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Bet these Carson Wentz betting props

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The Indianapolis Colts traded a 2021 third-rounder and a conditional 2022 second-rounder for Carson Wentz this offseason. Wentz — once an MVP candidate — struggled mightily in 2020 for the Eagles, but the Colts and Frank Reich believe they can turn him around. Last season, the Colts were led by Philip Rivers — who managed to get them to the playoffs where they lost to the Buffalo Bills — but after his retirement the Colts pushed all their chips in on Wentz. 

The Colts took a chance on Wentz. The cost was low, the upside was high, and they weren’t going to find a better solution where they were selecting in the draft. That said, the bottom can drop out on Wentz, who completed just 57.4% of his passes last season with 16 touchdowns and 15 interceptions.

Let’s focus on the interceptions, because that is where the most value in the betting market is. The first thing we need to address is the randomness that is turnovers. The sheer number of interceptions one year does not mean a player is going to have that many interceptions the next. After three straight seasons of just seven interceptions, Wentz threw 15 in 2020. What is much more telling is that Wentz led all of football with 29 interceptable passes, six more than second-most Ben Roethlisberger … and that was despite Wentz having 170 fewer pass attempts than Big Ben.

Let’s look at the bets.

Carson Wentz to continue his turnover issues

Over 10.5 interceptions (-140, DraftKings Sportsbook)

As mentioned above, Wentz is coming off leading the league in interceptable passes — 6.6% of his pass attempts had a chance of being intercepted. Wentz only played 12 games last season; if he had managed to play the whole season, that interceptable pass total (29) would have been significantly higher. The Colts and Eagles run similar pace and have similar pass attempts per game, so even though he will be on a better roster, low volume isn’t going to protect him from making poor decisions. In a 17-game season, if Wentz stays healthy I expect him to throw double-digit interceptions easily.

Carson Wentz long shot betting value

Leads league in interceptions (+2500, Draftkings Sportsbook)

Coming off a season where Wentz led the league in interceptable passes, we get incredible value at +2500. Players listed ahead of him are young players and some of the worst quarterbacks in some of the worst situations in football. Last year, 5.4% of Sam Darnold’s pass attempts were interceptable, 1.2 percentage points lower than Wentz. Darnold currently sits at just +750 to lead the league in interceptions despite a major talent upgrade around him. Ryan Fitzpatrick had an interceptable pass attempt rate of 5.9% because he has a gunslinger mentality. That mentality has him sitting at +750 as the co-favorite with Darnold, and once again, Wentz had a higher interceptable pass rate. The value in this number is too good to pass on.

(Get all my NFL betting picks here)

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