NBA Best Bets of the Day (12/2)
Alex Christenson
Welcome to the Week 12 fantasy football start/sit column, where I have detailed which players you should start and sit this week based on their recent trends, matchups, and other game contexts.
- Players are labeled as starts if I rank them better than the consensus and sits if I rank them worse than the consensus, but consider your specific league contexts to make your start and sit decisions.
- The positional rankings and fantasy point totals rely on half PPR scoring.
- The consensus rankings refer to the FantasyPros expert consensus.
- You can find my weekly rankings and those of other FTN writers here.
Week 12 Start/Sit: Quarterbacks
Matt Ryan, Colts vs. Steelers (Dome)
Week 12 Positional Ranking: 18th, +1 vs. consensus (19th)
+ Opponent: The Steelers have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.43 per game in 2022, the most in football.
Ryan Tannehill, Titans vs. Bengals (52 degrees and cloudy)
Week 12 Positional Ranking: 23rd, +2 vs. consensus (25th)
+ Venue: Ryan Tannehill has averaged 2.0 more fantasy points per game at home than on the road the last two and a half seasons.
– Opponent: The Bengals have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.23 per game in 2022, eighth most in football.
Tom Brady, Bucs at Browns (49 degrees with heavy winds and a 60% chance of rain)
Week 12 Positional Ranking: 13th, -3 vs. consensus (10th)
– Volume: Heavy forecasted winds and a 60% chance of rain will likely skew the Bucs’ pass/run balance toward the run.
+ Efficiency: Tom Brady has thrown just 12 touchdowns but has 19.66 expected passing touchdowns in 2022, and that position-leading 7.66-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
Daniel Jones, Giants at Cowboys (Dome)
Week 12 Positional Ranking: 16th, -1 vs. consensus (15th)
– Opponent: The Cowboys have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.26 per game in 2022, fifth most in football.
Aaron Rodgers, Packers at Eagles (51 degrees and cloudy)
Week 12 Positional Ranking: 20th, -2 vs. consensus (18th)
– Venue: Aaron Rodgers has averaged 1.3 more fantasy points per game at home than on the road the last two and a half seasons.
– Opponent: The Eagles have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.24 per game in 2022, seventh most in football.
Jacoby Brissett, Browns vs. Bucs (49 degrees with heavy winds and a 60% chance of rain)
Week 12 Positional Ranking: 21st, -1 vs. consensus (20th)
– Volume: Heavy forecasted winds and a 60% chance of rain will likely skew the Browns’ pass/run balance toward the run.
Russell Wilson, Broncos at Panthers (65 degrees with a 15% chance of rain)
Week 12 Positional Ranking: 24th, -2 vs. consensus (22nd)
– Opponent: The Panthers have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.22 per game in 2022, ninth most in football.
Andy Dalton, Saints at 49ers (64 degrees and cloudy)
Week 12 Positional Ranking: 27th, -1 vs. consensus (26th)
– Efficiency: Andy Dalton has thrown 14 touchdowns but has just 9.46 expected passing touchdowns in 2022, and that third biggest 4.54-touchdown surplus should regress negatively the rest of the season.
– Opponent: Dalton has faced the third easiest schedule of pass defenses that on average have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.09 per game and should have a harder schedule starting this week.
– Opponent: The 49ers have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.30 per game in 2022, tied for third most in football.
Week 12 Start/Sit: Running Backs
Dameon Pierce, Texans at Dolphins (84 degrees and cloudy)
Week 12 Positional Ranking: 16th, +1 vs. consensus (17th)
+ Efficiency: Dameon Pierce has just 4 touchdowns but has 5.94 expected rushing and receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 1.94-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
+ Efficiency: Pierce ranks fourth from last at his position with -1.13 net stolen touchdowns in 2022 and will likely see his rushing touchdown rate rise the rest of the season with more balance in the red zone.
+ Opponent: The Dolphins have increased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.35 per game in 2022, fourth most in football.
Devin Singletary, Bills at Lions (Dome)
Week 12 Positional Ranking: 22nd, +1 vs. consensus (23rd)
+ Efficiency: Devin Singletary has just 4 touchdowns but has 6.24 expected rushing and receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 2.24-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
+ Opponent: The Lions have increased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.67 per game in 2022, the most in football.
Latavius Murray, Broncos at Panthers (65 degrees with a 15% chance of rain)
Week 12 Positional Ranking: 24th, +1 vs. consensus (25th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Latavius Murray for 22.2 carries + targets this week, sixth at his position (he has averaged 15.2 carries + targets since he joined the Broncos in Week 6 but should see more work after Melvin Gordon was released and Chase Edmonds went on injured reserve).
