Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
As the mercury rises and we inch closer to training camp openings, our resident fantasy football aficionados, Brad Evans and Derek Brown, profile their favorite Booms, Busts, Breakouts and Bets for every NFL team. Giddy up, gamers. Today’s topic: Indiana’s Show Ponies.
Fantasy Football Booms – Colts
Jonathan Taylor, RB
After a slow start to begin his NFL career, down the stretch, Jonathan Taylor showed the world why the hype megaphone was kicked up to 11 during training camp. In Weeks 11-17, he was the RB3 (24.3, PPR) in fantasy points per game behind only David Montgomery and Derrick Henry. Taylor flashed back-breaking explosive run abilities finishing with the second-most breakaway runs (14) on the season.
One of the biggest questions that Taylor had entering his rookie season was his receiving ability, but as the season rolled on, he answered them as he stole routes from Nyheim Hines. In Weeks 1-10, Taylor ran a route on 40.5% (50%, Hines) of the Colts’ dropbacks. In Weeks 11-18 (excluding Week 12 when he was on the COVID list), his routes per dropback bumped up to 42.6% as he ran more routes than Hines (105 vs. 104). Indianapolis still utilized Hines but more as a slot and outside receiver, with his snaps increasing at those positions from 23.7% to 27.6%. Taylor’s ceiling is the number one running back overall as a Nick Chubb clone with more pass game usage. — Derek Brown
Jonathan Taylor, RB
Good things come to those who wait. Last year, it certainly applied to Taylor loyalists. Eventually freed from the confines of a cumbersome RBBC with Nyheim Hines and Jordan Wilkins, the then-rookie blossomed into a box score behemoth. From Week 11 on, the former Badger blasted through would-be tackles with maximum ferocity. Only Derrick Henry and David Montgomery outperformed him as he tallied 837 total yards with eight TDs. His 3.75 YAC per attempt and 33 missed tackles forced over the six-game stretch cast him a fantasy football playoff hero.
Unbelievably, Taylor naysayers still roam the earth. Weaving conspiracy tales even Newsmax anchors would find absurd, they doubt the sophomore rusher will deliver a positive return on his Round 1 valuation. Horsecrap. Behind a likely top-five offensive line and with Carson Wentz in tow, Taylor isn’t suddenly going to revert to the 12-14 touch per game RB from early 2020. Let the objectors believe Marlon Mack is a threat. When the dust settles on the 2021 fantasy season, the rusher could be in the RB1 of RB1s conversation. That’s how high his ceiling is. — Brad Evans
2021 Fantasy Football Busts – Colts
T.Y. Hilton, WR
The erosive effects of Father Time impact us all. Undefeated in the slow deterioration of player skills, the menace, once again, is taking down a once dependable name — Hilton.
Entering his Age 32 season, Hilton is nothing more than bench fodder. His ADP has plummeted to an affordable level (WR56, 138.9), but nagging injuries and competition for targets from younger, more spry wideouts has this scribe circumventing. His advanced analytics profile also tells a damning story. Last season over 15 games, he finished No. 50 or lower in yards per target, yards per route run, target separation and contested catch rate. His 30.8 red-zone target percentage (WR23) was nothing to scoff at, however, Pittman, Campbell and Indy’s TE menagerie are sure to eat into his workload. In the end, a similar line as last year (56-762-5) is a distinct possibility. — Brad Evans
T.Y. Hilton, WR
The laundry list of soft tissue injuries over the last two seasons for T.Y. Hilton has piled up and sapped the diminutive speedster’s afterburners. Since 2019, Hilton has dealt with quadriceps, hamstring and groin strains, and a calf tear. Last year, Hilton ranked 70th in passer rating when targeted (90.9) and 54th in fantasy points per route run (0.38).
His late-season torrid stretch that’s given some hope was fueled by a perfect storm of soft passing defenses and outlandish touchdown efficiency. In those final six weeks, Hilton faced five defenses (HOU twice, LVR, TEN, and JAX) that ranked 26th or lower in pass defense DVOA. Hilton scored all five of his receiving touchdowns last year in this same stretch. Don’t chase last year’s fantasy points with a declining player.— Derek Brown
Fantasy Football Breakouts for the Colts
Parris Campbell, WR
Prior to Parris Campbell‘s inaugural season in Indy, while opening an umbrella and crossing paths with Jim Irsay’s feline, he shattered a workout facility mirror, or so his abysmal and unlucky injury history would lead us to believe. In his two years of NFL service, he’s sprained his MCL and PCL, sustained a concussion, fractured a foot and a hand, and suffered an abdominal strain.
With this myriad of injuries, he’s only logged four games in which he’s played 49% of the snaps or more. In that small sample window, we’ve seen a player who’s been highly utilized. In those contests, Campbell has garnered single game target shares of 20%, 17.3%, 16.1% and 13.8%. Simply put, when he’s been able to take the field, Frank Reich and company have made it a point to get the ball in his hands. Health provided Campbell will assume the full-time slot role this year. His 6-foot, 205-pound frame and 97th percentile speed and burst scores against off coverage are still tantalizing in the later rounds of drafts. The Colts attempting to rehab Carson Wentz‘s psyche and confidence should scheme up easy completions to Campbell screaming across the middle of the field. His WR68 (158.0 Overall) ADP is baking in all of the injury risks, but none of his sky-high ceiling. — Derek Brown
Michael Pittman, WR
Without a doubt, the second-year wideout is a fixture on my must-have list. He possesses the size, leaping ability, ball tracking and field-stretching talents to become Wentz’s primary weapon of choice. Only sporadically did he flash those skills as a rookie, as he finished No. 104 in fantasy points per touch and well down the ladder in other key categories. Still, as efforts against Tennessee and Green Bay showed, he’s more than capable of developing into a reliable WR3 or better.
Wentz is somewhat of a wildcard. Staying healthy is paramount, but the scenery change could resurface the top-10 QB from 2017. As discussed above, the setup is attractive, especially the robust offensive line. Establish an early rapport with Pittman in camp and the sophomore could approach 60-65 receptions, 1,000 yards and 5-7 TDs. Final word, he’s a superb bench buy in the middle of your draft (ADP: 97.3, WR44). — Brad Evans
Best Bets for the Colts 2021
(Use the FTN Prop Shop to uncover the best lines across legal sportsbooks)
Indianapolis to Win the AFC South (+100, William Hill)
With improvements on both sides of the ball this offseason and a schedule featuring seven opponents with projected win totals of 8.0 or lower, the Colts could have a cakewalk to the AFC South’s top spot. — Derek Brown
Indianapolis UNDER 10 wins (-130, William Hill)
According to Mike Clay’s projections, the Colts feature the 15th-easiest schedule. They’re balanced, but Tennessee is a stiff challenger, and Jacksonville is on the rise, suggesting 10 wins is a little rich. — Brad Evans
