First TD Bets — Wild Card Monday Slate
Alex Christenson
Data is a massive part of fantasy football and how we here at FTN Fantasy analyze this crazy game. And between our FTN StatsHub, DVOA, Splits and Pace tools, you’ll always have something at your disposal. So with the season just about complete, let’s take a look at 24 stats that stand out from the 2024 campaign.
24 from ’24: Surprising Stats from the Season
1. Marvin Harrison Jr. Posted the 5th-Highest Tight Coverage Rate (46.6%)
Harrison’s rookie season — especially when compared to his lofty fantasy football ADP — was a disappointment. His 46.6% tight coverage rate was the fifth highest in football, as the Cardinals didn’t use their star wideout correctly. For whatever reason, Arizona asked him to run vertical routes down the sideline far too often. He had 22 targets off go routes, which accounted for 19% of his total targets, while his 92.1 air yards per game were the 10th most in the league. He lined up out wide over 70% of the time and only saw one target out of pre-snap motion all year long. A sophomore breakout is likely in 2025, but Arizona has to create more layups for Harrison.
2. C.J. Stroud Had the 2nd-Most Pass Attempts on Third-and-Long (97)
It was a problem all year long for Stroud, as the combination of Houston’s playcalling and offensive line played a huge role. The Texans once again insisted on running as much as anyone on early downs, while Stroud was under pressure on 35% of dropbacks, the third-highest rate in football. Going into 2025, Houston will have a new offensive coordinator, but they also have to protect Stroud a lot better.
3. Derrick Henry Averaged 2.5 YBC/ATT
We expected Henry to be a better player in Baltimore, and he didn’t disappoint. As expected, the efficiency skyrocketed, as Henry climbed from 1.8 yards before contact per attempt during his final year with the Titans to 2.5 this past season. Meanwhile, just 13.8% of his carries were stuffed at or behind the line of scrimmage, as an improved offensive line and the gravity of Lamar Jackson propelled Henry to a huge bounceback campaign.
4. Just 38.3% of Rome Odunze’s Air Yards Were Deemed Catchable
That was the fifth-lowest rate among all wide receivers this season, as he and fellow rookie Caleb Williams didn’t get on the same page nearly as often as we’d like. Williams only completed 27.5% of his deep passes this season, a bottom-10 rate in the league. We’ll see if Keenan Allen returns this year but with Ben Johnson coming over, I expect a lot more fantasy-friendly usage for Odunze in year two.
5. 47.9% of Caleb Williams’ Dropbacks Included Motion
Speaking of Ben Johnson, can we please show the world what Caleb Williams is capable of in 2025? Williams was obviously underwhelming but the scheme didn’t help much. The offensive line was brutal, and there was very little creativity or movement, as just 47.9% of Williams dropbacks included motion, which ranked 21st among signal callers. Meanwhile, Jared Goff had motion included on 66.2% of his dropbacks in Johnson’s offense, the fourth-highest rate in the league.
6. Kyren Williams Accounted for 42.8% of the Rams’ Overall Touches
Williams was one of the most polarizing players this offseason. Would Blake Corum take meaningful work away from him? The answer to that riddle was no. Corum was hardly a factor as a rookie, as Williams led the NFL in touch share, handling nearly 43% of the team’s overall touches this year. His 21.9 touches per game were good for the third most in the league, while he accounted for over 75% of Los Angeles’ rushing attempts (excluding quarterback runs).
7. Jerry Jeudy Averaged 20.8 PPR PPG in Jameis Winston’s Starts
One of the most interesting storylines of the fantasy season was the awakening of Cleveland’s passing attack once Winston took over. And no one woke up like Jeudy, who, thanks to Winston, had a renaissance season in Cleveland. Jeudy was lights out with Winston under center, averaging 9.9 targets, 7.0 receptions, 112.3 receiving yards and nearly 21 PPR PPG in Winston’s starts, per the FTN Fantasy Splits Tool. We’ll see what happens with Cleveland’s quarterback situation in 2025, but it was really encouraging to see Jeudy truly breakout this year.
