NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Last week, we looked at the worst draft picks of the last decade. Peyton Manning, Jordy Nelson, freaking Eddie Lacy. Guys who went early in your fantasy football drafts and not only played poorly, but played a lot, so you couldn’t even get the benefit of benching them. In short, they were the guys who, if you were the type to swear off a player, you swore off them, because their failures hurt a lot.
This week, let’s do the opposite. The guys who became your favorite player, for at least a little while, by virtue of being your late-round pick who saved the day. And of course, along the way, we will once again Remember Some Guys™.
Once again, we have some caveats: Unlike the worst picks, when I looked at points per game, this time we’re looking at raw total. It probably doesn’t make a difference, but best is best. And for a lot (most?) of these guys, they were such late-round picks that they might not even have been on your roster when they started to produce. Such is the life of the late-round lottery pick.
I looked at the top 12 PPR finishers at QB and TE, top 24 at RB and WR the last decade and checked where they were in positional ADP that season. Much easier than the worst picks methodology! I’ll also list the three players right before our picks in ADP, just to twist the knife a little bit, because you know you never got any of these guys. (I’m also not doing the conclusions/what we can learn after each position, because almost every time it’s some variant of “Well, there’s not really a pattern here, but try to find guys who luck into jobs, k?”)
Quarterback
Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers (2020)
PPR Points: 332.8, QB9
ADP: QB36
There can’t really be anyone who (a) drafted Justin Herbert and then (b) held on to him when Tyrod Taylor was named the starter. Anyone, that is, except my buddy Brad, who drafted him late in our superflex and held on to him … and it’s a keeper league, and Brad still has him today. Brad’s a jerk, is my point.
Anyway, Herbert not only got the starting job when Taylor’s doctor punctured his lung (what a weird phrase), he shattered the QB passing TD record and finished as a top-10 fantasy QB.
Who you drafted over Herbert: Jarrett Stidham, J.J. Taylor, J.J. Jones (who?)
Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks (2022)
PPR Points: 303.9, QB5
ADP: QB35
This time a year ago, we wondered if Geno Smith or Drew Lock would be the Seahawks’ starting quarterback, and whether either one would lead the Seahawks to the first overall pick in this year’s draft. Instead, Smith won the job and was decent in Week 1 and bad in Week 2 (against the 49ers, to be fair) before going off in Weeks 3-5 with finishes of QB7, QB2 and QB4, the overall QB2 in that stretch. Outta nowhere, that guy.
Who you drafted over Smith: Sony Michel, Marlon Mack, Cade York (a kicker!)
Blake Bortles, Jacksonville Jaguars (2015)
PPR points: 316.1, QB4
ADP: QB28
Blake Bortles was very bad as a rookie in 2014. And to be fair, he wasn’t good in 2015 — he improved his PFF grade from 46.7 to 65.2, which is sort of like upgrading your Yugo to, like, a Corolla. But Bortles garbage-timed his way to fantasy success on the 5-11 Jaguars, finishing seventh in the league in passing yards, second in touchdowns … and first in interceptions. He inspired Matthew Berry’s phrase “Bortling his way to glory.”
Who you drafted over Bortles: Heath Miller, Donte Moncrief, Dwayne Bowe (those are actually three known names! But two were almost done and one hadn’t broken out yet)
Running Back
Justin Forsett, Baltimore Ravens (2014)
PPR points: 246.9, RB8
ADP: Undrafted
Alex Collins, Baltimore Ravens (2017)
PPR points: 171.0, RB21
ADP: Undrafted
After Ray Rice, but before Lamar Jackson, the Ravens shuffled through a lot of names at the running back position. There was Justin Forsett and Alex Collins, and those mostly worked. There was also Javorius Allen, and Bernard Pierce, and Terrance West, and Kenneth Dixon … and those didn’t work nearly as well. Might explain why they drafted J.K. Dobbins early.
Oh, and we’re only a couple of years away from Collins popping again somewhere so we can get his cool Irish dancing story one more time (he’s still in the USFL! It’s possible!).
