Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
(All summer, Adam Pfeifer will be putting the tightest fantasy football picks under the microscope in our ADP Decisions series.)
We continue our ADP series with a matchup between two veteran wide receivers who some people may be overlooking entering 2021. But the fact of the matter is that Allen Robinson and Julio Jones are still elite NFL wide receivers.
Things are changing this season, however, as Julio is on a new team and Robinson might (once again) have a new quarterback throwing him passes.
The case for Allen Robinson
One again, Robinson suffered from poor quarterback play in 2020.
And once again, it didn’t matter.
Robinson hauled in a career-high 102 balls for 1,250 yards and six touchdowns, en route to a WR9 fantasy finish in PPR leagues. He was the clear top option in this Chicago passing game, sporting a 25.4% target share, good for the seventh-highest mark among all pass-catchers. Meanwhile, his 151 targets trailed only DeAndre Hopkins and Stefon Diggs, as Robinson saw at least nine targets in 11 of 16 games. Whenever Mitchell Trubisky or Nick Foles dropped back to pass (more on that later), their eyes shifted to Robinson more often than not. In fact, per FTN’s advanced receiving stats, Robinson led the entire NFL in first read targets (119), while his first read share of 29% was good for the fourth-highest rate in the league, too. Robinson was also responsible for 25% of the Bears receptions (fifth) and 31% of their receiving yards (also fifth), as this Chicago passing attack clearly ran through the All-Pro wideout.
Meanwhile, outside of Jimmy Graham’s annoying touchdown rate (8 TDs on 50 receptions), Robinson also dominated the money targets. Robinson’s 14 end zone targets were tied for the fourth-most in the NFL, while he also saw 32% of Chicago’s end zone looks, good for the ninth-highest mark in the league. And while Robinson scored six touchdowns, he should have scored more, as he only converted four of those 14 end zone looks into touchdowns, which were tied for the fewest number of touchdowns by a player inside the top-10 in end zone targets. I don’t think I’m breaking any news when I say that the quarterback play in Chicago last year was not exactly stellar, which isn’t shocking when you consider that playing alongside below-average quarterbacks is apparently in Robinson’s contract. 70% of his targets were deemed catchable last season, which ranked 47th among all receivers with at least 50 targets last season. Heading into the 2021 campaign, the Bears will have a new starting quarterback, whether it is Andy Dalton or Justin Fields. I think we’d all prefer Fields to start but even if Dalton is under center, it should be at least a slight upgrade, as just over 78% of his passes were deemed on-target last year. Meanwhile, if/when Fields takes over, this offense could quietly take off. Fields was an extremely accurate passer during his time at Ohio State while truly showcasing some of the best accuracy we’ve seen from a quarterback prospect over the last handful of years. It is not only possible but likely that Fields is already the best quarterback that Robinson has ever played with in his career. Still the clear focal point of a passing attack that could be on the rise, Robinson remains a smash top-12 fantasy wide receiver for 2021.
The case for Julio Jones
Thinking Julio Jones is washed is like thinking candy corn is delicious– it is flat-out wrong and I will not hear otherwise. Sure, Jones is 32-years old and is coming off a season where he missed seven total games while playing limited snaps in two others as he dealt with injury. And while many are quick to label Jones as “injury-prone,” keep in mind that this was the first season he’s missed significant time since 2013. And when Jones was on the field last year, he was very good, per usual. His 2.60 yards per route run were good for fourth among qualified receivers, while his 16.2 PPR points per game ranked 14th in the league. Jones has always been elite in terms of yards per route run, which can be a metric that tends to be a fairly predictive one, ranking inside the top-five in that department in each of his last seven seasons. And in his seven full games from last year, Jones caught 45 balls for 700 yards and three touchdowns, as he continues to dominate in terms of yardage. In addition, his career yards per game mark of 95.5 is the best in NFL history. He also had a 123 passer rating when targeted, which was the seventh-best mark among receivers with at least 50 targets last year.
So Jones clearly still has plenty left in the tank but how will he fit in this Tennessee offense? Jones will join A.J. Brown to create the best wide receiver duo in the NFL, but he’ll join the most run-heavy offense he’s ever been in. However, this will be a very concentrated passing offense. He goes from a fading Matt Ryan to an uber-efficient Ryan Tannehill at quarterback. Since taking over as the starting quarterback for the Titans, Tannehill is second among all signal-callers in fantasy points per dropback while also ranking among the league leaders in completion percentage during that span (67%). And that was all while taking shots down the field, averaging nearly nine yards per attempt. With Derrick Henry, A.J. Brown and Julio on the field, this Tennessee offense is going to be very difficult to stop, putting all three players in advantageous situations. Given where they are in their careers, it is very fair to believe that Brown is the 1A in this offense but even at age 32, Jones is far from done.
The verdict: Allen Robinson
Julio is one of my favorite receivers of all time and I truly believe he is going to be great yet again, this time in Tennessee. However, I cannot ignore the consistent massive target volume that Robinson sees, and his offense has a better chance of having some pass-heavy game scripts. No longer a consensus top-five receiver in fantasy rankings, Jones still has the potential to be a top-15 player at his position but I do feel safer with Robinson.
