Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
The Cleveland Browns were dealt a blow Wednesday when it was announced that QB Deshaun Watson will miss the rest of the season with surgery to repair a broken bone in his throwing shoulder.
The 28-year-old Watson was in his first full season as the Browns’ starting quarterback. He missed three games and played only 12 snaps in another with injury. In the five games Watson started and completed, the Browns went 4-1 and he had at least 17.2 fantasy points in four of five. His 18.3-point average in those five games would have been 14th among quarterbacks on the season. On the other hand, he’s only managed an 84.3 passer rating on the season and has a 7:4 TD:INT ratio, and he’s only 23rd among quarterbacks in PFF grade.
Deshaun Watson Out for the Year, Fantasy Impact
With Watson out, the Browns will likely turn to P.J. Walker as the starter going forward (rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson did get one start during Watson’s injuries earlier this year, but the team quickly pivoted to Walker). Walker started two games this year and played significant snaps in a third, and the Browns went 2-1 in those games, including a big upset of the 49ers and a shootout win over the Colts. Despite that, Walker only managed 24.8 fantasy points in those three games combined. He’s not a fantasy option outside of the deepest of leagues.
The question, though, is what Walker’s presence means for the Browns’ weapons, primarily No. 1 WR Amari Cooper and TE David Njoku. Per the FTN Fantasy splits tool, In five games with Watson as the full quarterback, Cooper has averaged fewer targets per game (8.3 to 7.8), but more receptions (5.6 to 3.3) and yards (96.0 to 58.8), leading to a much better PPR average (17.6 to 9.1).
For Njoku, the story is different — everything has increased for him with Watson out.
Expect Cooper to see an improvement over his per-game numbers without Watson the rest of the way, just because a team isn’t going to ignore its No. 1 receiver. But in the aggregate, Cooper goes from a mid-range WR2 to a low-end WR2 or flex at best. Meanwhile, with Watson done for the year, Njoku becomes a low-end starter at the tight end position.
As for Watson’s future, he’ll enter the 2024 season a couple weeks shy of his 29th birthday with 12 total games played in the preceding three seasons, with an 81.7 passer rating and 14 touchdowns against 9 interceptions. Even with rushing upside and plenty of raw skills. Watson can’t possibly be drafted as a fantasy starter in 2024.
