Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The top teams in the NFL saw some negative regression in Week 14, tightening the divisional races in both conferences.
The Bills’ 20-17 victory over the Chiefs gave Kansas City their third loss in the last four games, putting them just one game ahead of Denver in the AFC West race. Jacksonville’s 31-27 loss at Cleveland prevented the Jaguars from extending their one-game cushion on both Indianapolis and Houston in the AFC South. Finally, Detroit’s shocking 28-13 loss at Chicago allowed the Vikings (7-6) to still hold hope for a divisional title with two games left against the Lions.
Each week, I will provide my five instant fantasy football reactions from the slate of games. What were the key performances, surprises and disappointments from across the NFL?
Let’s get into Week 14.
Week 14 Fantasy Football Instant Reactions
Reaction No. 1: Dak’s Dominance
The Cowboys won their fifth straight game in glorious fashion Sunday night with a 33-13 drubbing of Philadelphia. The Cowboys are now tied with the Eagles at 10-3 in the NFC East, with more wins within the division and in the NFC. The catalyst has been quarterback Dak Prescott, who is in the midst of his best NFL season. Prescott leads all quarterbacks with 28 touchdowns passes, and he has only six interceptions. His 69.3% completion percentage ranks third among active quarterbacks (Brock Purdy, Tua Tagovailoa), and his 74.6 QBR is the second-highest of his entire NFL career. Prescott is currently the betting favorite (+160) for the NFL MVP, leading Purdy (+200) and Lamar Jackson (+550) at DraftKings.
Reaction No. 2: Ravens Lead AFC Playoff Race
Very quietly, the Ravens have ascended to the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoff race. Baltimore won their third straight game in thrilling fashion, with a 37-31 overtime victory over the Rams.
Baltimore has now won three straight games and seven of the last eight. The Ravens travel to Jacksonville next week, followed by a fantastic Christmas matchup at San Francisco, a possible Super Bowl preview.
Reaction No. 3: Fantasy Playoffs Waiver Wire
Most leagues have either started their playoffs or begin them this week. We saw critical injuries across the NFL that will carry serious ramifications for the upcoming Week 15 matchups.
Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert suffered a fractured finger on this throwing hand, leaving midway through the second quarter and not returning. With Los Angeles still in the AFC playoff race, his status for Week 15 is very questionable.
Both C.J. Stroud and Nico Collins left Houston’s game against the Jets with injuries. Collins left in the first quarter with a calf injury, while Stroud was knocked out of the game late in the fourth quarter with a concussion. The Texans have two crucial AFC South matchups with the Titans starting in Week 15 and may be forced to start backup quarterback Davis Mills.
Minnesota lost two key offensive pieces, with All-Pro wideout Justin Jefferson (chest) and running back Alexander Mattison (ankle) both leaving the game in the Vikings’ 3-0 victory at Las Vegas. With two games left against the Lions, Minnesota’s playoff chances are still very much alive, though now they’re without potentially two of their best players.
Finally, Josh Jacobs left the Raiders game with a knee injury, putting Zamir White and Ameer Abdullah as potential hot waiver wire pickups this week. Las Vegas plays the Chargers Thursday, complicating Jacobs’ return even further.
Reaction No. 4: NFC South Logjam
There is a three-way tie atop the NFC South, with the Buccaneers, Falcons and Saints all carrying a 6-7 record. Tampa Bay earned a critical 29-25 comeback victory at Atlanta, and the Buccaneers have a Week 17 home matchup with the Saints looming large. The Buccaneers and Falcons hold a one-game advantage with a 3-1 record within the conference.
Reaction No. 5: Broncos Country? Let’s Ride
The Broncos are on fire after a brutal 1-5 start to the season, now just one game behind the Chiefs in the AFC West. Denver has won six of the last seven contests, including road matchups at Buffalo and this week at the Chargers. After spending most of the season as the worst defense per DVOA, the Broncos have now held their opponents to 17 points or fewer for each of the last three games. In a league where teams are struggling with injuries, the Broncos are relatively healthy and playing their best football of the season at the right time.
