Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Ocean’s Eleven is one of my favorite movies. One of my favorite scenes is when Danny first tells Rusty about his idea to rob the casino(s), he recites this prepared speech.
“’Cause the house always wins. Play long enough, you never change the stakes. The house takes you. Unless, when that perfect hand comes along, you bet big, then you take the house.”
In sports betting, we do not get the perfect hand. Although sometimes, we do get to change the stakes. The sportsbooks want your business. To get it, they are willing to lose a little to you. They do this by offering you deposit bonuses and odds boosts that change the underlying equation from favoring the house to favoring the player. These bonuses will not last forever. While they do, it’s time to bet as big as they let us. As Danny Ocean once said, “then, you take the house.”
Here are the best of the boosts and bonuses I see for this weekend.
DraftKings Sportsbook
If you are making any spread bets in the NFL this weekend, the first $50 of that bet should be at DraftKings. Most spread bets are typically at -110. With the 20% boost DK is offering on the first $50 you bet on every game, it effectively changes that to +109. At -110, the house always wins. At +109, we changed the stakes into our favor. You still need to pick the winners. The difference is instead of winning $0.91 for every dollar wagered, we now win $1.09 when we are right. At -110 you need to pick better than 50% winners to break even. At +109, you can make a profit if you pick the same number of winners and losers. You break even if you pick slightly below 50%. You can shop for the best lines on our odds board to place the rest of your bet above $50. Make sure to max out the $50 boost on DraftKings before you go elsewhere.
PointsBet
PointsBet has a few wagers you should take advantage of this weekend. Some are on Saturday too, so you can roll those winnings over into some NFL Sunday wagers.
Boxing
Anthony Joshua currently holds a couple of the heavyweight belts from a few of the different alphabet organizations that run boxing. We do not currently have a unified champion, but that may end up being the next fight after he knocks out Kubrat Pulev in Wembley Stadium Saturday afternoon. How am I so sure? He’s 23-1 in his career with 21 knockouts. That’s a 91% finish rate. He’s around -300 at some books to win by Knockout and -1000 to win. I’d be shocked if he loses and surprised if he does not knock him out. PointsBet is offering an odds boost up to -200 to win by knockout. It’s by far the best number I have seen.
MLS
On Friday evening they are offering $10 per goal as a bonus to anyone who bets $50 on the moneyline in the MLS game. The over on 2.5 goals is listed at -120, so the implied chance of 3 or more goals is 55% at that number. Both teams are at plus money on the three-way line, so you could profit from a win at better than even money and also get a few bonus dollars out of it.
NFL
PointsBet has a $20 risk-free same-game parlay offer as well. This is basically a free bet. If you win you keep the money you make from the parlay. If you lose, they give you a free $20 bet to make you whole. I like to swing for the fences on these and take some longshot first touchdown play or a guy to score 2 touchdowns. Something with a little more upside than a couple -145 yardage props. Remember it’s a free swing, so try to hit a home run with it.
