Prime-Time Props — Thursday Night Football, Week 1
Prop God
With training camps open across the league, excitement is in the air, and 2021 fantasy football drafts are starting to heat up. My fantasy football rankings can be found at FTN Fantasy, and there are others who’ve contributed as well to help split the tie if there is one. They are updated daily, so be sure to check in before your fantasy football drafts.
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Below is a continuation of my 2021 fantasy football running back rankings in a half-point setting (see the RB1-10 ranks here), as we dive into 11-20. I’ll dive a bit deeper in the days to come and I’ll hit on other positions as well. If you have any questions, don’t be afraid to reach out @chrismeaney.
11. Austin Ekeler – Los Angeles Chargers
Ekeler kicks us off at No. 11, and it’s probably one of the lowest ranks around when it comes to the Chargers’ back. I’m a fan of his upside, and he’s ranked higher in PPR leagues, but I can’t say with confidence that he’ll get 200-plus carries or the goal-line work, so that’s why he’s ranked outside the top 10. Slightly.
Does he need 200 attempts to be an RB1? No, he’s still ranked as an RB1 and you can make a case that targets are more valuable than carries, but I don’t see a path to 1,000 rushing yards and 1,000 receiving yards like I’m hearing.
I see a path to 1K receiving yards, as he had 993 in 2019 over a full season and racked up 403 in 10 games last season. Remember after Week 1 when Ekeler had one catch for three yards on one target? The fantasy community was on edge, but Justin Herbert took over for Tyrod Taylor and Ekeler received 63 targets in their eight games together (7.1 per game). That’s 130 targets in 17 games.
Ekeler averaged 11.6 carries per game last season, which works out to 197 over a 17-game season. He’s never had more than 132 in a season, and although I don’t love Joshua Kelley or Justin Jackson as talents, Kelley may get some of the goal-line work. Kelley, Kalen Ballage and Justin Herbert had more red-zone carries than Ekeler last season. I’m nit-picking a bit. There’s a new OC in town, and the offense should run through Ekeler.
(Check out Jeff Ratcliffe’s top 100 0.5 PPR rankings.)
12. Clyde Edwards-Helaire – Kansas City Chiefs
CEH was RB11 through the first seven weeks of the season before the Chiefs acquired Le’Veon Bell. It wasn’t as if Bell was good, he just got in the way. Edwards-Helaire had double-digit fantasy points in four of his first seven games, and that’s something he only did once in his last six contests.
He finished with at least 20 carries in three of his first six games, but only topped 14 once in the second half. I do believe Darrell Williams will be more involved than Jerick McKinnon, but it was encouraging to see 36 grabs on 54 targets in Edwards-Helaire’s rookie season.
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Now we move to year two. It’s his first with a true training camp and preseason games and it’s another year to learn Andy Reid’s playbook, which has produced so many top running backs in fantasy. The offensive line is revamped, and you can count on a better success rate inside the red zone as a result. Let’s not forget all the reasons many liked CEH as a top-10 back last season. It’s a high-powered offense with the backfield mostly to himself. He only needs 15 touches per game to be an RB1.
13. Joe Mixon – Cincinnati Bengals
Mixon’s season was cut short last year, and he wasn’t overly productive in the six games he played, but he got volume and that’s the name of the game in fantasy. Mixon averaged 20 touches per game in the first three weeks and 27 per game when Giovani Bernard was out of the lineup. Gio is gone, and although Chris Evans’ hands have been on full display in Cincy camp, Mixon racked up 21 receptions to give him 23 touches per game.
That’s pretty much on par with what Zac Taylor gave him in 2019 (24 per game). The offensive line is still going to be an issue just as it was last season. Mixon only averaged more than 3.6 yards per carry in one of his six games last season, and it came against the Jaguars (25-for-151). He was held under 70 yards in his other five games and he had at least 17 carries in each of them. Maybe a bad offensive line means a few more targets for Mixon. One thing we know for sure is he’s getting a majority of the carries and red-zone opportunities.
