Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The week after Super Bowl LVIII is the official end of the 2023 NFL season, but it also signals the start of 2024 best ball drafting!
Underdog Fantasy immediately posted two 2024 Pre-Draft Best Ball contests: The Big Board and The Little Board. Both are the standard best ball format with 20 players on each team selected by 12 drafters. Each team starts one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, one tight end and one flex player per week. Each reception counts as 0.5 points, each passing touchdown is four points, while rushing and receiving touchdowns are at six points. Scoring counts through the first 14 weeks, with weeks 15-17 serving as the playoffs.
There are so many unknown variables that make drafting this early a challenge. We don’t know the destinations for the rookies in the upcoming NFL draft, nor free agents, and we also do not know the schedules for the 2024 season. However, the unknown also brings opportunity. If we draft correctly, there is incredible value throughout the draft, providing the savvy best ball player a chance for a huge advantage.
Let’s take a look at what I’ve learned through the first week of drafting at Underdog Fantasy.
Recency Bias is Strong
The early drafts have been greatly influenced by recency bias, both positively and negatively. There is no greater example than Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua, who carries a 9.2 overall ADP, and is consistently selected in the first round. Teammate Kyren Williams follows Nacau’s lead, bringing an ADP just outside Round 1 (12.9). Other players being drafted much higher than last season include:
- De’Von Achane (ADP 17.3, RB7)
- Sam LaPorta (ADP 29.2, TE1)
- Isiah Pacheco (ADP 37.9, RB10)
- James Cook (ADP 44.2, RB12)
Drafters are also overvaluing a poor 2023 season, plummeting the ADP of certain players from last year. The best example exists at quarterback, where Jacksonville’s Trevor Lawrence is now available at an ADP of 109.8, going as the QB15. Last season, Lawrence was considered a potential breakout candidate, often being drafted inside the top 10 signal-callers. Other players who have seen a huge drop in ADP include:
- Daniel Jones (ADP 174.4, QB26)
- Najee Harris (ADP 84.5, RB26)
- Dameon Pierce (ADP 187.9, RB57)
- Alexander Mattison (ADP 220.9, RB68)
- Calvin Ridley (ADP 58.1, WR34)
- Jerry Jeudy (ADP 128.3, WR57)
Injury Arbitrage
Drafters have already started to plant their flag on which injuries matter and which ones should be ignored. It’s always a challenge to assess how players will return from injury, but if you are willing to take a risk where others are not, the reward can be huge in best ball drafts.
The biggest injury question mark surrounds Cleveland running back Nick Chubb, who underwent two separate knee surgeries after a gruesome injury in September. Chubb is expected to return during the 2024 season, but the exact month is unknown. Drafters had taken a moderate stance on Chubb, drafting him as the RB19 with a current ADP of 69.9.
The Ravens have two of the biggest injury question marks, both at the running back position. No player has frustrated fantasy drafters more than J.K. Dobbins, who experienced an ACL tear in the 2022 preseason followed by an Achilles tear in Week 1 last season. Will Dobbins be in Baltimore in 2024, and will he assume the lead running back role he held prior to his injury? The other variable is teammate Keaton Mitchell, a 2023 undrafted free agent from East Carolina. Mitchell made a strong impact on the Ravens running game, tallying 62 or more total yards in five of his six games prior to tearing his ACL in late-December. He is expected to return in October at the earliest. This backfield is critical to fantasy drafters, as the Ravens led all teams with 156.7 rushing yards per game in 2023.
Drafters have essentially given up on Dobbins, allocating a microscopic 183.6 ADP at RB55. Despite not being able to return until after the season begins, Mitchell carries a better 166.8 ADP at RB51.
At the wide receiver position, the big unknown is Green Bay wideout Christian Watson, who battled hamstring injuries throughout his sophomore season. After a fantastic rookie campaign that produced seven receiving touchdowns, most assumed Watson would ascend to the lead WR1 role in Green Bay. While the Packers offense thrived, Watson struggled to gain traction, producing only 28 receptions and 422 receiving yards. Best ball drafters at UnderdogFantasy currently have Watson as the WR42 with an 81.8 ADP. He is going 30 spots after Jayden Reed and slightly ahead of teammate Romeo Doubs (WR43). If we believe in quarterback Jordan Love and this Packers offense, could Watson be the perfect pre-draft best ball steal?
Tight End Metamorphosis
Are the days of Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews providing a significant positional advantage now over?
Detroit’s Sam LaPorta is drafted as the overall TE1 with an ADP of 29.2. Kelce remains as TE2, but 24-year-old Trey McBride has surpassed Andrews at TE3 overall. However, there is still incredible tight end value later in best ball drafts. My top exposures at tight end are Green Bay’s Luke Musgrave and Cleveland’s David Njoku.
Musgrave provides the perfect Green Bay offensive pivot, available at TE16 with an affordable 132.6 ADP. Njoku’s TE9 ADP is particularly shocking when you consider his red-zone usage even with inconsistent quarterback play. Per our FTN Fantasy Red Zone Stats, Njoku ranked second at the position in both targets inside the 20- and 10-yard lines. Njoku ended the regular season with consecutive TE2, TE2, TE4 and TE3 performances.
With Kelce and Andrews losing support as the clear tight end priorities, could #WaitOnTE be popular again in 2024?
