Booms, Busts and Breakouts: Indianapolis Colts

As the mercury rises and we inch closer to training camp opens, our resident fantasy football aficionados, Brad Evans and Jeff Ratcliffe, profile their favorite booms, busts and breakouts for every NFL team. Today’s topic: Frank Reich’s Ponies.

Booms

Jonathan Taylor, RB

Prolific at the college level, Taylor is one of just three players in NCAA history to top 2,000 rushing yards in a single season twice – and he nearly did it a third time. Let that one sink in. He also flashed impressive athleticism in the pre-draft process, punctuated by a blazing fast 4.39 40-yard dash time at the combine. So it isn’t hard to see what the Colts liked in Taylor.

As far as landing spots go, this isn’t necessarily the best one for the Wisconsin product. And it might not be for the reason you think. Sure, Marlon Mack is already in house, but Taylor is the superior early-down option. It’s not a matter of it, but when he takes over for Mack as the lead back.

The problem here is actually Nyheim Hines. There was some question about Taylor’s ability in the passing game heading into the draft, and while I think the jury is still out there, Hines’ presence will really prevent Taylor from being a true three-down back. However, he can still be a very effective fantasy option in more of a two-down role if he’s able to see volume.

The Colts fed Mack a healthy 247 carries last season. I don’t think we see Taylor getting all of that work right out of the gate, but the rookie is going to see that volume shift in his favor as the season goes on. With the Colts impressive offensive line clearing the way, Taylor is poised for a strong rookie season, especially as we get into November and December. — Jeff Ratcliffe

T.Y. Hilton, WR

Last season, Hilton was more of a seedy, don’t-break-out-the-blacklight Red Roof Inn when it came to fantasy production. His unexciting 69-501-5 output, which landed him at WR57 in 0.5-PPR formats, and WR43 finish in fantasy points per target stained his overall reputation. Though he exhibited a warrior mentality fighting through injuries, he simply wasn’t the same dependable WR2 fantasy gamers were accustomed to. 

HIlton’s physical ailments were mostly responsible for the downturn, but Jacoby Brissett also deserves a finger point. After starting off at a respectable level, the passer tailed off dramatically as the season carried on. He finished QB23 in adjusted completion percentage, routinely misconnecting and misfiring on his throws. Philip Rivers, who ranked QB13 in adjusted completion percentage with the Chargers last season, should greatly enhance Hilton’s WR46 ranking in catchable target rate from 2019. 

Will he return to a top-15 level? It’s unlikely due to the conservative nature of Reich’s scheme. However, fixed as the top option, Hilton should turn a tidy profit at his WR3 price point (WR27, 64.1 ADP). — Brad Evans

Busts

T.Y. Hilton, WR

What a difference a quarterback makes. With Andrew Luck, Hilton was positioned for another run at WR1 numbers last season. But following Luck’s surprise retirement, Hilton generally struggled to produce consistent numbers with Jacoby Brissett under center while also battled injuries for a good chunk of the season.

The Colts did address their quarterback issues with the offseason addition of Philip Rivers, but that won’t help Hilton on the injury front. Hilton is one of those players who got sneaky old very quickly. Now north of 30, he’s far from a lock to play all 16 games. While you won’t necessarily have to pay a premium for Hilton, he still has name brand recognition. That may cause him to go higher than he should, especially in casual home leagues. — Jeff Ratcliffe

Jonathan Taylor, RB

Shiny New Toy Syndrome is an affliction every fantasy player, whether novice or experienced, has suffered from. It’s most common symptom is buying into irrational projections which invariably leads to overreaching for an unproven player early in drafts. This year, Clyde Edwards-Helaire is a prime example, but Taylor is very much in the conversation. 

No doubt, the former Badger is a wonderful talent. His mixture of size, speed and dependability are why most scouts ranked him atop their RB boards. His toughness between the tackles, eagle vision and second-level juice are attractive qualities. Last season among FBS backs, he ranked No. 3 in total yards after contact, No. 3 in total missed tackles and tallied the second-most carries of 15-plus yards. The kid owns all the tools to be an All-Pro caliber rusher for years to come. 

Extinguishing the hype, Taylor is, as Reich has hinted at this offseason, part of a full-blown RBBC. As Zak Keefer from The Athletic discussed in June, positive gamescripts are likely to feature Marlon Mack in a lead role. With Nyheim Hines also involved and given Taylor’s just average receiving/blocking abilities, the rookie could net only 11-13 touches per game. Indy’s offensive line is stellar, but Taylor will likely need to benefit from a Mack injury for him to deliver on his 33.0 (RB18) ADP. — Brad Evans

Breakouts

Parris Campbell, WR

The speedster out of Ohio State didn’t get much run in his rookie season, as abdominal and hand injuries sidelined him for much of the season and he ended the year on injured reserve with a foot issue. That laundry list of ailments doesn’t instill much confidence, but Campbell is reportedly fully healthy, and is slated to be the Colts primary slot receiver.

While there’s a lot to like about Campbell’s game-breaking ability, he’ll likely enter the season well down on the target pecking order with T.Y. Hilton, Jack Doyle and rookie Michael Pittman Jr. all ahead of him. That said, Hilton’s health woes could open the door for a larger role for Campbell. The good news is you can essentially get him for free at the end of drafts. His implied upside is well worth a dart in the final rounds of your fantasy drafts. — Jeff Ratcliffe

Michael Pittman, WR

Featured on this year’s All-ManCrush Team, the USC product’s starting role as the ‘X’ receiver is practically cemented. At 6-foot-4, 223 pounds and blessed with 4.58 40-yard speed, he’s a big-bodied target with strong and reliable hands. Last year with the Trojans he amassed a 101-1,275-11 line, displaying the fantastic high-point and contested-catch skills needed to win battles at the pro level. 

Pittman, in myriad ways, is Rivers’ new Mike Williams or Vincent Jackson, a field-stretching, tough-to-tackle wideout who is sure to give diminutive DBs fits. At a minimum, he’ll command the 5.1 targets per game Zach Pascal attracted last season.

Available well into the triple digits in average drafts (153.8 ADP, WR60), he’s a viable ROY candidate (40/1 odds at DraftKings) capable of 60-plus receptions, 850-950 yards with 5-7 TDs. Remember thy name. — Brad Evans