Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Welcome to the Dynasty Stock Watch, a weekly article where I address the changes in the dynasty fantasy football landscape. This will help us as managers stay current on the most recent headlines, while also allowing us to look at player and team trends to stay ahead of the curve.
I am focusing on the incoming rookie class this week with the NFL draft approaching. Last week I gave you two names for the running back position who are under the radar. This week, I will highlight a few players in similar situations but for the wide receiver position.
Parker Washington, Penn State
Parker Washington isn’t the flashiest receiver in this class. As a result, he is currently garnering little hype amongst the fantasy community. But he should be. In his three seasons at Penn State, he amassed 1,920 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns on 146 receptions. He was top 10 in the Big 10 in receiving yards during back-to-back seasons (2020-21). Throughout his college career, he has forced 38 missed tackles according to PFF – tied for ninth in the class. He is also sixth in the class in contested target catch percentage (53.3%) on 30 targets. His career 5.2 drop percentage is tied for the seventh-lowest in the class as well, showing he’s a reliable target.
Washington is one of, if not the most consistent wide receivers in this group who will always get you the yardage required no matter the down and distance. He may not take the top off the defense regularly, but he has shown the ability to make the defense pay when they overcommit. This deceptive speed, paired with his physicality, makes him a tough tackle after the catch. His body control and leverage at the catch point are unmatched. He has the mold to become one of the most reliable targets in the NFL and a quality fantasy asset.
Xavier Hutchinson, Iowa State
Much like the aforementioned Washington, Xavier Hutchinson is far from the flashiest receiver in this class. That hasn’t held him back, as he caught 254 passes for 2,929 yards and 15 touchdowns in just three years. This past season, he led the Big 12 in receiving yards with 1,171 yards – his third straight 700+ yard season. More impressively, he has led the Big 12 in receptions the last three seasons and is tied for seventh in the conference since 1996 with 254 receptions. It’s no surprise he’s sixth in the class with only a 4.9% drop percentage while catching 48.4% of his contested targets. On top of this, PFF credited him with 42 missed tackles forced en route to 1,331 yards after the catch.
Hutchinson is extremely good at boxing out the defender and positioning himself to make catches. This comes in handy because he fails to create a ton of separation. He does create separation on curl routes and comebacks but lacks the top-end speed to test the defense deep or run away from tacklers in the open field. This also carries over to his short-area movements where he lacks lateral speed and explosiveness. This will be his biggest hurdle as he enters the league, but it’s hard to ignore his elite production profile as he transitions to the NFL.
Jason Brownlee, Southern Mississippi
Jason Brownlee is a deep name who is completely off most people’s radar. He should be on yours, though. In three seasons, he’s been extremely productive, producing 2,144 yards and 21 touchdowns on only 135 receptions. His 891 receiving yards and eight touchdowns in 2022 were both top 10 in the Sun Belt Conference. Looking deeper into the stats, we see that he’s caught 44.9% of his contested targets and only dropped 6.3% of his career targets. The most impressive stat may be his career 2.26 yards per route run, which ranks 18th in this class and ahead of guys like Jayden Reed, Zay Flowers, Cedric Tillman, Parker Washington and Jonathan Mingo.
Brownlee offers a strong release package and fluidity to his routes that allows him to create separation. He also had good speed and ball-tracking ability, which allowed him to win at multiple levels of the passing game. But he excelled most as a deep threat. This speed and fluidity translates to after the catch, where he’s very dangerous and consistently picks up extra yards. One of the biggest questions will be if he can succeed at the NFL level with his lack of physicality and twitch laterally. On top of this, there will be questions whether Brownlee can make the jump from the Sun Belt to the NFL.