Who you drafted over Forsett and Collins: Well, everyone, because they were undrafted, and don’t you feel silly
Cordarrelle Patterson, Atlanta Falcons (2021)
PPR points: 234.6 (RB9)
ADP: RB89
A lot of people were infatuated with Mike Davis in 2021 after he had had a breakout year handcuffing Christian McCaffrey in Carolina in 2020. I was not one of those people! Of course, my bragging is undercut by the fact that I was on Qadree Ollison (105 yards and 1 touchdown on the season) as the Falcons ball-carrier to target, but oh well. Cordarrelle Patterson had established himself as the best kickoff returner of all time in his various stops around the league (Minnesota, Oakland, New England, Chicago), but he had topped out at 627 scrimmage yards in a season, and that was in 2013. But then in 2021, he exploded with 1,166 scrimmage yards and a career-high 11 scores. And he did it with joint RB/WR eligibility on a lost of host sites, which … I mean, that’s just the best.
Who you drafted over Patterson: Probably everyone, because I refuse to believe anyone actually picked him and kept him, but … Joshua Palmer, Hunter Renfrow (who you might hear from again in this space!), Hayden Hurst
James Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars (2020)
PPR points: 250.4, RB7
ADP: RB67
James Robinson didn’t completely come out of nowhere in 2020 by the time fantasy draft season came along, because the Jags had cut Leonard Fournette and lost Ryquell Armstead to a persistent COVID-19 infection, so someone had to carry the ball for the Jags. But there were rumblings of Devine Ozigbo and Dare Ogunbowale and Chris Thompson, and no one really expected Robinson to do that much. Instead, he had seven top-10 weekly finishes en route to an RB7 finish, and he did that despite missing Weeks 16 and 17. Robinson might be done now, because Achilles tears are absolute beasts to come back from and no one seems to want him, but man that was a nice debut.
Who you drafted over Robinson: Jimmy Graham (last legs), Hunter Renfrow (him again!), Washington defense
Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints (2017)
PPR points: 320.4, RB3
ADP: RB51
This one will always be the subject of one of my favorite what-ifs, because Alvin Kamara opened the 2017 season as the No. 3 in the New Orleans backfield, behind Mark Ingram and Adrian Peterson in some order. But after Peterson struggled to 81 yards on 27 carries through four games, the Saints shipped him to Arizona, and Kamara and Ingram went on to finish as RB3 and RB6 in PPR, respectively, just an electric pairing. But as I’ve always wondered… What if Peterson had broken off just one 20-yard run in the first month? He clearly wasn’t done-done; he put up 1,042 and 898 yards for Washington the next two years. If he had shown even a little, the Saints might have held on to him, changing the futures for Arizona and Washington and delaying the Kamara breakout for who knows how long.
Who you drafted over Kamara: Zay Jones, Samaje Perine, Jamaal Williams (they’re all, you know, kinda good now, but they weren’t then)
Wide Receiver
Hunter Renfrow, Las Vegas Raiders (2021)
PPR points: 259.1, WR10
ADP: WR84
Hunter Renfrow’s success in 2021 is a testament to what a reasonably talented player can do when everyone around him just fails. Darren Waller missed six games. Zay Jones fell flat. Henry Ruggs … well, moving on. Even Josh Jacobs failed to even get to 900 yards. Renfrow was good (1,038 yards, an 82.3 PFF receiving grade), but he didn’t even get to 2.0 yards per route run and had an aDOT under 7.0 yards. Picking the only competent pass-catcher in an otherwise-bad offense probably misses more than it hits, but the hits are what keep the strategy alive.
Who you drafted over Renfrow: Tim Tebow (whoa), Benny Snell, Joshua Palmer
Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers (2016)
PPR points: 246.7 (WR9)
ADP: WR77
When Jordy Nelson tore his ACL in the 2015 preseason, a lot of drafters jumped on Davante Adams as the next “It” guy in Green Bay. He … failed pretty miserably, only putting up 483 yards and a single touchdown. It was James Jones and Randall Cobb who led the way for the Packers pass-catchers that year. So with Nelson back for 2016 and Adams not having shown anything in his first two seasons, everyone jumped again, by jumping ship. (You laugh now, but I bet you did it too.) Adams went on to put up 997 yards (he’s only had fewer once in six years since) and 12 touchdowns (he’s had double-digits in six of seven seasons). And I just realized it as I’m writing this, but he didn’t even make the Pro Bowl that year! Buncha silly voters.
