Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Our Fantasy Crossroads series continues with our first matchup between quarterbacks. Joe Burrow and Kyler Murray are two of the best young signal callers in football and should continue to dominate the NFL for the next decade. But who gets the edge in fantasy football for the 2022 season?
Let’s find out.
Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals
The Case for Burrow
I mean, did you watch him play last season? Joe Burrow led the Bengals to a surprise Super Bowl appearance on the back of his 4,611 yards and 34 touchdowns. The sophomore signal caller finished as the QB8 in fantasy, though it is worth noting that the Bengals rested their starters in Week 18. Burrow led all quarterbacks with at least 150 dropbacks in adjusted completion percentage (79.6%), which is even more impressive when you consider that he also sported the league’s ninth-highest average depth of target (8.57 yards). He also ranked second in completed air yards per pass attempt (4.5), while leading the league in yards per attempt (8.9). And according to FTN Fantasy’s advanced passing stats, only Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady and Josh Allen recorded more highlight passes than Burrow (40), which are passes that only the receiver can catch. These passes require perfect placement from the quarterback.
It turns out reuniting with a former college teammate can be great for a quarterback. Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase rekindled their game-breaking play from LSU in Cincinnati, as the duo led the NFL in vertical touchdown passes a year ago. Burrow’s 12 touchdown passes on go routes led the league, with over half of them going to Chase. This is already one of the top quarterback/receiver duos in all of football and Chase’s presence has fully unlocked the ceiling of Burrow. He completed nearly 42% of his deep passes a season ago, and that was despite him possibly being rusty to start the season after 2020’s awful injury. The Bengals did ease him in a bit to start the season, as Cincinnati ranked just 22nd in passing rate in Weeks 1-8 (56.93%). However, in Weeks 9-17, Cincinnati climbed to 13th in passing rate at about 59%. Burrow tossed at least two touchdown passes in 13-of-16 games last season, averaging the sixth-most fantasy points per dropback (0.56). We also saw two otherworldly performances against the Ravens where he threw for 416 and 525 yards and seven total touchdowns.
Entering his third season, there is perhaps even more to like about Burrow. For starters, he still has arguably the best trio of wide receivers in all of football with Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd. Chase presents a rare combination of size and speed with the ability to take any play 80 yards to the house. Higgins is a borderline-elite contested catch wideout. And Boyd is the consistent slot receiver across the middle of the field. The only issue Burrow really had last season was staying upright. Cincinnati’s offensive line (mainly the right side) struggled last season, as the Bengals posted the league’s second-highest adjusted sack rate (9.1%). Meanwhile, Burrow was under pressure on around 38% of his dropbacks during the postseason. However, the Bengals wisely provided their franchise player with protection this offseason, adding La’el Collins, Ted Karras and Alex Cappa in free agency and landing this line 10th in the FTN Fantasy offensive line rankings. Giving Burrow even more time is a terrifying concept when you consider he led the league in completion percentage from a clean pocket last season (76.2%). The improvements made to the offensive line were the missing puzzle piece that could truly make this Bengals offense unstoppable.
The Case Against Burrow
Because the quarterback position is deeper than ever, the only real case against Burrow in fantasy is the fact that he doesn’t offer much upside with his legs. Last season, Burrow ranked 30th at the position in carries per game (2.5), while averaging just 7.4 rushing yards per game (35th). You would obviously love to see more from that aspect but Burrow is a legitimate candidate to throw for 5,000 yards and 40 touchdowns so it really isn’t the end of the world.
Outside of that, I’d say I would like to see Cincinnati’s offense play up in pace a bit more in 2022. Last season, the Bengals ranked 30th in average seconds per snap (29.2), while they ran no-huddle just 3.01% of the time, the second-lowest rate in the NFL.
Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals
The Case for Murray
Kyler Murray had a bit of a strange 2021 campaign. He and the Cardinals got off to a roaring start and Murray appeared to be on his way to an overall QB1 finish in fantasy. Murray scored 34.6 and 35.1 fantasy points in his first two games, scoring a rushing touchdown in each of his first three contests. On the other hand, his fantasy production was a bit up-and-down over the course of the rest of the season. Still, Murray presents immense upside. Despite lacking an elite deep threat at wide receiver, Murray still posted the second-highest completion percentage on deep passes last year (49.3%), and it wasn’t skewed by lack of volume, as 14.3% of his pass attempts traveled at least 20 yards down the field, the third-highest mark in the league. Murray also posted the fourth-highest yards per attempt (7.9), as well as the seventh-most air yards per attempt (8.4). In 2020, Murray ranked outside of the top-20 in both categories, so this was a massive step forward for him and presents him with even more upside, especially after the Cardinals added Marquise Brown via trade.
Keep in mind he missed three games, but Murray threw for just 24 touchdowns, tossing one or fewer touchdowns in eight different games over the course of the season. The emergence of James Conner actually hurt Murray at times, as the back converted touchdowns at such a high rate. Conner scored 10 rushing touchdowns on 16 carries from inside the 5-yard line last season, trailing only Jonathan Taylor among all players. I don’t envision Conner being as efficient from in close again, and assuming that is the case, we should see more end zone throws from Murray, as well as potentially more rushes from inside the 10-yard line. And of course, a huge part of Murray’s game is his dual-threat ability. Murray averaged 6.3 carries and just over 30 rushing yards per game last year, while 200 of his rushing yards came off designed runs. That will continue to be part of this Arizona offense that is always among the league leaders in pace of play. Last season, the Cardinals ran no-huddle 35.8% of the time, easily the highest rate in the NFL. Murray’s upside is obviously as high as nearly any quarterback in the league, especially if the touchdown rate climbs this season.
The Case Against Murray
A few months ago, there really weren’t many cases against Murray. However, there is now a pretty glaring one: The absence of DeAndre Hopkins.
Hopkins will be suspended for the first six games of the season, which is obviously very notable. Murray played in five games with Hopkins out of the lineup last season and in those contests, he averaged just 15.5 fantasy points per game, while his passing yards per game went from 278.2 with Hopkins active to 227.6 with him sidelined. His passing touchdowns per game dropped from 1.9 to 1.0 and with how good Hopkins was in the red zone last season, his absence will certainly be felt to start the year.
The Verdict: Joe Burrow
This is very, very close, as both quarterbacks are just one spot apart for me in our FTN Fantasy rankings. However, while I do expect some regression on deep touchdowns from Burrow, I just worry about the absence of Hopkins for Murray during those first six games of the season. And while both players are so, so, so good, that is enough to make the difference for me.