14. Antonio Gibson – Washington Football Team
Look, I like Antonio Gibson, and he’s expected to be more involved in the passing attack this season, including the hurry-up offense, but I have some concerns. For one, he only had more than 16 carries in three games last season and he only topped 94 rushing yards twice, and both games came against arguably the worst defense of all time in Dallas. In fact, 28% of Gibson’s fantasy points last season came against the Cowboys. Yes, I’m aware he’ll get them twice again in his sophomore campaign.
Gibson came on strong toward the end of his rookie season, as he finished with eight rushing touchdowns in his final nine games. There were just some games that were underwhelming, but they were saved because he scored a TD. 9-for-36, 13-for-46, 11-for-27, 9-for-30, 6-for-20 and 13-for-45 just doesn’t do it for me. I can certainly see an uptick in targets (44) and catches (36). He’s a cheaper and lesser version of Austin Ekeler, but he won’t get the same volume through the air. I’m sure he’ll average more than 12.1 carries per game this season, but I wouldn’t imagine it’ll be much more than 15-17. I can’t take him over backs who will top 20 touches from a week-to-week basis. J.D. McKissic should see a decline in targets, but keep in mind he finished second among backs in catches with 80.
15. J.K. Dobbins – Baltimore Ravens
It took a bit to get going, but Dobbins averaged 12.1 carries and 72.3 rushing yards per game from Week 8 on after the Ravens had their bye week. He had double-digit carries in eight of his final nine regular season games and he scored seven touchdowns over that span. He hadn’t played more than 43% of the snaps in the first six weeks, but he was above that number in eight of his final nine games and over 50% in the playoffs.
Believe it or not, Mark Ingram got in the way in the first two months of the season, but he’s no longer on the roster. Gus Edwards, Lamar Jackson, the red-zone usage and the lack of targets in the passing game are the concerns. Dobbins had 11 grabs in his first six games but just seven over his final nine. He only had one more carry than Edwards in the playoffs, but he had six targets to Edwards’ zero and he received all the RZ work. He was much better in the playoffs as well: 19 carries, 85 yards, one touchdown and four catches for 46 yards in two playoff games. Overall, Edwards ran 91 routes compared to 191 from Dobbins.
Although it’d be nice to see Dobbins targeted in the offense a bit more, it’s not in Lamar Jackson’s nature to dump it off. With that said, he doesn’t need 30-plus grabs in Baltimore’s offense to be productive. His explosiveness led him to an RB6 finish from Week 13-17. The rookie back finished third in yards created per touch and he was first in big-run rate. Only Nick Chubb and Derrick Henry had more runs of 20-plus yards than Dobbins’ eight. Lamar may run a few in, as he led the Ravens in red-zone rushing attempts, and Edwards will also hang around considering the two-year extension, but I look at the usage Dobbins got in the final few weeks of the season and into the playoffs with the season on the line as a sign of things to come.
16. Chris Carson – Seattle Seahawks
Carson finished as RB17 in a half-point setting despite missing four games last season. He was 14th in points per game and he’s been a rock-solid RB2 for three straight years now. Nobody seems to give him the respect he deserves, but each year he returns value. The knock is his health, as he’s missed seven games over the last three seasons and he always seems to be questionable at certain points of the season.
There’s no doubt Carson is the guy in Seattle, and he’s the goal-line back. Don’t look into his 681 yards last year, as he had back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons in his two prior seasons and his work in the passing game went up. He has 93 targets in the last two seasons and his 37 grabs last season tied a career high, but he only played 12 games compared to 15 in 2019 when he had 37 receptions. Carson has a 4.5 YPC mark on 715 career carries, and he had a personal best 4.8 last year.
17. David Montgomery – Chicago Bears
After a disappointing rookie season and slow start to his sophomore campaign, Montgomery broke out in a big way in 2020. He set career highs in attempts (247), rushing yards (1,070), yards per carry (4.3), touchdowns (10), targets (68), catches (54) and receiving yards (438). He finished as RB4 in PPR and half-point leagues.
Montgomery finished with 85.8 fewer fantasy points than Derrick Henry, but he only had 10 fewer points than Henry in a PPR setting from Week 5 on. Montgomery averaged 12.8 carries in his first seven games and 18.8 in his final eight contests. He had 19 or fewer carries in each of those first seven games but had at least 21 in four of his final eight contests and 32 in one game. He was leaned on very differently in year two than year one.
