NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Fantasy football drafts are gaining a ton of steam, especially when you look at the calendar and see that we are halfway through the month of June.
Average draft positions are always changing, and it is important to know where players are being valued in drafts. Every few weeks here at FTN Fantasy, I’ll be taking a look at some notable ADPs.
Let’s see who stands out.
Saquon Barkley, RB, New York Giants
FFPC ADP: RB11
For much of the offseason, Saquon Barkley has been viewed as one of the riskiest players in all of fantasy, with drafters often hesitant to select him in the third round or so. However, the upside of a fully healthy Barkley in an improved regime is so enticing and with the realizations of what could be this season rising, so is his draft position. Barkley had been coming off the board around the RB15 or 16 range, but over at FFPC, he is now being drafted as the RB11, just ahead of Leonard Fournette. That may be a bit high for my liking, but I am also becoming extremely excited about Barkley’s prospects under the coaching of Brian Daboll, who is one of the most creative and innovative playcallers in the NFL. The Giants will use a lot more pre-snap motion, and Daboll recently stated that as an offensive playcaller, “You find a way to get the best players the football.” And with only Matt Breida, Gary Brightwell and Antonio Williams behind him on the depth chart, Barkley should be on the field 85-90% of the time, resulting in a ton of touches. He’ll also see higher-value touches, as opposed to the last few seasons where he was running right up the middle behind a bad offensive line in Jason Garrett’s archaic offense.
The Giants also upgraded the offensive line this offseason, adding Evan Neal and Jon Feliciano. It’s still not an elite unit, per our FTN Fantasy offensive line rankings, but it’s a step above last year’s unit. In 2021, the Giants generated just 1.36 yards before contact per rush attempt, the ninth-lowest mark in football. And as for Barkley, a whopping 51% of his rush attempts were stuffed at or behind the line of scrimmage this past season, which was the eighth-highest rate among all running backs with at least 70 carries. Health has been a concern for Barkley, who has missed 18 games over the last two seasons. But if he can stay on the field, I expect a return to prominence in 2022.
Kadarius Toney, WR, New York Giants
FFPC ADP: WR47
Staying in New York, Kadarius Toney presents some of the most upside among any receiver being drafted outside of the top 35 wideouts, let alone top 40. We saw evidence that not only can Toney play in the NFL, but he can do so at a very high level. Among all qualified receivers from last season, Toney ranked 11th in yards per route run (2.14) and showed the ability to win against both press and man coverage. The Giants were among the bottom-five teams in pre-snap motion last season, but expect that to change with Daboll in town. Look for the Giants to move Toney all over the formation and find ways to get him the football. Coming off a rookie campaign where Toney ranked seventh among all receivers in targets per route run, expect him to enter his sophomore season as the top target in an improved offense.
Tyler Boyd, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
FFPC ADP: WR51
No, Tyler Boyd is not the most exciting receiver in fantasy football. In fact, he’s far from it. However, he is still one of my favorite late-round wide receivers to target, especially since he is coming off draft boards outside of the top-50 receivers. I get it, his overall numbers last season weren’t eye-popping. But let’s take a closer look. When Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase were active, Boyd wasn’t spectacular, averaging just over three receptions per game. However, consider that to start the season, the Bengals were easing Joe Burrow back from his 2020 injuries. In Weeks 1-8, Cincinnati posted the 11th-lowest pass rate in the NFL (56.9%). During Weeks 9-18, the Bengals climbed to 12th in overall passing rate (59.5%). And in Weeks 9-17 (the Bengals rested starters Week 18) Boyd was the WR27 in fantasy football, giving the Bengals three top-30 fantasy wideouts during that stretch. Burrow can support three top-35 wide receivers, especially if the Bengals continue their uptick in passing rate in 2022. And Boyd can also be viewed as a receiver handcuff, as he’d be an every-week starter if Higgins or Chase miss any time.
Cole Kmet, TE, Chicago Bears
FFPC ADP: TE16
This ADP makes zero sense to me. Yes, I understand Cole Kmet failed to find the end zone last season, despite ranking sixth among all tight ends with a solid 17% target share. But the departure of Jimmy Graham can’t hurt Kmet’s 2022 potential. While Graham only logged 23% of the offensive snaps last year, he made his presence felt in the red zone. Graham had six end zone targets last year, just over 27% of his targets coming there, the highest rate in football. Given how poor Chicago’s group of pass-catchers is, Kmet could easily finish inside of the top-seven among tight ends in routes, receptions and targets this season, while the touchdowns are obviously going to improve. He’s a top-10 tight end for me yet is being drafted outside of the top-15 tight ends.
