Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
We close out the Fantasy Crossroads series for the 2022 NFL season with a look at two of the greatest quarterbacks in the history of football. Tom Brady has been cooking quite often since joining Tampa Bay, while Russell Wilson is hoping to finally get the opportunity to do so now that he is no longer in Seattle.
Let’s see which of these legends you should be targeting in your fantasy football drafts for 2022.
Tom Brady, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Case for Brady
Hmm, I don’t know. Have you watched any football over the last 20 years?
The unquestioned greatest of all time, Brady has continued to post massive numbers during his two seasons in Tampa Bay. After throwing for 40 touchdowns and 4,633 yards in his first season with the Bucs in 2020, Brady followed it with 5,316 yards and 43 touchdowns at age 44 this past season, while finishing as the QB3 in all of fantasy. The volume was insane for Brady, who attempted the second-most regular season passes in the history of football (719). Brady’s arm isn’t losing much of anything, however, as his 43 highlight throws last season trailed only Aaron Rodgers, while he completed 45.3% of his deep passes, good for the third-highest rate among quarterbacks with at least 100 pass attempts. Tampa Bay’s aerial attack has been very aggressive, which isn’t a surprise considering that Bruce Arians was the head coach over the last two seasons. In his two seasons as Tampa Bay’s starting quarterback, Brady first and eighth in intended air yards per pass attempt (9.1, 8.1). And back in 2019, Byron Leftwich’s first year as the team’s offensive coordinator, quarterback Jameis Winston averaged a whopping 10.4 intended air yards per pass attempt, while his 5.2 air yards per completion trailed only Matthew Stafford. Nearly 16% of Winston’s pass attempts during that season traveled at least 20 yards down the field, the fourth-highest rate among qualified signal callers. This past season. Brady, even at age 44, led all quarterbacks with 5,783 air yards.
The volume is also elite for Brady and Tampa Bay. No team sported a higher pass rate in neutral gamescripts than the Bucs (67%), while they still ranked second in passing rate when up by eight or more points (55.5%). It doesn’t matter if Tampa Bay was ahead by three scores in the fourth quarter, Brady and company were dropping back to pass more often than not. Only the Chiefs and Bills called pass more times on first down than the Bucs last season (312), while Brady attempted at least 40 passes in 11 different contests. Entering the 2022 campaign, don’t expect Tampa Bay’s offensive philosophy to change very much, if at all.
The Case Against Brady
There aren’t many cases to be made against Brady, though many have tried to make arguments over the last few seasons. Sure, at some point, he isn’t going to throw 40 touchdown passes, while perhaps Tampa Bay becomes a bit more balanced on offense this season. Losing center Ryan Jensen for at least the majority of the regular season definitely hurts, especially since Brady has developed quite the rapport with Jensen. Tampa Bay’s wideouts are also dealing with some injuries at the moment, while tight end Rob Gronkowski is retired (for now?). Still, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Julio Jones, Russell Gage and Leonard Fournette make for a pretty, pretty good offense. The real case against Brady is the fact that he doesn’t add any value in the rushing department, which is why having that elite passing volume has been huge for him.
Russell Wilson, QB, Denver Broncos
The Case for Wilson
After years of not being able to cook in Seattle, Russell Wilson will look to do just that in Denver. Wilson has been one of the league’s most efficient quarterbacks for years, ranking top-10 in fantasy points per dropback in eight of his last 10 seasons in Seattle. Wilson has only reached 550 pass attempts twice throughout his career but could easily set a career-high in passes in Denver, especially in an AFC West that could feature plenty of high-scoring contests. And we know his aggressive play will lead to some huge outings, as Wilson has ranked first, 11th, fourth and fourth in average depth of target over the last four years. Wilson will surely take plenty of shots down the field, but I also believe this scheme in Denver will lead to more screen attempts, which is something Wilson isn’t exactly used to. The screen game has been a huge part of the Packers offense during Nathaniel Hackett’s tenure. In fact, from 2019 to 2021, Aaron Rodgers ranked second (85), second (76) and third (85) in screen pass attempts. And during that same span, 14% of Rodgers’ dropbacks have come on screen plays, one of the highest rates among all qualified signal callers. Of course, a lot of that was simply manufacturing touches for Davante Adams and Aaron Jones, who have been Green Bay’s clear lead pass-catchers over the last few seasons. But Blake Bortles ranked sixth (63), 11th (54) and 26th (34) in screen attempts during his three years alongside Hackett in Jacksonville. And keep in mind that Bortles also missed three games during his final season with Hackett. If the screen game is an integral part of the Denver passing game, that will be very interesting for Wilson, who has ranked outside the top-15 quarterbacks in screen attempts in six of the last seven seasons.
The Case Against Wilson
While we can project what Wilson and this Broncos passing game might look like, it is still a question mark, whereas we know exactly what Brady and Tampa Bay’s offense is going to look like. And while everyone wants to see a season where Wilson throws the ball 600-plus times, the Broncos still have two very good running backs and a very solid defensive unit. Wilson could easily set a career-high in pass attempts, but that could also still be nearly 100 fewer passes than Brady.
The Verdict: Tom Brady
Tom Brady’s elite and predictable volume is just too difficult to overlook. And while we know Brady isn’t going to provide any upside in the rushing department, Wilson is quietly coming off a season where posted a career-low 3.1 rushing attempts per game. Wilson should once again remain one of the most efficient quarterbacks in all of football, especially given all of the talent the Broncos have on offense. And he is going to have a handful of 345-yard, 4-touchdown games on just 27 passes. But Brady likely throws the football close to 650 times and flirts with 40 touchdowns in an offense that is loaded at wide receiver.