Leonard Fournette, Bucs at Browns (49 degrees with heavy winds and a 60% chance of rain)
Week 12 Positional Ranking: 28th, +1 vs. consensus (29th)
+ Volume: Heavy forecasted winds and a 60% chance of rain will likely skew the Bucs’ pass/run balance toward the run.
+ Opponent: The Browns have increased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.23 per game in 2022, eighth most in football.
Cam Akers, Rams at Chiefs (51 degrees and cloudy)
Week 12 Positional Ranking: 33rd, +6 vs. consensus (39th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Cam Akers for 14.2 carries + targets this week, 29th at his position (he had 14 carries + targets in Week 11 and should see more work after Darrell Henderson was released).
Brian Robinson, Commanders vs. Falcons (57 degrees with moderate forecasted winds and a 55% chance of rain)
Week 12 Positional Ranking: 35th, +1 vs. consensus (36th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Brian Robinson for 15.2 carries + targets this week, 25th at his position (he has averaged 17.2 carries + targets since he became the starter in Week 6).
+ Volume: Moderate forecasted winds and a 55% chance of rain will likely skew the Commanders’ pass/run balance toward the run.
+ Opponent: The Falcons have increased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.43 per game in 2022, third most in football.
James Robinson, Jets vs. Bears (56 degrees with moderate forecasted winds and a 75% chance of rain)
Week 12 Positional Ranking: 39th, +3 vs. consensus (42nd)
+ Volume: Moderate forecasted winds and a 75% chance of rain will likely skew the Jets’ pass/run balance toward the run.
+ Opponent: The Bears have increased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.51 per game in 2022, second most in football.
AJ Dillon, Packers at Eagles (51 degrees and cloudy)
Week 12 Positional Ranking: 42nd, +1 vs. consensus (43rd)
+ Efficiency: AJ Dillon has just 1 touchdown but has 3.98 expected rushing and receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 2.98-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
Jerick McKinnon, Chiefs vs. Rams (51 degrees and cloudy)
Week 12 Positional Ranking: 45th, +2 vs. consensus (47th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Jerick McKinnon for 11.3 carries + targets this week, 36th at his position (he has averaged 9.0 carries + targets the last three weeks and should see more work with Clyde Edwards-Helaire on injured reserve).
+ Efficiency: McKinnon has just 1 touchdown but has 3.52 expected rushing and receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 2.52-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
Rachaad White, Bucs at Browns (49 degrees with heavy winds and a 60% chance of rain)
Week 12 Positional Ranking: 26th, -2 vs. consensus (24th)
– Volume: I am projecting Rachaad White for 13.2 carries + targets this week, tied for 31st at his position (he had 22 carries + targets in his first week as a starter in Week 10 but trailed Leonard Fournette 10 carries to 14 when Fournette left in the third quarter with a hip injury that he has presumably recovered from over the bye week).
+ Volume: Heavy forecasted winds and a 60% chance of rain will likely skew the Bucs’ pass/run balance toward the run.
+ Opponent: The Browns have increased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.23 per game in 2022, eighth most in football.
D’Onta Foreman, Panthers vs. Broncos (65 degrees with a 15% chance of rain)
Week 12 Positional Ranking: 30th, -3 vs. consensus (27th)
– Efficiency: D’Onta Foreman has 4 touchdowns but has just 2.63 expected rushing and receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 1.37-touchdown surplus should regress negatively the rest of the season.
– Opponent: The Broncos have decreased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.43 per game in 2022, third most in football.
Isiah Pacheco, Chiefs vs. Rams (51 degrees and cloudy)
Week 12 Positional Ranking: 31st, -3 vs. consensus (28th)
– Opponent: The Rams have decreased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.23 per game in 2022, eighth most in football.
Tyler Allgeier, Falcons at Commanders (57 degrees with moderate forecasted winds and a 55% chance of rain)
Week 12 Positional Ranking: 43rd, -2 vs. consensus (41st)
– Opponent: The Commanders have decreased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.27 per game in 2022, sixth most in football.
+ Volume: Moderate forecasted winds and a 55% chance of rain will likely skew the Falcons’ pass/run balance toward the run.
Week 12 Start/Sit: Wide Receivers
Michael Pittman, Colts vs. Steelers (Dome)
Week 12 Positional Ranking: 19th, +1 vs. consensus (20th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Michael Pittman for 9.5 targets this week, 12th at his position (he has averaged 9.2 targets in 2022).
+ Opponent: The Steelers have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.43 per game in 2022, the most in football.
Keenan Allen, Chargers at Cardinals (Dome)
Week 12 Positional Ranking: 22nd, +4 vs. consensus (18th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Keenan Allen for 9.7 targets this week, 10th at his position (he had eight targets in his return from a hamstring injury in Week 11 and averaged 9.8 targets in a healthy 2021).
