Fantasy Football Non-Bounceback Candidates for 2025

I look for the best possible scenario for most players in fantasy football. How can they maximize their potential? What is their ceiling? But sometimes the downside outweighs the positives and not every struggling player from the previous year gets back on track.

Wednesday, we highlighted some potential bounceback candidates for 2025. But it is just as important to identify players who may not bounce back from a disappointing season. That’s the goal today.

Fantasy Football Non-Bounceback Candidates for 2025

Quarterback

C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans

Stroud’s sophomore season wasn’t nearly as magical as his first, though there were certainly circumstances that hurt him. For starters, his wide receivers couldn’t stay on the field at the same time — Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell played just four games together. Meanwhile, Houston once again insisted on establishing the run on early downs, which led to Stroud recording the second-most pass attempts on third and long (97). The Texans offensive line was also an issue, as Stroud was under pressure on 35% of his dropbacks, the third-highest rate in the league. As a result, Stroud ranked 32nd among all signal callers in fantasy points per dropback (0.40), largely due to his limited rushing production.

I still think Stroud is going to be a really good NFL quarterback. But from a fantasy aspect, I’m not sure I envision a huge bounceback. Again, that rushing production is important, but through two seasons, Stroud is averaging just over 12 rushing yards per game. And then there’s the pass-catchers. Entering last season, Stroud was being drafted as a top-five quarterback because his rookie season was elite and Houston added Diggs in the offseason. But fast forward to 2025, and Diggs is a free agent while Dell is recovering from a very serious injury. Stroud will play better this season, but his fantasy upside will likely remain limited. So while he’ll likely bounce back, how much exactly?

Running Back

Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Each of the past two offseasons, a lot has been made of Rachaad White’s inefficiency running the football. And the concerns were valid. During the 2023 campaign, White posted the league’s third-lowest rushing success rate (30.1%), while ranking bottom-15 in DVOA in both 2022 and 2023. But it didn’t matter too much because he had no competition for touches during that span, averaging 20 touches per game in 2023. And even when the Bucs drafted Bucky Irving, many believed he wouldn’t emerge as anything more than a change-of-pace back. However, Irving wasn’t just a hit by Tampa Bay’s scouting department.

He was a home run.

As a rookie, Irving trailed only Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry and Jahmyr Gibbs in EPA per attempt (0.73), according to the FTN Fantasy StatsHub. His 3.5 yards after contact per attempt was the second-best mark in the league, and his 56 avoided tackles ranked ninth, despite ranking 18th in the NFL in carries with 207. His shiftiness and elusiveness were on full display, as Irving performed a successful juke a league-leading 5.8% of the time. Irving’s emergence led to Tampa Bay deploying a split backfield between the rookie and White, which really took shape following the team’s Week 11 bye. From then on, White logged 48.8% of the snaps and handled 13 touches per game to Irving’s 50% snap share and 18.9 touches per game. It is also worth noting that in Weeks 17 and 18, two must-win games for the Bucs, Irving out-touched White 45-7, as the rookie handled over 67% of the team’s rush attempts during that span.

Liam Coen is gone, but the Bucs hired in-house, which tells me Irving should enter the season as no less than the 1A, limiting White to middling usage. And because efficiency hasn’t been a strong suit of his, a drop in volume is a problem.

Wide Receiver

Christian Watson, Green Bay Packers

Were one of the Green Bay wide receivers on your fantasy team in 2024? Congratulations, you had zero idea when they would have a good game. The Packers wide receiver rotation was frustrating in fantasy, as no one truly emerged as the clear WR1 very often. A few years ago, we thought it could be Watson, but he simply doesn’t command targets at a high rate. Last season, he posted just a 13% target share, while drawing a target on just over 21% of his routes, which ranked outside the top-45 receivers in the league. It was already frustrating to see four Packers wideouts see work, but it makes it even more difficult to garner volume when the team emerges as one of the most run-heavy offenses in football. After adding Josh Jacobs in the offseason, Green Bay climbed to second in the league in neutral-script rush rate (52.1%). Jordan Love, meanwhile, averaged 28.3 pass attempts per game, which ranked 28th.

Watson has upside on a per-play basis. His 32.1% deep target rate was the fourth highest in the league, while his 3.7 air yards per route run ranked second. But with Jayden Reed still seeing the schemed touches in this passing attack (and Romeo Doubs and Tucker Kraft plenty involved), Watson’s ceiling for targets is capped. And if Green Bay finally decides to go after a true WR1, forget about it.

Keon Coleman, Buffalo Bills

Coleman showed flashes during his rookie season but was mostly found on waiver wires in fantasy leagues. There was potential of the rookie emerging as Josh Allen’s top target with Stefon Diggs gone, but Buffalo went with an “everybody eats” approach. Allen spread the ball around quite a bit, with Coleman averaging just 4.3 targets per game. He was mostly used down the field on deep passes and back shoulder throws, as well as the occasional fade and slant route. Perhaps Coleman’s midseason wrist injury slowed him down and while I am encouraged about his potential in the future, it is unlikely he becomes a startable fantasy player. The targets will be spread around too much, and this is still going to be one of the run-heaviest teams in the NFL.

Tight End

Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons

I’m done, man. Last offseason I was pounding the table for Pitts. I told anyone who could hear me that this was the year he truly reached his sky-high potential. “Surely Zac Robinson will scheme Pitts up against linebacker, rather than have him run routes against cornerbacks all year long.” Wrong. Pitts actually lined up in the slot less this year than he did in 2023, ultimately finishing as the TE20 in fantasy points per game. Pitts saw more than six targets just twice all year long and it just simply doesn’t look like he’s ever going to become a huge part of this Atlanta offense. It has been two years in a row where an offseason addition became the clear second option in the Atlanta passing game over Pitts — Jonnu Smith in 2023 and Darnell Mooney this past season.