Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Welcome to the Week 13 fantasy football start/sit column, where I have detailed which players you should start and sit this week based on their recent trends, matchups, and other game contexts.
- Players are labeled as starts if I rank them better than the consensus and sits if I rank them worse than the consensus, but consider your specific league contexts to make your start and sit decisions.
- The positional rankings and fantasy point totals rely on half PPR scoring.
- The consensus rankings refer to the FantasyPros expert consensus.
- You can find my weekly rankings and those of other FTN writers here.
Week 13 Start/Sit: Quarterbacks
Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars at Lions (Dome)
Week 13 Positional Ranking: 8th, +1 vs. consensus (9th)
+ Efficiency: Trevor Lawrence has thrown just 16 touchdowns but has 18.14 expected passing touchdowns in 2022, and that 2.14-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
+ Opponent: The Lions have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.34 per game in 2022, second most in football.
Tom Brady, Bucs vs. Saints (72 degrees and clear)
Week 13 Positional Ranking: 11th, +1 vs. consensus (12th)
+ Efficiency: Tom Brady has thrown just 14 touchdowns but has 21.10 expected passing touchdowns in 2022, and that second highest 7.10-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
Derek Carr, Raiders vs. Chargers (Dome)
Week 13 Positional Ranking: 12th, +1 vs. consensus (13th)
+ Opponent: The Chargers have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.20 per game in 2022, tied for seventh most in football.
Jared Goff, Lions vs. Jaguars (Dome)
Week 13 Positional Ranking: 14th, +2 vs. consensus (16th)
+ Venue: Jared Goff has averaged 0.9 more fantasy points per game at home than on the road the last two and a half seasons.
+ Opponent: The Jaguars have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.25 per game in 2022, sixth most in football.
Marcus Mariota, Falcons vs. Steelers (Dome)
Week 13 Positional Ranking: 18th, +1 vs. consensus (19th)
+ Opponent: The Steelers have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.35 per game in 2022, the most in football.
Jimmy Garoppolo, 49ers vs. Dolphins (56 degrees with moderate forecasted winds and a 70% chance of rain)
Week 13 Positional Ranking: 15th, -1 vs. consensus (14th)
– Volume: Moderate forecasted winds and a 70% chance of rain will likely skew the 49ers’ pass/run balance toward the run.
Kirk Cousins, Vikings vs. Jets (Dome)
Week 13 Positional Ranking: 16th, -1 vs. consensus (15th)
– Opponent: The Jets have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.33 per game in 2022, tied for third most in football.
+ Venue: Kirk Cousins has averaged 1.8 more fantasy points per game at home than on the road the last two and a half seasons.
+ Efficiency: Cousins has thrown just 17 touchdowns but has 21.86 expected passing touchdowns in 2022, and that fifth highest 4.86-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
Mike White, Jets at Vikings (Dome)
Week 13 Positional Ranking: 20th, -3 vs. consensus (17th)
– Efficiency: Mike White has thrown 3 touchdowns but has just 1.01 expected passing touchdowns in 2022, and that 1.99-touchdown surplus should regress negatively the rest of the season.
Ryan Tannehill, Titans at Eagles (40 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 13 Positional Ranking: 22nd, -2 vs. consensus (20th)
– Venue: Ryan Tannehill has averaged 1.7 more fantasy points per game at home than on the road the last two and a half seasons.
– Opponent: The Eagles have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.14 per game in 2022, ninth most in football.
Matt Ryan, Colts at Cowboys (Dome)
Week 13 Positional Ranking: 27th, -1 vs. consensus (26th)
– Opponent: Matt Ryan has faced the third-easiest schedule of pass defenses that on average have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.08 per game and should have a harder schedule starting this week.
– Opponent: The Cowboys have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.33 per game in 2022, tied for third most in football.
Andy Dalton, Saints at Bucs (72 degrees and clear)
Week 13 Positional Ranking: 28th, -1 vs. consensus (27th)
– Opponent: Andy Dalton has faced the sixth easiest schedule of pass defenses that on average have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.06 per game and should have a harder schedule starting this week.