+ Opponent: The Cardinals have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.30 per game in 2022, tied for fourth most in football.
Parris Campbell, Colts vs. Steelers (Dome)
Week 12 Positional Ranking: 37th, +1 vs. consensus (38th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Parris Campbell for 7.6 targets this week, tied for 26th at his position (he has averaged 9.5 targets in Matt Ryan’s last four starts).
+ Opponent: The Steelers have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.43 per game in 2022, the most in football.
Allen Robinson, Rams at Chiefs (51 degrees and cloudy)
Week 12 Positional Ranking: 40th, +1 vs. consensus (41st)
+ Efficiency: Allen Robinson has caught just 3 touchdowns but has 5.60 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that fourth biggest 2.60-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
+ Opponent: The Chiefs have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.42 per game in 2022, second most in football.
Nico Collins, Texans at Dolphins (84 degrees and cloudy)
Week 12 Positional Ranking: 44th, +1 vs. consensus (45th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Nico Collins for 6.9 targets this week, 34th at his position (he has averaged 8.5 targets the last two weeks after Brandin Cooks stepped away from and returned to the team).
Mack Hollins, Raiders at Seahawks (45 degrees and cloudy)
Week 12 Positional Ranking: 51st, +2 vs. consensus (53rd)
+ Volume: I am projecting Mack Hollins for 6.5 targets this week, 38th at his position (he has averaged 6.6 targets in 2022).
+ Efficiency: Hollins has caught just 2 touchdowns but has 3.29 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 1.29-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
Demarcus Robinson, Ravens at Jaguars (67 degrees and cloudy)
Week 12 Positional Ranking: 55th, +1 vs. consensus (56th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Demarcus Robinson for 5.8 targets this week, tied for 50th at his position (he has averaged 7.0 targets since Rashod Bateman got hurt in Week 8).
+ Opponent: The Jaguars have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.28 per game in 2022, sixth most in football.
Brandon Aiyuk, 49ers vs. Saints (64 degrees and cloudy)
Week 12 Positional Ranking: 23rd, -1 vs. consensus (22nd)
– Volume: I am projecting Brandon Aiyuk for 6.7 targets this week, 36th at his position (he has averaged 6.9 targets since Jimmy Garoppolo became the starter in Week 3).
– Efficiency: Aiyuk has caught 6 touchdowns but has just 2.87 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that fourth biggest 3.13-touchdown surplus should regress negatively the rest of the season.
Christian Watson, Packers at Eagles (51 degrees and cloudy)
Week 12 Positional Ranking: 31st, -1 vs. consensus (30th)
– Efficiency: Christian Watson has caught 5 touchdowns but has just 1.86 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that third biggest 3.14-touchdown surplus should regress negatively the rest of the season.
– Opponent: The Eagles have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.24 per game in 2022, seventh most in football.
Darius Slayton, Giants at Cowboys (Dome)
Week 12 Positional Ranking: 36th, -2 vs. consensus (34th)
– Opponent: The Cowboys have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.26 per game in 2022, fifth most in football.
Donovan Peoples-Jones, Browns vs. Bucs (49 degrees with heavy winds and a 60% chance of rain)
Week 12 Positional Ranking: 42nd, -5 vs. consensus (37th)
– Volume: Heavy forecasted winds and a 60% chance of rain will likely skew the Browns’ pass/run balance toward the run.
+ Efficiency: Donovan Peoples-Jones has caught just 1 touchdown but has 3.10 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that fifth biggest 2.10-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
Adam Thielen, Vikings vs. Patriots (Dome)
Week 12 Positional Ranking: 43rd, -3 vs. consensus (40th)
+ Efficiency: Adam Thielen has caught just 2 touchdowns but has 3.66 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 1.66-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
– Opponent: The Patriots have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.25 per game in 2022, sixth most in football.
Treylon Burks, Titans vs. Bengals (52 degrees and cloudy)
Week 12 Positional Ranking: 45th, -3 vs. consensus (42nd)
– Opponent: The Bengals have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.23 per game in 2022, eighth most in football.
Darnell Mooney, Bears at Jets (56 degrees with moderate forecasted winds and a 75% chance of rain)
Week 12 Positional Ranking: 46th, -3 vs. consensus (43rd)
– Volume: I am projecting Darnell Mooney for 5.0 targets this week, 58th at his position (he has averaged 5.5 targets in 2022).
– Volume: Moderate forecasted winds and a 75% chance of rain will likely skew the Bears’ pass/run balance toward the run.
Week 12 Start/Sit: Tight Ends
Dawson Knox, Bills at Lions (Dome)
Week 12 Positional Ranking: 7th, +1 vs. consensus (8th)
+ Opponent: The Lions have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.30 per game in 2022, tied for fourth most in football.
