Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The NFL offseason never disappoints.
We’ve seen heated contract talks, big-name free agent signings and huge trades that promise to make an impact (good or bad) on the NFL landscape.
Training camps are less than two months away, so let’s take a look at the best offseason moves for fantasy football in 2024.
Best Offseason Moves for Fantasy Football
Derrick Henry to the Baltimore Ravens
A future Hall-of-Fame running back joined the run-heaviest team in the NFL last year. Per FTN Fantasy, the Ravens led the league with almost 32 rush attempts per game, including over 33 rushing attempts in road matchups. Per FTN Charting Data, Henry led all running backs in rushing attempts (280) and ranked second in rushing yards (1,167) and first downs (63). The volume was sustained despite his age (30), and now he moves to a team that ranked first overall in rushing DVOA.
Taking an even closer look at our FTN data, only 30 of Henry’s rushing attempts occurred while Tennessee was trailing by at least one score. He should certainly see an increase in those opportunities by joining Baltimore, providing an even greater opportunity to generate fantasy points. Head coach John Harbaugh already started hinting at a massive workload for Henry.
Baltimore also ranked second in team red-zone rushing attempts with 3.9 average attempts per week. Henry should see a majority of carries early in the season as Keaton Mitchell recovers from a torn ACL in Week 15. That leaves Henry, Justice Hill and fifth-round rookie Rasheen Ali as the only key rushing options on the roster. One of the most prolific running backs in NFL history switching to the most-run heavy rushing attack in the NFL is an obvious offseason win.
Russell Wilson/Justin Fields to the Pittsburgh Steelers
It is incredible the Steelers finished 10-7 and made the playoffs despite horrific quarterback play. Kenny Pickett fooled all fantasy drafters by passing for just six touchdowns in 324 attempts despite a very promising preseason. Among passers with at least 300 attempts, Pickett ranked 24th in passer rating and 26th in completion percentage.
Pittsburgh added veteran Russell Wilson and dynamic dual-threat signal caller Justin Fields to its roster, giving the Steelers experience and versatility. Wilson finished with a respectable 29 total touchdowns and just eight interceptions despite operating in an inconsistent Denver offense. Fields is one of the best rushing quarterbacks in the league, posting 9.5 carries per game and 50.5 rushing yards per game, per FTN Charting Data. The improved play under center will certainly help a Pittsburgh offense that ranked just 15th in offensive DVOA and 25th in overall offensive yards per game.
George Pickens ranked 25th out of 35 wide receivers with 100 targets in catchable target rate. Pittsburgh’s leading wideout had only 68.9% of his targets rated as catchable. While his average yards per target (10.8) ranks among the highest in the league, he now has one of the most accurate deep-ball passers under center in Wilson.
Fields’ rushing ability should also help create opportunities for a ground game that is critical to Pittsburgh’s late-season success in cold weather games. The trio of Najee Harris, Jaylen Warren and Cordarrelle Patterson should see wide running lanes and explosive opportunities when Fields is under center.
Any quarterback change would have been an improvement for the Steelers, but the skill sets of Wilson and Fields complement each other perfectly.
Marquise Brown to the Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs love speed. Patrick Mahomes loves speed. Marquise Brown has speed.
Kansas City signed the former Arizona wideout to a one-year “prove it” deal that could reach $11 million. Despite their back-to-back Super Bowl championships, Brown should provide the Chiefs with a real combination of speed and receiving production they have not enjoyed since Tyreek Hill.
Brown has produced good but not great numbers during his five NFL seasons. But he has dealt with a myriad of quarterbacks with both the Ravens and Cardinals due to various injuries. If you isolate his numbers with only Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray, he has seen huge percentage increases across the board.
Using our FTN Splits Tool, I isolated his production in 12 games with Murray and 43 games with Jackson.
In those games, Brown has averaged 13 PPR fantasy points per game. He is now paired with the elite quarterback of the last six seasons in Mahomes.
All signs point to 2024 as the best season of Brown’s career, yet his ADP is only WR33 on UnderdogFantasy. Not only is Brown to Kansas City one of the best fantasy moves of the offseason, it is likely the best move of Brown’s entire career.
Kirk Cousins signs with the Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons finally have a franchise quarterback.
Or two.
Despite a head-scratching selection of Michael Penix Jr. with the eighth overall pick in this year’s draft, there is no denying that Kirk Cousins gives Atlanta its most talented signal-caller since Matt Ryan.
Cousins is an exceptionally accurate passer, posting at least 7.1 yards per attempt for the past 10 seasons. He has thrown for 29 or more touchdown passes in four of the last six seasons and would have certainly broken that mark last year if not for a torn Achilles in Week 8. The Falcons have not seen that level of passing touchdown production since the 2018 season (Ryan, 35).
Cousins’ arrival certainly improves the fantasy projection for leading wideout Drake London. The second-year wideout had a miserable 2023 season, finishing as the PPR WR42 despite ranking 23rd in air yards. London battled brutal quarterback play all season from Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke.
This should also (in theory) be a boost for the enigmatic tight end, Kyle Pitts. The former fourth-overall pick has failed to impress in his three seasons, averaging just 49.6 receptions with six receiving touchdowns. Atlanta added significant receiving speed with Darnell Mooney and Rondale Moore to supplement the versatility of star running back Bijan Robinson. The arrival of Cousins gives the Falcons fantasy upside The Big Peach hasn’t seen in years.
Saquon Barkley signs with the Philadelphia Eagles
Well, Nick Sirianni certainly seems excited about signing former Giants running back Saquon Barkley.
Barkley now gets to run behind one of the NFL’s best offensive lines, even with the retirement of center Jason Kelce. Last year’s leading RB, D’Andre Swift, finished fifth overall in rushing yards, and started the season with consecutive rushing totals of 175 and 130 yards in Weeks 2 and 3. Barkley has now changed from a Giants rushing attack that ranked 29th in DVOA to an Eagles ground game that finished fifth in the same metric.
Still one of the elite running backs in today’s game, Barkley has grinded out 10 touchdowns in each of the past two seasons and 41 or more receptions in the last three campaigns. My favorite stat? Per FTN Charting Data, Barkley averaged just 1.6 yards before contact in 2023, while Swift enjoyed 2.8 yards before contact (third-best among all running backs). Barkley may have the best season of his career in Philadelphia.
