Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
We have two incredible NFL matchups this weekend for the Conference Championships. We get the No. 1 seed Baltimore Ravens hosting the No. 3 seed Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship and the No. 1 seed San Francisco 49ers hosting the No. 3 seed Detroit Lions in the NFC title game. These were clearly some of the best teams all season, with all four franchises combining for a gaudy 48-20 (71%) regular-season winning percentage.
Let’s take a look at the most important key to victory in each matchup.
Conference Championship Weekend Keys to Victory
AFC Championship Game
Baltimore Ravens vs. Kansas City Chiefs
3 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS (announcers: Jim Nantz and Tony Romo)
Baltimore -3.5, O/U 44.5
Key to the AFC Championship
Baltimore is the run-heaviest team in the league, currently averaging over 160.6 rushing yards per game. The success of their run game is the bellwether for their success, as shown by our FTN Fantasy Splits Tool. All four of Baltimore’s losses came to three teams: Pittsburgh, Cleveland and Indianapolis. In the five total matchups against those three teams, the Ravens rushing attack massively underperformed compared to their production during wins.
Can Kansas City stop the Ravens rushing attack? The Chiefs defense was a run funnel this year, ranking fifth-best against the pass but only 27th against the run in DVOA. Kansas City was 18th in the league in rushing yards allowed per game (114.9) and was just shredded by Buffalo for 182 rushing yards in last week’s Divisional Round matchup. The Chiefs advanced against the Bills because Buffalo’s defense could not stop the Kansas City offense, which totaled 146 rushing yards and produced a hyper-efficient 131.6 quarterback rating for Patrick Mahomes. The key to this game is whether the Chiefs can make enough defensive adjustments to limit Baltimore’s ground game, while also producing points against a much tougher Ravens defense.
NFC Championship Game
San Francisco 49ers vs. Detroit Lions
6:30 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX (announcers: Kevin Burkhardt and Greg Olsen
Detroit -7, O/U 51.5
Key to the NFC Championship
One of the major keys to this game is the status of San Francisco wide receiver Deebo Samuel. The star wideout is considered “50/50” to play in Sunday’s NFC Championship game. While the 49ers have plenty of other offensive weapons in running back Christian McCaffrey, wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk and tight end George Kittle, the absence (or limitations) of Samuel would hurt San Francisco’s aerial attack against a vulnerable Detroit pass defense. Per John Ewing of BetMGM, Samuel’s absence has certainly affected the 49ers betting success.
The Lions currently rank 16th in pass defense DVOA, a huge dropoff from their No. 1 overall ranking against the run. Detroit also has struggled against individual wide receivers, ranking 23rd in DVOA against opposing WR1s, 20th against opposing WR2s and 22nd against opposing WR3s. In the Divisional Round last week, the Rams continued to find production through the air with wideout Puka Nacua, who roasted the Lions secondary for 181 receiving yards and a touchdown.
The 49ers are facing a Lions defense that has overtaken Houston as the top rushing defense in the league. Detroit ranks first in run defense DVOA, meaning opponents have been 18% less efficient on the ground against the Lions compared to league average. Detroit should be able to contain running back Christian McCaffrey on the ground, making the San Francisco passing attack the key to a 49ers victory.
If San Francisco quarterback Brock Purdy can use Aiyuk and Kittle to mirror the success Matthew Stafford and the Rams had in Detroit last week, the 49ers will almost certainly find their path to Super Bowl LVIII in Las Vegas. If the Lions can improve their pass defense and slow the 49ers, Detroit will have a legitimate chance to win their first conference championship in 67 years.
