Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
(As fantasy football dives headlong into draft season, some players warrant a little extra attention. All August, Dom Cintorino and Adam Pfeifer will do deep dives into some of the notable names. Follow along with our player profiles series. Today’s profile: Antonio Gibson)
Fantasy football 2021 value – Antonio Gibson
The Washington Football Team’s offense is on the rise thanks to a pair of rising stars. Wide receiver Terry McLaurin has been playing at a high level for two years now, and in 2020, rookie running back Antonio Gibson showed up and displayed serious flashes. During his time at Memphis, Gibson was used more as a wide receiver, totaling just 33 career collegiate carries. But at 6-foot-0 and 228 pounds with 4.40 speed, Gibson proved not only can he be an every-down back in the NFL, but a very good one. He finished his rookie campaign with 795 yards and a whopping 11 touchdowns on 170 carries, while adding 36 receptions for 247 yards. “11 touchdowns on 170 carries” screams regression, but he will be the unquestioned goal-line back for a Washington team that called run 67.4% of the time from inside the 5-yard line last year, the fourth-highest rate in the league. It was even more impressive that Gibson scored as much as he did when you consider that Washington averaged just 3.0 red zone scoring trips per game last year, tied for the sixth worst in football. And while his touchdowns more than likely come down, the overall volume for Gibson is on the rise entering year two. He only logged 40% of the offensive snaps over the course of the season, as he split time with Peyton Barber to start the season, while J.D. McKissic was very involved in the passing game. If Gibson can become an every-down back, he has legitimate top-five upside at the position.
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That, of course, would require him to play a lot more on third downs. He hardly played on third down at all during his rookie season and registered only 20 pass-blocking snaps, while ranking 39th among running backs in routes run. McKissic, meanwhile, led the position with 399 pass routes, resulting in 106 targets from the conservative Alex Smith, who averaged just 5.1 intended air yards per pass attempt, the lowest mark in football. Meanwhile, a league-leading 23.4% of his pass attempts were behind the line of scrimmage. With Ryan Fitzpatrick under center, it is possible McKissic isn’t as involved this season. Sure, Gibson didn’t play a third-down snap in Washington’s first preseason game, but he was targeted twice. And Gibson is clearly the first- and second-down back, which should lead to 250-plus carries. In 2020, Washington, despite having a very strong defense, ran the third-most plays in negative gamescripts, as well as the fourth fewest in neutral. Their defense was terrific, but the offense struggled to sustain drives, as Washington was 31st in yards per drive last year (29.0) and 27th in points per drive (1.75). Gibson only had four games with 15-plus carries last season but assuming the offense moves the ball down the field more efficiently, that number will climb in 2021. Not to mention, more sustained drives lead to fewer third downs and more snaps for Gibson.
Entering the 2021 season, Gibson has every opportunity to build off an impressive rookie season and emerge as one of the best running backs in all of fantasy football. And the key to unlocking his massive ceiling is whether or not he can get more work in the passing game, particularly on passing downs. He’ll get enough targets when he’s on the field to make an impact in PPR leagues, but if he can play more on third downs, Gibson will have a chance to reach that 50-catch mark.
Fantasy football ADP stock watch – Antonio Gibson
According to FTN’s ADP tool, Gibson is being drafted in the middle of the second round as the RB12. He is coming off the board right around other running backs such as Joe Mixon and Najee Harris. It is very close between all three running backs, but I do prefer Gibson, though you can easily make the argument for Harris or Mixon. If I am drafting a running back in the second round, it is likely going to be Gibson, unless Nick Chubb or Austin Ekeler fall. If Gibson’s ADP climbs to the start of the second round by the end of the summer, I’ll most likely become less interested, especially in full PPR leagues where you have to start three wide receivers. But overall, Gibson’s ADP feels about right.
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NFL fantasy football ranking – Antonio Gibson
Gibson comes in as the RB12 in FTN’s consensus half PPR rankings so once again, we are on the same page as ADP. His highest ranking is eighth, with his lowest being 12th, which is actually where I have him. If Washington’s offense can improve to just a league average unit, let alone a top-tier one, Gibson can easily crack the top-10 among running backs this season. There is a lot to be excited about, especially in Scott Turner’s fast-paced offense.