He also benefited from an injury to Tarik Cohen, as he went from 35 targets and 25 grabs to 68 targets and 54 receptions. He only had nine catches in his first four games (2.25), but he averaged 4.1 over his final 11 games with Cohen sidelined. It’s looking more and more likely that Cohen and his 79 catches from 2019 won’t be around to start the season, but the Bears brought in Damien Williams who will cut into Montgomery’s targets. This is why he’s an RB2 not an RB1.
18. Miles Sanders – Philadelphia Eagles
Sanders is a hard one to figure out. In 2019 he was one of four running backs to have 800 rushing yards, 500 receiving yards, 50 catches and 4.6 yards per carry (CMC, Alvin Kamara, Dalvin Cook). He did that as a rookie. Last season was disappointing, as he was limited to 12 games and he only topped 20 carries once, despite a career-best 5.3 yards per attempt. He saw 11 fewer targets in his sophomore year (52) and he only caught 28 of them. His 53.8% catch rate last season ranked 37th among backs, and early word out of PHI camp suggests Sanders has struggled with drops again.
Boston Scott remains on the roster, and the Eagles drafted Kenneth Gainwell who is a terrific pass-catcher. Sanders is no doubt the best back in the offense, and I do believe he’ll be the guy on first and second down with most of the goal-line work despite reports of a near split with Scott. Sanders’ five runs of at least 50 yards over the last two years are tied with Nick Chubb and Derrick Henry for the most in the NFL. Sanders has 163 fewer carries than Chubb and 426 fewer carries than Henry over that span. Will the new coaching staff give Sanders the ball more or will things play out like they did when Doug Pederson was around. Will Nick Sirianni’s offense look similar to the Colts? If so, Sanders may go another season with just one 20-carry game and that’s concerning.
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One positive note, and it’s a small sample size, but Sanders had nine catches on 13 targets, 70-plus receiving yards and nearly 400 yards in three games with Jalen Hurts. A rushing QB tends to open up holes for a running back, and that was the case for Sanders. His 115-yard game vs. the Saints in Week 14 was the first 100-yard game for a RB against the Saints in nearly four years. The upside is there, but there are so many questions.
19. D’Andre Swift – Detroit Lions
This is likely an unfair ranking, but you don’t typically see running backs finish near the top 10 on bottom-five offenses, and that’s what I expect the Lions to be in 2021. I love the offensive line, as it may be one of the best in the game, but it’s not enough to put Swift inside the top 15.
You have to love the 46 grabs on 57 targets as a rookie, and the Lions lost two studs in the passing game in Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones. He could top his rookie numbers, especially when you consider Jared Goff has a history of checking down to his running backs. It’s a near lock that Swift will surpass the 8.7 carries per game he averaged last season, as he topped 10 carries in five of his final six games. Keep in mind Swift’s dealing with a groin injury in camp and the team brought in Jamaal Williams, who will cut into Swift’s work through the air and in the red zone.
20. Darrell Henderson – Los Angeles Rams
Henderson has moved from RB46 (ADP 128) to RB19 (ADP 50) since we lost Cam Akers for the season. As of now, Henderson will have every opportunity to be the guy in Los Angeles, as it sounds like the Rams won’t add a veteran back. Keep in mind Henderson was drafted on Day 2 just like Akers, and he finished with more yards on fewer carries. He had 21 forced missed tackles last season compared to 22 from Akers. Henderson led the Rams in red-zone carries and he finished inside the top 10 in big gains, despite losing his job.
Henderson totaled 624 rushing yards on 134 attempts (4.5 YPC), scored six total touchdowns and caught 16 passes on 24 targets in his 15 games. He emerged as the Rams’ starting running back to begin the season, as he averaged 12.4 carries and 58.7 rushing yards per game over his first seven contests. That includes just three yards on six carries in Week 1. From Week 2 to Week 7, Henderson averaged 16 opportunities, and he had double-digit carries in five of those six games. I expect that kind of usage in his third season with the Rams.
