Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The New Orleans Saints appear to have their new quarterback, with CBS’ Ian Rapoport reporting Monday morning that they have agreed to a four-year deal with former Raiders QB Derek Carr.
Carr, the 36th overall pick in the 2014 NFL Draft, had spent his entire career with the Raiders, starting 142 of a possible 146 games through his Oakland/Las Vegas tenure, before the team released him last month. He was benched for the last two games of the 2022 season in favor of Jarrett Stidham as the Raiders looked to their future. Carr made four Pro Bowls with the Raiders (2015-2017, 2022) and finished third in the MVP voting in 2016.
For fantasy, Carr has never finished better than QB10 (2016) or worse than QB20 (2014), with two QB17 and two QB13 finishes over his last four years. His 2022 passer rating of 86.3 was his lowest since his 76.6 as a rookie in 2014, and his interception rate of 2.8% was a career high. On the other hand, Carr threw more touchdowns in 15 games this year (24) than he did in 17 games in 2021 (23), in part because of the offseason addition of Davante Adams to the Raiders offense.
Carr will not have anything like Adams in New Orleans, unless 2022 rookie Chris Olave develops further. What he will have is his former head coach (Saints head coach Dennis Allen was Carr’s Raiders coach in 2014) and, in Olave and Rashid Shaheed, a young twosome as his top two pass-catchers, along with RB Alvin Kamara and TEs Juwan Johnson and Taysom Hill. (Michael Thomas is also still under contract in New Orleans, but the chances he’s back with the team in 2023 seem slim.) This is not the Saints weaponry of Drew Brees’ heyday, but pairing that stable of weapons with Carr seems like the best way for the Saints to make it work, given their lack of cap room made an Aaron Rodgers trade hard to envision and their trade-up to draft Olave a year ago cost them this year’s 10th overall pick (their first pick in the 2023 NFL Draft is 29th, courtesy Denver and the Sean Payton trade).
Carr isn’t likely to reach new career heights at age 32 in New Orleans, but he brings a solid floor. He’s a smart fantasy option for a team that wants to take a flyer on a boom/bust option (think Trey Lance), and he’s a very solid second starter in two-QB/superflex leagues.
Meanwhile, Olave popped a few times as a rookie, including two top-10 weekly finishes (Week 3 and Week 11) and seven different weeks as a WR2 or better. Olave was the PPR WR7 in Weeks 3-5, hauling in 17 receptions on 26 targets for 268 yards and 2 scores over those three weeks. Carr’s arrival makes Olave a mid-range WR2 in 2023.
Back in Las Vegas, the question of who starts in 2023 is a big one, though with Carr’s release we already knew that would be the case. The team has been linked to Aaron Rodgers or a veteran free agent like Jimmy Garoppolo, and with the seventh overall pick, the Raiders might draft a rookie or trade up to get one. Whoever lands in Las Vegas will have Adams and veteran TE Darren Waller (and, if the rumors of a franchise tag or long-term deal come to fruition, Josh Jacobs), so it’s a pretty desirable landing spot as far as immediate production goes.
Finally, Carr finding a landing spot takes a quarterback off the board in what is already a small offseason QB carousel. The Jets had been linked to Carr, but with him gone, the team will likely focus hard on Rodgers. If no deal can be reached there, it might be a free agent like Garoppolo or Jacoby Brissett or even the man Carr unseats in New Orleans, Andy Dalton.
