Buffalo Bills DVOA, Stats, & NFL Rankings
Team Profile
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20.7% 2ndOff DVOA
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46.6% 2ndPassing DVOA
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7.4% 5thRushing DVOA
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-4.7% 11thDef DVOA
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4.3% 14thDef Passing DVOA
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-16.9% 8thDef Rushing DVOA
2024 Team Stats
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Points For30.9 2nd
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Points Against21.6 10th
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Yards Per Game359.0 10th
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Yards Allowed Per Game342.0 17th
Fresh off his first career touchdown, Ray Davis enters Week 4 as one of the best running back bench stashes across the league. The Bills are committed to a dedicated rushing attack, leaning on James Cook early in games as they build their leads. Davis spells Cook on early downs, while Ty Johnson enters the game on third downs. Consecutive blowouts have boosted Davis' opportunities. He's averaging eight carries per game over the last two contests. In Buffalo's one close game (Week 1), he was handed the rock just three times. Should Cook suffer an injury, Davis would be a plug-and-play option. For now, keep the rookie at the end of fantasy football benches.
Buffalo Bills wide receiver Curtis Samuel was brought to Buffalo to potentially be one of the top passing-game options for Josh Allen. Through three weeks, he's played exactly 27% of snaps in every contest. On the season, Samuel has seven targets and six receptions for 40 yards. He also has one rush for no gain. Khalil Shakir is blossoming in the slot and the Bills like the blocking ability Mack Hollins brings on the outside. Without regular usage in the offense, Samuel isn't considered a good fantasy football option against the Baltimore Ravens. To take it a step further, he doesn't need to be rostered in standard-sized redraft leagues.
Khalil Shakir has emerged as the top wide receiver in the Buffalo offense, so where does that leave Keon Coleman? The rookie caught his first professional touchdown against the Jaguars in Week 3, but that was his only catch of the game. The coaching staff held Coleman out of the first quarter due to showing up late for meetings. Then came a blowout, which brought the rookie back to the bench. Therefore, the route participation number isn't as concerning as it might seem, but there's still a big group clamoring for targets. Despite the plus matchup against the Ravens, Coleman needs to remain on fantasy football benches until he sees a steady, reliable target share.
Buffalo Bills wide receiver Khalil Shakir has yet to miss on any of his 14 targets in 2024 and is cementing his status as the team's go-to option at wide receiver. In Week 4, Shakir draws a Baltimore secondary that is the worst defense against the pass through three games. CeeDee Lamb is the only opposing WR1 who didn't top 100 yards against the Ravens. Rashee Rice and Davante Adams each hit triple digits. While Shakir doesn't go downfield as much, he's set for a safe PPR floor against this shaky secondary. With what projects to be a more competitive game than we've seen from Buffalo in the last couple of weeks, Shakir is at worst a flex in lineups.
Week 4 may be the Dalton Kincaid breakout game fantasy managers have been waiting for. The Buffalo Bills tight end has only registered eight catches for 85 yards and one touchdown through three games. Blowouts took him off the field early in the last two games, but that may not be the case on Sunday night. The Ravens should score enough to keep pace with the Bills. Plus, the Ravens are the best rush defense in the league and have allowed the second-most receptions and yards to tight ends this season. Fire up Kincaid as a TE1 in fantasy football lineups this weekend.