Who you drafted over Adams: Vance McDonald, Robert Kelley (cool name!), Jay Cutler
Odell Beckham, New York Giants (2014)
PPR points: 295.0, WR7
ADP: WR64
It’s easy to forget because of what came next, but after going to the Giants with the 12th overall pick in the 2014 NFL Draft, Odell Beckham didn’t actually come into his rookie season with high fantasy esteem. The Giants had Rueben Randle and Victor Cruz (those names were more impressive then, you’ll just have to trust me). And of course Beckham missed all of training camp and preseason and the first month of the season to a hamstring injury. Easy to see why no one was buying in. But Beckham debuted in Week 5 and, after a relatively slow start (72 yards and a score in his first two games), he exploded — 11 more touchdowns, 1,233 more yards in 10 more games, and of course that absurd catch in prime time that ensured we’d see him forever. And Randle and Cruz (and Jerrel Jernigan, who I had some crazy misguided faith in at the time) were never really heard from again.
Who you drafted over Beckham: Kevin Norwood (who?), Tre Mason, Allen Robinson
Tight End
Robert Tonyan, Green Bay Packers (2020)
PPR points: 176.6, TE4
ADP: TE69
Did you know tight end ADP could go to 69? I did not! Anyway, Robert Tonyan caught 11 touchdowns in 2020. He’s caught a combined 6 in his other four NFL seasons. Touchdowns can be very fluky! On the other hand, he had 59 targets, 52 receptions and 586 yards that year after 21, 14 and 177, respectively, in his first two seasons, so the work spiked as well. Let’s be real — if you had him in 2020, it was a lucky waiver claim after, like, Week 3, and you might not even have started him for his 3-score game in Week 4.
Who you drafted over Tonyan: Alex Smith, Bisi Johnson, Nate Stanley (who?)
Gary Barnidge, Cleveland Browns (2015)
PPR points: 237.3, TE4
ADP: TE40
Gary Barnidge was entering his eighth NFL season in 2015. He was almost 30. He had 603 career yards on 44 career receptions (80 career targets) and 3 career touchdowns. He was a guy who could lay down a block and probably a good teammate. And then out of nowhere, 125 targets, 79 receptions, 1,043 yards, 9 touchdowns. He led the Browns in all of those categories (tied in targets). Sure, a lot of that is because the other best weapons on the team were Travis Benjamin and Isaiah Crowell, but that’s still a nice way to leave a mark.
Barnidge and DeAngelo Williams went on The Amazing Race together a couple years ago. Barnidge was largely vanilla, but Williams gave an all-timer exit speech where he basically said he wouldn’t ever do the race again because he could afford to see the world without doing a bunch of silly challenges. It was funnier than it sounds. That has nothing to do with Barnidge’s status as a good fantasy pick, but it’s a funny story.
Who you drafted over Barnidge: Aaron Dobson, Erik Lorig, John Kuhn (Kuuuuuuuuhn)
Dalton Schultz, Dallas Cowboys (2021)
PPR points: 208.8, TE3
ADP: TE33
We’re often bad at drafting because teams just don’t tell us stuff. Other times, they figure it out as they go. In this instance … I’m not actually sure. Dalton Schultz had been good in 2020, but it was a “Hey, good job filling in, kid” kind of good, with presumptive starter Blake Jarwin hurt. But Jarwin was back for 2021 and still on a big-money contract. No one outside Dallas knew who to count on (Jarwin was TE24 by ADP), and they both played heavy snaps early (57 for Schultz, 48 for Jarwin in Week 1). But after 3 targets a game over the first month, Jarwin hit the bench, and he suffered a career-threatening injury only a couple weeks later. Meanwhile, Schultz had 3 touchdowns before Jarwin was even benched, with 23 targets to Jarwin’s 12. We don’t know if the Cowboys planned on it being the Schultz show or not, but he forced their (and our) hand.
Who you drafted over Schultz: Jordan Akins, John Brown, Giovanni Ricci