– Efficiency: Andy Dalton has thrown 14 touchdowns but has just 11.44 expected passing touchdowns in 2022, and that eighth biggest 2.56-touchdown surplus should regress negatively the rest of the season.
Week 13 Start/Sit: Running Backs
Dameon Pierce, Texans vs. Browns (Dome)
Week 13 Positional Ranking: 18th, +1 vs. consensus (19th)
+ Efficiency: Dameon Pierce has just 4 touchdowns but has 5.88 expected rushing and receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 1.88-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
+ Efficiency: Dameon Pierce ranks fifth from last at his position with -1.18 net stolen touchdowns in 2022 and will likely see his rushing touchdown rate rise the rest of the season with more balance in the red zone.
+ Opponent: The Browns have increased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.13 per game in 2022, 11th most in football.
Isiah Pacheco, Chiefs at Bengals (44 degrees and cloudy)
Week 13 Positional Ranking: 21st, +1 vs. consensus (22nd)
+ Efficiency: Dameon Pierce has just 2 touchdowns but has 3.91 expected rushing and receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 1.91-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
Brian Robinson, Commanders at Giants (40 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 13 Positional Ranking: 26th, +1 vs. consensus (27th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Brian Robinson for 16.9 carries + targets this week, 21st at his position (he has averaged 17.6 carries + targets since he became the start in Week 6).
AJ Dillon, Packers at Bears (33 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 13 Positional Ranking: 30th, +1 vs. consensus (31st)
+ Efficiency: AJ Dillon has just 2 touchdowns but has 4.16 expected rushing and receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 2.16-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
+ Opponent: Dillon has faced the ninth-hardest schedule of run defenses that on average have decreased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.05 per game and should have an easier schedule starting this week.
+ Opponent: The Bears have increased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.48 per game in 2022, second most in football.
Raheem Mostert, Dolphins at 49ers (56 degrees with moderate forecasted winds and a 70% chance of rain)
Week 13 Positional Ranking: 39th, +33 vs. consensus (72nd – this reflects uncertainty of whether Mostert will play)
+ Volume: I am projecting Raheem Mostert for 10.9 carries + targets this week, 38th at his position (he has averaged 10.5 carries + targets since the Dolphins traded for Jeff Wilson prior to Week 9 and is expected to return this Sunday for his revenge game).
+ Volume: Moderate forecasted winds and a 70% chance of rain will likely skew the Dolphins’ pass/run balance toward the run.
Jaylen Warren, Steelers at Falcons (Dome)
Week 13 Positional Ranking: 41st, +28 vs. consensus (69th – this reflects uncertainty of whether Warren will play)
+ Volume: I am projecting Jaylen Warren for 8.5 carries + targets this week— assuming he and Najee Harris both play — 42nd at his position (he has averaged 7.2 carries + targets in the games he and Harris have both played since Week 5, and he returned to practice on Wednesday after missing Week 12).
+ Opponent: Warren has faced the second-hardest schedule of run defenses that on average have decreased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.09 per game and should have an easier schedule starting this week.
+ Opponent: The Falcons have increased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.38 per game in 2022, third most in football.
Tevin Coleman, 49ers vs. Dolphins (56 degrees with moderate forecasted winds and a 70% chance of rain)
Week 13 Positional Ranking: 47th, +54 vs. consensus (101st)
+ Volume: I am projecting Tevin Coleman for 5.4 carries + targets this week— assuming he is elevated from the practice squad and made active over Tyrion Davis-Price or Jordan Mason — 48th at his position (he averaged 7.5 carries + targets in Weeks 5 and 6 after Elijah Mitchell was injured but before the team traded for Christian McCaffrey, and The Athletic reporter Matt Barrows suspects Coleman could see work this week with Mitchell out again).
+ Volume: Moderate forecasted winds and a 70% chance of rain will likely skew the 49ers’ pass/run balance toward the run.
+ Opponent: The Dolphins have increased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.27 per game in 2022, sixth most in football.
Rachaad White, Bucs vs. Saints (72 degrees and clear)
Week 13 Positional Ranking: 23rd, -6 vs. consensus (17th)
– Volume: I am projecting Rachaad White for 14.1 carries + targets this week — assuming Leonard Fournette plays — tied for 28th at his position (Head coach Todd Bowles told reporters that he planned to ride the hot hand if Fournette played in Week 12, which I believe suggests a workload split).
Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys vs. Colts (Dome)
Week 13 Positional Ranking: 24th, -1 vs. consensus (23rd)
– Volume: I am projecting Ezekiel Elliott for 14.1 carries + targets this, tied for 28th at his position (he has averaged 16.5 carries + targets and a 40% snap share vs. 20.5 and 56% for Tony Pollard the last two weeks).
Devin Singletary, Bills at Patriots (35 degrees and clear)
Week 13 Positional Ranking: 28th, -4 vs. consensus (24th)
– Volume: I am projecting Devin Singletary for 14.2 carries + targets this week, 27th at his position (he has averaged 14.3 carries + targets in 2022).
– Opponent: The Patriots have decreased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.42 per game in 2022, tied for the most in football.
+ Efficiency: Singletary has just 4 touchdowns but has 6.78 expected rushing and receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 2.78-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
Gus Edwards, Ravens vs. Broncos (38 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 13 Positional Ranking: 32nd, -4 vs. consensus (28th)
– Opponent: The Broncos have decreased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.38 per game in 2022, third most in football.
Week 13 Start/Sit: Wide Receivers
Garrett Wilson, Jets at Vikings (Dome)
Week 13 Positional Ranking: 18th, +1 vs. consensus (19th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Garrett Wilson for 9.3 targets this week, 11th at his position (he has averaged 7.2 targets in 2022 and seems likely to see more targets with Mike White at quarterback vs. Zach Wilson, who has averaged just 27.0 pass attempts per game in 2022).
Joshua Palmer, Chargers at Raiders (Dome)
Week 13 Positional Ranking: 29th, +1 vs. consensus (30th)
+ Opponent: The Raiders have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.31 per game in 2022, fourth most in football.
Zay Jones, Jaguars at Lions (Dome)
Week 13 Positional Ranking: 32nd, +2 vs. consensus (34th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Zay Jones for 7.4 targets this week, tied for 24th at his position (he has averaged 7.9 targets in 2022).
+ Efficiency: Jones has caught just 1 touchdown but has 3.24 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that sixth highest 2.24-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
+ Opponent: The Lions have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.34 per game in 2022, second most in football.
Donovan Peoples-Jones, Browns at Texans (Dome)
Week 13 Positional Ranking: 36th, +2 vs. consensus (38th)
+ Efficiency: Donovan Peoples-Jones has caught just 1 touchdown but has 3.16 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that seventh highest 2.17-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
Drake London, Falcons vs. Steelers (Dome)
Week 13 Positional Ranking: 39th, +1 vs. consensus (40th)
+ Opponent: The Steelers have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.35 per game in 2022, the most in football.
Nico Collins, Texans vs. Browns (Dome)
Week 13 Positional Ranking: 41st, +1 vs. consensus (42nd)
+ Volume: I am projecting Nico Collins for 7.5 targets this week, 23rd at his position (he has averaged 8.7 targets since Brandin Cooks returned to the team in Week 10).
+ Efficiency: Collins has caught just 1 touchdown but has 1.81 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 0.81-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
Mack Hollins, Raiders vs. Chargers (Dome)
Week 13 Positional Ranking: 44th, +2 vs. consensus (46th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Mack Hollins for 6.4 targets this week, 37th at his position (he has averaged 6.7 targets since Hunter Renfrow went on injured reserve prior to Week 10).
+ Opponent: The Chargers have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.20 per game in 2022, tied for seventh most in football.
Van Jefferson, Rams vs. Seahawks (Dome)
Week 13 Positional Ranking: 47th, +1 vs. consensus (48th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Van Jefferson for 6.7 targets this week, tied for 31st at his position (he paced Rams receivers with 6 targets and an 87% snap share in Week 12 with both Cooper Kupp and Allen Robinson out).
+ Opponent: The Seahawks have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.20 per game in 2022, tied for seventh most in football.
Chase Claypool, Bears vs. Packers (33 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 13 Positional Ranking: 48th, +3 vs. consensus (51st)
+ Volume: I am projecting Chase Claypool for 6.7 targets this week, tied for 31st at his position (he paced Bears receivers with 5 targets and a 67% snap share in Week 12 once Darnell Mooney left injured).
