Dynasty stock report entering the offseason

The offseason has arrived. Now we usher in the best season. Dynasty szn is here. Continuing this week’s dive back into the dynasty waters, we look at the stock for various players. Some are trending up, and others are heading in the wrong direction. Many of the players on each list could see their value shift further depending on how the NFL offseason unfolds. 

All ADP referenced per DLF December 2021 & January 2022 ADP. 

Dynasty Stock Report – Stock up

Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Miami Dolphins

(December ADP: QB14, January ADP: QB18)

Tua Tagovailoa’s ADP has dipped, but I expect that to rebound once we have February ADP data to parse through. Much of that can be traced to all of the rumors related to the Dolphins’ reluctance to commit to Tagovailoa and his name being floated in trades. Everything on social media has been positive surrounding Tagovailoa recently with the hiring of Mike McDaniel. While Tagovailoa’s QB24 finish in fantasy points per game won’t wow anyone last season, he did offer hope that he’s just scratching the surface. Among quarterbacks with 150 dropbacks or 200 or more passing attempts, he finished first in deep completion rate and fourth in play-action completion rate. The arrow is pointing up for Tagovailoa in South Beach. 

Rashaad Penny, RB, Seattle Seahawks

(December ADP: RB54, January ADP: RB31)

Rashaad Penny was left for dead in dynasty before January. To conclude the season beginning in December, his performances breathed new life into his stock. In Weeks 13-18, he averaged 18.3 touches and 125.7 total yards per game as the RB5 in fantasy scoring per game. He finished first in yards after contact per attempt among running backs with 50 or more rushing attempts. This should serve as proof that when he’s healthy, the talent is real. As an unrestricted free agent, we’ll see where his value goes from here, but he has put himself in a good position to receive a decent contract entering his age-26 season. 

Gabriel Davis, WR, Buffalo Bills

(December ADP: WR70, January ADP: WR50)

Gabriel Davis was a player on the rise before the NFL playoffs, but his performance against the Chiefs cemented his meteoric rise. Over his final five regular-season games, he finished as a top-30 fantasy wide receiver three times. Don’t expect Davis’s hype to slow down in the offseason. He has two more seasons tied to Josh Allen before he could test the free-agency waters. Among all wide receivers with 50 or more targets in the regular season, he finished 46th in yards per route run immediately ahead of A.J. Green and Adam Thielen. If you factor in his playoff games, he ranked 13th in yards per route run behind Tyreek Hill among the same group of receivers. Either way you view Davis, he’s a player to keep tabs on, as Cole Beasley will be 33 next season and Emmanuel Sanders will be an unrestricted free agent entering 2022. Next year, Davis could battle it out with Dawson Knox for the second option in the passing attack behind Stefon Diggs. 

Kenneth Gainwell, RB, Philadelphia Eagles

(December ADP: RB43, January ADP: RB45)

Kenneth Gainwell’s stock up isn’t reflected in the January ADP because people aren’t yet weighing the contract statuses of other players in that backfield. Boston Scott is a restricted free agent, and Jordan Howard is an unrestricted free agent. Neither back is assured of returning to Philadelphia for the 2022 season. The Eagles could enter Week 1 with a running back depth chart led by Miles Sanders and Gainwell. While Gainwell only received limited opportunities last year, he produced when called upon. He ranked 13th in yards created per touch and 11th in yards per route run at the running back position. If you’re looking to acquire his services in dynasty, now is the time before the hype volume gets turned up. 

Dynasty Stock Report – Stock down

Aaron Jones, RB, Green Bay Packers

(December ADP: RB17, January ADP: RB20)

Aaron Jones’ stock began to dip as the season rolled along and his stranglehold on the backfield loosened along with his volume. Jones will enter his age-28 season, coming off a year where he saw his lowest carry total since 2018. This isn’t likely to change with A.J. Dillon becoming a staple of the Packers’ rushing attack. From Week 14, Dillon ate into Jones’ early-down role and pass routes while also cornering the market on red-zone opportunities. Jones’ ADP will likely take another dip once we have February drafts to look at. 

Weeks 14-17

Ryan Tannehill, QB, Tennessee Titans

(December ADP: QB22, January ADP: QB21)

The stink from Ryan Tannehill’s playoff blunder of three picks and 220 passing yards against Cincinnati won’t help him through the offseason. While Twitter loves focusing on QB wins, those won’t save him in dynasty circles. Tannehill will walk into next year as the likely starter for Tennessee, but there’s not much to chew on to believe that he will see his dynasty stock rebound (or likely hold). I have professed my disdain for Todd Downing’s abilities as an offensive coordinator. Still, Tannehill himself has already seen his passing touchdown rates and yards per attempt decline for three straight seasons. If you have him on a roster in dynasty, you’re likely stuck holding the bag unless you can move him in-season if a team has a quarterback go down due to injury or underperformance. 

Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

(December ADP: WR23, January ADP: WR23)

Unless the Super Bowl ring-toting stallion Tom Brady rides back into Tampa Bay, Mike Evans could be in trouble in 2022. Evans just racked up his eighth straight 1,000-yard receiving season, and he got into the end zone 14 times, so it seems crazy to some that he could fall out of the top 24 dynasty wide receivers. Evans will also be 29 in the upcoming year. If free-agent departures and poor quarterback play decimate the roster, he will plummet like a stone in dynasty circles. The best hope to move him currently in dynasty is as a piece in a larger deal to a team that could look to go all-in for next year. 

Michael Pittman, WR, Indianapolis Colts

(December ADP: WR22, January ADP: WR21)

Michael Pittman might be a surprising name on this list, but what the Colts do this offseason will have a huge bearing on him. Pittman stepped up as the unquestioned alpha for Indianapolis last year. In 2021 he led the team in target share (25%), air yard share (31%), end-zone target share (22%), and red-zone target share (24%). Unfortunately, his ceiling could be capped moving forward. The quarterback situation is an obvious issue, as the team doesn’t know what they want to do with Carson Wentz, but this also speaks to the larger worries on their offensive design. 

In the first eight weeks of the season, the Colts passed at the 11th-highest rate (60.0%) in close games, but that declined to 53.3% (second-highest neutral script rushing rate) in Weeks 9-18. This move toward a run-centric offense hurt Pittman’s numbers. As the clear leader of this passing attack, his floor remains quite high. If the team is forced to stick with Wentz, or they have another game-manager type under center next year, Pittman’s dynasty stock could fall unless he can combat the volume issues with touchdown production.