
46% |
For starters, the correlation between receptions and first downs among RBs is extremely high. It has an R-squared of 0.95 on a scale of 0-1, with 1 being a perfect match. This means you could sort by receptions and get a similar list.
But looking a little closer at the data tells us which players are above or below average when it comes to collecting enough yards to get a first down.
At the top, Alvin Kamara laps the field with 37 first-down receptions last year. J.D. McKissic, who saw the same number of targets, had 34 targets — but no other RB had more than 30. (Of note: Christian McCaffrey had 11 first-down receptions in just three games last season.)
Just below this top group was David Montgomery, who had 27 first-down receptions and snagged a first down on nearly 50% of his catches. The only player with a higher first-down are than Montgomery was Kareem Hunt (51%). David Johnson (48% rate) was also well above average.
On the lower end of the spectrum, Mike Davis (29%) and Myles Gaskin (29%) were well below league average when it came to notching first downs, but both are set to be featured backs again in 2021, so the volume should be enough to sustain them.
Other thoughts on the data
- It’s encouraging to see Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s name on this list. He was mostly a disappointment last season, but if he’s used more in the passing game in 2021, he could really live up to last year’s expectations
- Chase Edmonds had the fifth-most first-down receptions among RBs last season. Here’s to hoping he gets featured and doesn’t have to share too much with James Conner, especially in the passing game.
- Austin Ekeler had the seventh-most first-down receptions among RBs despite playing only 10 games. If he gets a full season in 2021, he’s going to destroy his ADP.
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