+ Efficiency: Claypool has caught just 1 touchdown but has 2.20 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 1.20-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
– Opponent: Jaire Alexander has allowed just a 56% catch rate on his targets this season, eighth lowest among cornerbacks with 300 or more routes in coverage.
D.J. Chark, Lions vs. Jaguars (Dome)
Week 13 Positional Ranking: 57th, +5 vs. consensus (62nd)
+ Volume: I am projecting D.J. Chark for 4.5 targets this week, tied for 61st at his position (he has 5 targets and played 73% of snaps vs. 0 and 11% for Josh Reynolds in Week 12).
+ Opponent: The Jaguars have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.25 per game in 2022, sixth most in football.
Mike Evans, Bucs vs. Saints (72 degrees and clear)
Week 13 Positional Ranking: 19th, -3 vs. consensus (16th)
– Opponent: Mike Evans has averaged just 2.0 catches, 32 yards, and 7.2 fantasy points in six games against Marshon Lattimore and the Saints since 2020 with Tom Brady at quarterback — although Lattimore will likely be questionable after missing the last two months with a lacerated kidney.
Brandon Aiyuk, 49ers vs. Dolphins (56 degrees with moderate forecasted winds and a 70% chance of rain)
Week 13 Positional Ranking: 25th, -3 vs. consensus (22nd)
– Volume: Moderate forecasted winds and a 70% chance of rain will likely skew the 49ers’ pass/run balance toward the run.
– Efficiency: Brandon Aiyuk has caught 6 touchdowns but has just 3.11 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that third biggest 2.89-touchdown surplus should regress negatively the rest of the season.
Treylon Burks, Titans at Eagles (40 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 13 Positional Ranking: 37th, -1 vs. consensus (36th)
– Volume: I am projecting Treylon Burks for 5.7 targets this week, tied for 44th at his position (he has averaged 6.7 targets since his return from injured reserve in Week 10).
– Opponent: James Bradberry and Darius Slay have allowed just 46% and 52% catch rates on their targets this season, second and fourth lowest among cornerbacks with 300 or more routes in coverage.
– Opponent: The Eagles have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.14 per game in 2022, ninth most in football.
Adam Thielen, Vikings vs. Jets (Dome)
Week 13 Positional Ranking: 38th, -1 vs. consensus (39th)
– Opponent: The Jets have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.33 per game in 2022, tied for third most in football.
+ Efficiency: Adam Thielen has caught just 3 touchdowns but has 4.20 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 1.20-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
Tyler Boyd, Bengals vs. Chiefs (44 degrees and cloudy)
Week 13 Positional Ranking: 40th, -1 vs. consensus (39th)
– Volume: I am projecting Tyler Boyd for 4.6 targets this week — assuming Ja’Marr Chase plays — tied for 59th at his position (he has averaged 5.4 targets when Chase has been healthy in 2022).
– Efficiency: Boyd has caught 4 touchdowns but has just 2.22 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 1.78-touchdown surplus should regress negatively the rest of the season.
+ Opponent: The Chiefs have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.33 per game in 2022, third most in football.
Parris Campbell, Colts at Cowboys (Dome)
Week 13 Positional Ranking: 46th, -2 vs. consensus (44th)
– Opponent: The Cowboys have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.33 per game in 2022, tied for third most in football.
Michael Gallup, Cowboys vs. Colts (Dome)
Week 13 Positional Ranking: 49th, -4 vs. consensus (45th)
– Opponent: The Colts have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.34 per game in 2022, second most in football.
Elijah Moore, Jets at Vikings (Dome)
Week 13 Positional Ranking: 59th, -4 vs. consensus (55th)
– Volume: I am projecting Elijah Moore for 3.6 targets this week, 73rd at his position (he has averaged 2.1 targets since Week 7 and played just 35% of snaps in Week 12 despite a touchdown-driven fantasy outburst with Mike White at quarterback).
Week 13 Start/Sit: Tight Ends
Foster Moreau, Raiders vs. Chargers (Dome)
Week 13 Positional Ranking: 9th, +1 vs. consensus (10th)
+ Opponent: The Chargers have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.20 per game in 2022, tied for seventh most in football.
