First TD Bets — Wild Card Monday Slate
Alex Christenson
Data plays a massive role in fantasy football. That’s especially true for massive dorks like me who analyze this silly game every single day. And with all of the incredible data we have available at FTN Fantasy, it makes sense to utilize that information to help with fantasy football decisions.
So every Friday, I’ll run through some of my favorite stats for the week, helping you identify some of the best matchups in fantasy football. Be sure to check out the incredible FTN Fantasy StatsHub for a deep dive of all of our in-depth analytics.
Numbers to Know for Fantasy Football in the Conference Championship Round
1. Washington Allowed a 13.1% Explosive Rush Rate During the Regular Season
That was tied for the fifth-highest rate in the NFL, a somewhat frightening development when you are set to face the most explosive player in the league in Saquon Barkley. He ripped off two long touchdown runs last week. During the season, his 13.3% explosive rush rate was the eighth-highest rate in the league. Barkley had nine touchdown runs of 10-plus yards, easily the most in the league. Just last week against the Commanders, Jahmyr Gibbs had five explosive runs on just 14 carries. Look for a huge game from Barkley yet again Sunday.
2. The Chiefs Allowed 8.0 Targets Per Game to Opposing Tight Ends
Only six teams allowed more targets per game to the position this season, as it continues to be an area to attack against this Kansas City defense. The Chiefs also surrendered the second-most receptions (6.2) and most receiving yards (70.2) per game to the position. According to our DVOA-Adjusted Fantasy Points Against tool, the Chiefs allowed 18% more production to tight ends than the league average team this season, the fifth-highest rate in the NFL, making this an advantageous spot for both Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid.
3. Josh Allen Is Averaging 55 Rushing Yards Per Game over his Last 4 Meetings Against the Chiefs
We know Allen always looks to run more in the most crucial games of the season. And that was true back in Week 11 when the Bills and Chiefs first met, as Allen carried the ball 12 times for 55 yards and a touchdown. He has double-digit rushing attempts in each of his last four contests against the Chiefs and during the regular season, Kansas City allowed a healthy 25.5 rushing yards per game to opposing signal callers, good for the seventh-most in the league. I would be surprised if Allen didn’t take off and run 10-plus times Sunday, with a handful of his carries being designed.
4. Xavier Worthy Only Has 1 Target off a Go Route Since Week 11
Kansas City continues to utilize Worthy as the team’s top wide receiver, changing his role during the second half of the season. Since Week 11, Worthy is averaging seven targets per game, sporting a target share around 22%. He is averaging two screen targets per game, only seeing one target off a go route during that stretch. There are way more schemed touches for Worthy, and now he’ll face a Buffalo defense that has struggled to defend players with speed in the past. Buffalo also coughed up the fourth-highest success rate off screen passes during the regular season (52.8%).
5. Jayden Daniels Ranked 3rd in EPA/DB in the 4th Quarter and OT (0.348)
Daniels’ magical rookie season continued last Sunday in a shocking upset win over the Detroit Lions. He continues to look like anything but a rookie, especially in the clutch. In the fourth quarter and overtime of games this season, Daniels ranks third in EPA per dropback, while also ranking second in touchdown passes (12), fourth in completion rate (72.1%) and third in passer rating (115.9). We’ll see if the Washington defense can limit Philadelphia’s offense but if this game is close down the stretch, Daniels has proven he can get the job done, even when the pressure is highest.
