Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
As the mercury rises and we inch closer to training camp openings, our resident fantasy football aficionados, Brad Evans and Derek Brown, profile their favorite Booms, Busts, Breakouts and Bets for every NFL team. Giddy up, gamers. Today’s topic: The Bills Mafia.
Fantasy Football Booms – Bills
Stefon Diggs, WR
Entering the 2020 season, Stefon Diggs‘ outlook in the land of wings and wrecked folding tables looked like the same old story but new area code. Diggs had long been an efficiency monster trapped inside the Minnesota Vikings’ run-heavy attack. In 2019 Diggs ranked second among all wide receivers with 25 or more targets in yards per route run (2.69) behind only Michael Thomas. Buffalo’s projected passing volume resembled a muscle-bound boa constrictor ready to strangle the life from his fantasy ceiling.
But Brian Daboll and company had other plans. The Bills morphed into a pass-centric offense ranking third in neutral script passing rate (63%). With Daboll still at the helm, Diggs will lead an aerial attack that will challenge for the league lead in passing attempts.
Despite Diggs finishing with eight receiving touchdowns last season, he could surpass that mark this year. In 2020 Diggs rolled up 50% of his red-zone targets (eight) in Weeks 12-17. If this high usage inside the 20 continues for a full 17 games, he could rival Davante Adams for most end zone dance parties. — Derek Brown
Josh Allen, QB
Once the butt of draft day jokes, Josh Allen has morphed into a monster, defying this balding blatherskite’s misguided doubts. Whether hurdling oncoming LBs in the open field or delivering strikes to inseparable top weapon Stefon Diggs, the former No. 7 overall pick has delivered on all accounts, and then some.
His evolution as a passer is nothing short of miraculous. Panned early in his career for his inability to even hit the Jolly Green Giant on a simple button hook, he polished off a breakout 2020 by finishing QB6 in adjusted completion percentage, QB8 in catchable pass rate and QB9 in deep-ball completion percentage. His vertical metamorphosis combined with his still devastating chalk crossing inside-the-5 power (8 rush TDs in ‘20) are why he’s one of the virtual game’s finest dual threats. Another 40-plus combined scores are attainable.
After Patrick Mahomes falls off the board, Allen is the next best option available about a round later (QB2, 47.85 ADP). — Brad Evans
2021 Fantasy Football Busts – Bills
Zack Moss, RB
Lampooned by several draftniks and subsequent fantasy zombies for his pedestrian 4.65 40-yard wheels, Zack Moss proved sporadically useful working in tandem with Devin Singletary over his rookie campaign. He outpaced the tag-team partner in red zone work and his secondary analytics were respectable (2.90 YAC/att; 18.7% missed tackle rate), but Buffalo’s air-centric attack greatly handicapped his numbers. Allen’s end-zone plows and his minimized role as a pass catch also did him no favors. As a result, he finished RB53 in fantasy points per game — Kalen Ballage territory. Unless achieving supreme mediocrity is your personal goal, no RB should aspire to rank alongside the baron of blandness.
In early drafts, optimism is strangely high for the now sophomore rusher. Best ball ADP data has Moss going some 30-35 picks higher compared to Singletary. Bizarre.
Yes, Buffalo didn’t nab Travis Etienne or another primo rookie RB in the draft, but what has really changed from last year? Absolutely nothing. You’re overpaying for him at RB37 (103.0 overall). — Brad Evans
Zack Moss, RB
Chasing Zack Moss in fantasy drafts is like tossing coins in a wishing well for a ceiling dream that will never come. Moss is flanked by roadblocks to fantasy upside in the red zone (Josh Allen) and the passing game (Devin Singletary).
After returning from a toe injury that cost him three games, Moss saw 21 opportunities near paydirt versus the combined 29 red-zone touches for Singletary and Allen. In Weeks 6-17, Singletary was the Bills’ preferred passing-down back running routes on 45.7% of Allen’s dropbacks (Moss, 31.8%) with a 7% target share (Moss, 4%).
If we close our eyes and try like truthers to will it all away, this reality has already been seen. Last season during Moss’s absence, Singletary was only the RB28 (13.0) in fantasy points per game. Even if you’re a zero-RB zealot, there are better backs to place your mid to late-round bets on. — Derek Brown
Fantasy Football Breakouts for the Bills
Gabriel Davis, WR
Gabriel Davis shined in his rookie season, filling a variety of roles for the Bills. When John Brown missed time, Davis ran routes on the outside opposite Diggs, and when Cole Beasley was banged up, he operated out of the slot. Regardless of his alignment, Davis had no issues getting open, ranking 13th in target separation (2.07) among all wideouts.
Last year he was Josh Allen’s preferred downfield threat leading the team in deep targets (20). Thanks to a combination of route-running chops and toe drag swag, he led the team in deep yards per route run (16.9).
The elderly duo of Beasley (32) and Emmanuel Sanders (34) are holding Davis’ ADP in check. On a team that ran the second-most four-receiver sets in the NFL, he shouldn’t have any issues finding the field. Davis could be set to skyrocket in his sophomore season. — Derek Brown
Gabriel Davis, WR
With John Brown now sloughing it in the city of steady peak inebriation (Las Vegas), the door is wide open for Gabriel Davis to take a quantum leap forward. He isn’t outracing DK Metcalf in a straight-line footrace, but his deceptive moves and ability to separate displayed last season should garner your attention. According to the FTN Fantasy air yards tool, his 15.24-yard aDOT ranked No. 6 among wideouts with at least 50 targets. His 17.1 yards per catch also slid inside the position’s top-10.
Diggs will continue his boss hog ways, but Davis’ 10.7% target share is bound to climb. Assuming that happens and his 42.4% red zone percentage (26 targets) sustains, he could easily transform into a near weekly WR3 play in 12-team leagues. Keep in mind he tallied 2.21 fantasy points per target in his rookie campaign, the 11th-best mark among WRs. Sporting a WR60 (150.7 ADP) price tag, he’s one of the finest late-round Rip Van Winkles in fantasy. — Brad Evans
Best Bets for the Bills 2021
(Use the FTN Prop Shop to uncover the best lines across legal sportsbooks)
Josh Allen to win NFL MVP (+1100, DraftKings)
A quarterback has taken home the MVP award in each of the last 14 years, so Josh Allen takes home the hardware this year after finishing second in MVP voting in 2020. — Derek Brown
Bills to win AFC East (-150, DraftKings)
Miami and New York are heading in the right direction and New England should improve vastly from last year’s gigantic backward step, but Buffalo is the class of this division. Shoot the juice. Make cash. — Brad Evans
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