NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Our Fantasy Crossroads series continues with a look at the tight end position. We have a 2022 breakout and a tight end who probably would have posted a breakout campaign if it hadn’t been for a late-season injury.
Let’s break it down.
Dalton Schultz, TE, Dallas Cowboys
The Case for Schultz
Every single season, a tight end emerges onto the fantasy scene and becomes an every-week starter.
In 2021, Dalton Schultz was clearly that player.
Coming off his torn ACL, there was more excitement surrounding Blake Jarwin entering the 2022 season. However, Schultz operated as the lead tight end, while Jarwin only played about half of the season. Schultz’s 78 receptions trailed only Mark Andrews and Travis Kelce among all tight ends, while also only trailing both tight ends in fantasy points at the position. He was insanely consistent all season long, recording at least 45 receiving yards in 12 games, while seeing at least six targets in 11 contests. Despite playing alongside CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup for much of the season, Schultz still saw 17% of Dallas’ first-read targets last season, while his 81 overall first-read targets were the sixth-most among all tight ends. After seeing a ton of volume last year, Schultz could potentially be in line for more targets, as the Cowboys moved on from both Amari Cooper and Cedrick Wilson this offseason. Cooper and Wilson combined for about 26% of Dallas’ targets last season, but keep in mind that Gallup is still recovering from a torn ACL and could miss the first few games of the season. That would leave the Cowboys with Lamb and Schultz to dominate the targets, at least to start the season.
Schultz played in seven games alongside Gallup, Lamb and Cooper last season, and while his numbers obviously dipped in that split, he still averaged a very solid 11.1 PPR points per game, while averaging more receptions per game (5.0) alongside the three receivers than he did when at least one of the wideouts were inactive (4.55). His targets per game in the split (6.14) were right on par with what they were out of the split (6.27), and entering the 2022 season, it is difficult to not project Schultz to finish second on the Cowboys in targets. Last season, Schultz operated out of the slot a healthy 44.2% of the time, 14th among tight ends, while lining up in line just over 43% of the time. I could easily see his slot rate climb this season with Cooper and Wilson gone, which could lead to a Mike Gesicki-type slot receiver role, which is fantasy-friendly. Simply put, Schultz projects to be one of the busiest tight ends in the NFL, while playing in a good offense. There is a lot to like.
The Case against Schultz
There really isn’t much to dislike about Schultz’s situation going forward. He is one of the top targets in a very good offense and should provide a safe weekly floor. If I had to make a few cases against Schultz, one would be the fact that he isn’t going to provide many huge plays in the passing game. His five deep targets last year ranked just 16th among all tight ends, while he also only averaged 4.4 yards after the catch per reception, which ranked 29th at the position. However, if his volume is as favorable as we expect it to be, the lack of explosive plays really won’t matter. But if for whatever reason the volume is underwhelming, you’ll be looking for those huge plays.
TJ Hockenson, TE, Detroit Lions
The Case for Hockenson
TJ Hockenson was one of the most hyped tight ends in the league entering last season, and at first, it looked like a huge year was in store. In Weeks 1 and 2, Hockenson was the clear focal point of a Lions passing game that seriously lacked receiver talent. During that span, he hauled in 16-of-20 targets for 163 yards and a pair of touchdowns, getting off to a scorching start. After that, he was a bit up-and-down, but through the first 13 weeks of the season, Hockenson was the TE3 in all of fantasy, while also ranking third in receptions (64) and eighth in receiving yards (583) during that stretch. However, a hand injury kept him out of action for the final five weeks of the season, which limited him to a TE15 finish in fantasy. Like Schultz, volume was on Hockenson’s side, as his 21% target share was the fifth-highest mark among all tight ends. Quarterback Jared Goff looked his way quite a bit, as Hockenson averaged about seven targets per game before his injury. Hockenson is still an immensely talented player and really hasn’t put it all together for a full season with Goff. In 2021, during his inaugural campaign in Detroit, Goff posted the lowest intended air yards per pass attempt among all qualified signal-callers (6.4), while his 4.5 air yards per completion was also the lowest mark in the league. Nearly 16% of his pass attempts were behind the line of scrimmage last season, while 50.8% of his passes were of the short variety (0-9 yards), the eighth-highest rate in football.
The Case against Hockenson
Detroit added both Jameson Williams and DJ Chark at wide receiver during the offseason. The field-stretching ability of both players should provide Hockenson plenty of real estate to operate in the underneath/intermediate parts of the field, but you have to wonder if the target share drops, especially after a stellar rookie season from Amon-Ra St. Brown. Going into last season, one of the best cases to draft Hockenson was the fact that the Lions had one of the worst wide receiver rooms in the NFL. That certainly isn’t the case anymore, while running back D’Andre Swift is definitely a candidate to lead all running backs in receptions.
The Verdict: Schultz
Both tight ends are coming off draft boards in the same range, but I’m giving the edge to Schultz. I don’t envision a ton of huge plays from either player, but I do envision a more consistent target share from Schultz in what should still be a better offense.