Tyler Higbee, Rams at Chiefs (51 degrees and cloudy)
Week 12 Positional Ranking: 8th, +1 vs. consensus (9th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Tyler Higbee for 7.8 targets this week, fifth at his position (he has averaged 7.3 targets in 2022 and should see more work with Cooper Kupp on injured reserve).
+ Efficiency: Higbee has not caught a touchdown but has 2.44 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that position-leading 2.44-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
+ Opponent: The Chiefs have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.42 per game in 2022, second most in football.
Foster Moreau, Raiders at Seahawks (45 degrees and cloudy)
Week 12 Positional Ranking: 10th, +1 vs. consensus (11th)
+ Opponent: The Seahawks have allowed 16.3 average fantasy points per game to tight ends in 2022, second most in football.
Hayden Hurst, Bengals at Titans (52 degrees and cloudy)
Week 12 Positional Ranking: 12th, +2 vs. consensus (14th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Hayden Hurst for 5.5 targets this week, seventh at his position (he has averaged 5.1 targets in 2022).
Noah Fant, Seahawks vs. Raiders (45 degrees and cloudy)
Week 12 Positional Ranking: 16th, +1 vs. consensus (17th)
+ Opponent: The Raiders have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.32 per game in 2022, third most in football.
Logan Thomas, Commanders vs. Falcons (57 degrees with moderate forecasted winds and a 55% chance of rain)
Week 12 Positional Ranking: 17th, +1 vs. consensus (18th)
+ Efficiency: Logan Thomas has caught just 1 touchdown but has 2.24 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 1.24-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
– Volume: Moderate forecasted winds and a 55% chance of rain will likely skew the Commanders’ pass/run balance toward the run.
Gerald Everett, Chargers at Cardinals (Dome)
Week 12 Positional Ranking: 18th, +8 vs. consensus (26th – this reflects uncertainty of whether Everett can play coming off a groin injury)
+ Efficiency: Gerald Everett has caught just 2 touchdowns but has 3.07 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 1.07-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
+ Opponent: The Cardinals have allowed 16.6 average fantasy points per game to tight ends in 2022, the most in football.
+ Opponent: The Cardinals have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.30 per game in 2022, tied for fourth most in football.
Cole Kmet, Bears at Jets (56 degrees with moderate forecasted winds and a 75% chance of rain)
Week 12 Positional Ranking: 11th, -1 vs. consensus (10th)
– Volume: I am projecting Cole Kmet for 4.3 targets this week, tied for 14th at his position (he has averaged 3.9 targets since Week 3).
– Volume: Moderate forecasted winds and a 75% chance of rain will likely skew the Bears’ pass/run balance toward the run.
– Efficiency: Kmet has caught 5 touchdowns but has just 1.80 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that second biggest 3.20-touchdown surplus should regress negatively the rest of the season.
– Opponent: The Jets have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.34 per game in 2022, second most in football.
Juwan Johnson, Saints at 49ers (64 degrees and cloudy)
Week 12 Positional Ranking: 13th, -1 vs. consensus (12th)
– Efficiency: Juwan Johnson has caught 5 touchdowns but has just 2.55 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that third biggest 2.45-touchdown surplus should regress negatively the rest of the season.
– Opponent: The 49ers have allowed 7.1 average fantasy points per game to tight ends in 2022, tied for fifth least in football.
– Opponent: The 49ers have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.30 per game in 2022, tied for third most in football.
David Njoku, Browns vs. Bucs (49 degrees with heavy winds and a 60% chance of rain)
Week 12 Positional Ranking: 14th, -1 vs. consensus (13th)
– Volume: Heavy forecasted winds and a 60% chance of rain will likely skew the Browns’ pass/run balance toward the run.
+ Efficiency: David Njoku has caught just 1 touchdown but has 2.36 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that fourth biggest 1.36-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
Robert Tonyan, Packers at Eagles (51 degrees and cloudy)
Week 12 Positional Ranking: 20th, -4 vs. consensus (16th)
– Opponent: The Eagles have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.24 per game in 2022, seventh most in football.
Cade Otton, Bucs at Browns (49 degrees with heavy winds and a 60% chance of rain)
Week 12 Positional Ranking: 29th, -1 vs. consensus (28th)
– Volume: Heavy forecasted winds and a 60% chance of rain will likely skew the Bucs’ pass/run balance toward the run.
– Opponent: The Browns have allowed 7.1 average fantasy points per game to tight ends in 2022, tied for fifth least in football.
+ Efficiency: Cade Otton has caught just 1 touchdown but has 2.28 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that sixth biggest 1.28-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
