Booms, Busts and Breakouts: Miami Dolphins

As the mercury rises and we inch closer to training camp opens, our resident fantasy football aficionados, Brad Evans and Jeff Ratcliffe, profile their favorite booms, busts and breakouts for every NFL team. Today’s topic: The Fightin’ Fish. 

Booms

Mike Gesicki, TE

After doing a whole lot of nothing over his first season and a half in the league, Gesicki exploded down the stretch last year, posting five top-10 weekly finishes over his final nine games. During that stretch, he scored all five of his touchdowns. That number matched the amount of scores Travis Kelce and George Kittle notched over that span.

If you like your tight ends to block, Gesicki is not your guy. Last season, he spent just 18% of his snaps in-line. And that rate could be even lower with Miami expected to run a ton of 4-wide sets under new OC Chan Gailey. Gesicki is essentially a wideout, so he’ll have no problem getting his this year. He’s arguably the highest-ceiling late-round tight end in 2020 fantasy drafts. — Jeff Ratcliffe

DeVante Parker, WR

It only took the former Round 1 pick five years, or the approximate time it takes pandas to procreate, to live up to his immense promise. The merciless wait, however, was totally worth it. 

Benefiting from Preston Williams’ lineup absence over the season’s second half, Parker ignited as the weapon of choice for Ryan Fitzpatrick. Over Miami’s final 10 games, Michael Thomas was the only wide receiver to outpace Parker in total fantasy production. During that span he registered 54 receptions for 918 yards and six touchdowns. Finishing inside the top-10 in overall output, he ranked No. 8 in contested catch percentage and No. 12 in average depth of target (14.7 yards), proving his effectiveness as an across-the-middle dirty worker and deep threat.

Entering fantasy draft season, most believe he’s the Skee-Lo of wide receivers, a one-hit wonder. Williams, who commanded 40.7% of Miami’s red-zone in eight games, was comically inefficient in multiple areas. Targeted 24 times inside the 20 he scored just three times. Also near the basement in YAC per receptions (2.22), he’s not the threat to Parker some individuals portray. 

Due to Miami’s improved defense and eventual changeover at QB, Parker’s odds of matching 2019 aren’t the strongest, but a WR2 finish in the range of 65-1,050-7 is achievable. Investing in his services at his WR3 price point (WR25, 60.7 ADP) is an encouraged move. — Brad Evans

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Busts

Jordan Howard, RB

Following a rock-solid start to his professional career where he recorded back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons, Howard started to dip in efficiency in 2018. He was then sent to Philadelphia where the wheels completely came off last year. Howard managed to suit up for nine games, but only posted one top-10 fantasy finish.

By midseason, it was clear that he couldn’t even hold Miles Sanders’ jock, though the official narrative was that he suffered a shoulder injury. Regardless, the Eagles let Howard walk, and he landed with the Dolphins, who showed their confidence in him by trading for Matt Breida. So yeah, you could say that I’m not very bullish on Howard entering 2020. — Jeff Ratcliffe

Preston Williams, WR

The fascination some have with Williams is strange. At 6-foot-4, he’s a long drink, but ranking in the 47th percentile or lower in several measurements including speed, burst and agility scores, he’s not exactly a standout talent. There’s a reason why he went undrafted. 

Before an ACL tear cost him his season, Williams had his moments. On 59 targets he hauled in 32 receptions for 428 yards and three touchdowns. His 14.6-yard average depth of target and prominent red-zone role certainly command attention. However, doubling down on the statements applied to Parker above, he suffered greatly in key analytics, most notably red-zone catch percentage and YAC per reception. 

Bottom line, Parker and Mike Gisecki are bound to be the primary focuses in Chan Gailey’s offense. Yes, the OC’s scheme is predicated on spreading out opponents, but Williams’ glaring inconsistencies suggest he’s fantasy pyrite in the later rounds. Justin Jefferson, Breshad Perriman and Golden Tate are better targets around the ‘Fins’ 135.9 ADP. — Brad Evans

Breakouts

Preston Williams, WR

Relatively unheralded heading into last season, Williams flashed impressive upside as a downfield threat for the Dolphins over the first nine weeks of the season before tearing his ACL. With Williams on injured reserve, DeVante Parker ended up emerging down the stretch. However, over those first nine weeks Williams actually out-targeted Parker 59-48 and had four more catches.

That’s not to say that we should expect Williams to outproduce Parker in 2020, but he does offer better fantasy value with an ADP of roughly six rounds later than Parker. The Dolphins quarterback situation should also be considered here, as we’ll likely see Ryan Fitzpatrick to start the season with Tua Tagovailoa likely to take over at some point. Regardless, Williams is worth a dart in the late rounds as an upside option with the potential to provide a nice return on investment. — Jeff Ratcliffe

Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB

An honorable mention on the Rodney Dangerfield All-Stars list, Fitzpatrick is a player written off annually who almost always overachieves. It’s why he, as a seventh-round pick, has seemingly suited up for almost every team in the NFL, XFL, AAF and NFL Europe. In terms of miles traveled, the dude earned platinum status eons ago.

Tua Tagovailoa is waiting patiently in the wings, but the rookie, off a gnarly hip injury, will be brought along slowly. It’s within the realm of outcomes he’s coddled, a medical redshirt year. Even if he isn’t, I’m confident Fitzpatrick starts at least 8-10 games, potentially yielding top-15 numbers in the process. 

Recall over his final nine games from 2019, the Dumbledore of QBs waved a magic wand. Over that span he ranked No. 3 in total fantasy output, trailing only Lamar Jackson and Jameis Winston. During that fiery phase he averaged a blistering 291.3 pass yards per game, 21.6 rush yards per game and totaled 17 touchdowns (3 rushing). Also respectable in adjusted completion percentage (75.1%) and average depth of target (9.2), Miami’s wizard made fantasy box score deficits disappear. 

His leash will be short, but at the helm of an upgraded team, particularly along the offensive line, Fitzpatrick and his beautiful bushy beard is sure to envelope franchises with appreciable points. — Brad Evans