Hayden Hurst, Bengals vs. Chiefs (44 degrees and cloudy)
Week 13 Positional Ranking: 10th, +1 vs. consensus (11th)
+ Opponent: The Chiefs have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.33 per game in 2022, third most in football.
Tyler Higbee, Rams vs. Seahawks (Dome)
Week 13 Positional Ranking: 11th, +1 vs. consensus (12th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Tyler Higbee for 6.1 targets this week, seventh at his position (he has averaged 6.6 targets in 2022).
+ Efficiency: Higbee has not caught a touchdown but has 2.44 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that position-leading 2.44-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
+ Opponent: The Seahawks have allowed 15.8 average fantasy points per game to tight ends in 2022, the most in football.
+ Opponent: The Seahawks have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.20 per game in 2022, tied for seventh most in football.
Tyler Conklin, Jets at Vikings (Dome)
Week 13 Positional Ranking: 14th, +1 vs. consensus (15th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Tyler Conklin for 5.6 targets this week, eighth at his position (he has averaged 5.1 targets in 2022 and seems likely to see more targets with Mike White at quarterback vs. Zach Wilson, who has averaged just 27.0 pass attempts per game in 2022).
Evan Engram, Jaguars at Lions (Dome)
Week 13 Positional Ranking: 16th, +1 vs. consensus (17th)
+ Opponent: The Lions have allowed 11.9 average fantasy points per game to tight ends in 2022, fourth most in football.
+ Opponent: The Lions have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.34 per game in 2022, second most in football.
Logan Thomas, Commanders at Giants (40 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 13 Positional Ranking: 20th, +1 vs. consensus (21st)
+ Efficiency: Logan Thomas has caught just 1 touchdown but has 2.25 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 1.25-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
Jelani Woods, Colts at Cowboys (Dome)
Week 13 Positional Ranking: 23rd, +13 vs. consensus (36th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Jelani Woods for 3.8 targets this week, tied for 22nd at his position (he has averaged 2.2 targets in 2022 but had 9 targets in a Week 12 breakout with Kylen Granson sidelined and strikes me as poised to see more targets because of it even with Granson back).
– Efficiency: Woods has caught 3 touchdowns but has just 1.28 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that fifth biggest 1.72-touchdown surplus should regress negatively the rest of the season.
– Opponent: The Cowboys have allowed 6.8 average fantasy points per game to tight ends in 2022, third fewest in football.
– Opponent: The Cowboys have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.33 per game in 2022, tied for third most in football.
Cameron Brate, Bucs vs. Saints (72 degrees and clear)
Week 13 Positional Ranking: 26th, +1 vs. consensus (27th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Cameron Brate for 4.1 targets this week, 17th at his position (he has averaged 4.1 targets in 2022).
+ Efficiency: Brate has not caught a touchdown but has 1.59 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that second highest 1.59-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
– Opponent: The Saints have allowed 5.7 average fantasy points per game to tight ends in 2022, the fewest in football.
Juwan Johnson, Saints at Bucs (72 degrees and clear)
Week 13 Positional Ranking: 17th, -1 vs. consensus (16th)
– Volume: I am projecting Juwan Johnson for 3.9 targets this week, tied for 20th at his position (he has averaged 4.1 targets in 2022).
– Efficiency: Johnson has caught 5 touchdowns but has just 2.85 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that third biggest 2.15-touchdown surplus should regress negatively the rest of the season.
Austin Hooper, Titans at Eagles (40 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 13 Positional Ranking: 24th, -1 vs. consensus (23rd)
– Opponent: The Eagles have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.14 per game in 2022, ninth most in football.
Mike Gesicki, Dolphins at 49ers (56 degrees with moderate forecasted winds and a 70% chance of rain)
Week 13 Positional Ranking: 25th, -1 vs. consensus (24th)
– Volume: Moderate forecasted winds and a 70% chance of rain will likely skew the Dolphins’ pass/run balance toward the run.
– Opponent: The 49ers have allowed 6.9 average fantasy points per game to tight ends in 2022, fourth fewest in football.