8. Tua Tagovailoa’s Deep Passing Rate Fell to 7.0% in 2024
Over the last few years, we have grown accustomed to seeing Tua and Miami air it out, ripping off explosive pass plays. But that changed in 2024. Tagovailoa’s deep pass rate fell from 14.3% in 2022 and 11.4% in 2023 to just 7.0% this season. Was it scheme based? Perhaps. But teams also made an effort to limit explosive plays against Miami, deploying two-high safety looks 51.4% of the time against the Dolphins, the highest rate in the NFL. As a result, we saw more usage from tight end Jonnu Smith, who finished the year with a position-high 20 targets off screen passes.
9. Michael Penix Jr. Had the 2nd-Most Highlight Throws in Weeks 16-18 (5)
That obviously sounds like a super-specific time frame, but … well, it is. Penix took over the starting job in Week 16, and from that point on, he impressed. Only Joe Burrow had more highlight throws than Penix’s five, and his numbers would have looked even better if it hadn’t been for a 7% drop rate during that stretch. I’m not saying Penix is going to become a top-tier fantasy quarterback. But he showed me enough that he can play well in this league and support Drake London and company in Atlanta.
10. Davante Adams Accounted for 34.4% of the Jets’ Red Zone Targets Once He Joined the Team
Adams was traded to the Jets ahead of Week 6 and he didn’t look back. From Week 6 on, Adams saw nearly 35% of the Jets’ red zone targets, averaging 10.4 total targets per game (fifth most). Even though Garrett Wilson is one of the best young wideouts in the game, it wasn’t too shocking to see the reunion of Adams and Aaron Rodgers take center stage in New York.
11. Ladd McConkey Finished 4th in EPA/TGT Against Man Coverage (0.69)
McConkey had a very successful rookie season, catching 82 passes for over 1,100 yards and seven touchdowns, also shining in his lone playoff game (9-197-1). He was especially impressive against man coverage, ranking top five in EPA per target, ninth in yards per route run (2.7) and seventh in success rate (60.7%). There’s no secret who Justin Herbert’s go-to receiver is going forward.
12. De’Von Achane Averaged 6.6 Targets Per Game with Tua Tagovailoa
Achane (and the entire Miami offense for that matter) had some pretty drastic splits with and without Tua this season. With Tagovailoa under center, Achane had some huge receiving usage, averaging 6.6 targets, 6.1 receptions, 46.1 receiving yards and 22.4 PPR points per game. We talked about how defenses ran a ton of two-high looks against Miami this season, while Tagovailoa also finished with the league’s fourth-highest checkdown rate at 16.6%.
13. Jayden Daniels Had the 2nd-Most TD Passes in the 4th Quarter and Overtime (12)
As a rookie, Daniels ranked third in the league in EPA per dropback in the fourth quarter and overtime of games, also ranking second in touchdown passes (12), fourth in completion rate (72.1%) and third in passer rating (115.9). His composure in the clutch is the main reason why Washington made a magical run to the NFC title game, as well as why their rebuild has been expedited.
14. James Cook Averaged 0.077 TDs Per Touch
Cook’s uptick in scoring was one of the top storylines of the fantasy season. After scoring just two rushing touchdowns in 2023, Cook led the way with 16 this past season. His 18 total scores ranked second in the NFL. In 2022-2023, Josh Allen recorded 25 carries inside the 5-yard line, while Cook saw only four such carries. That number climbed to 13 in 2024, the 10th most in the league. Despite averaging just 15 touches per game this season, Cook enjoyed his best season, finishing as the RB11 in points per game (16.7) and RB8 in total points.
15. The Commanders Led the NFL in No-Huddle Rate (61.4%)
Wow. With Kliff Kingsbury coming over, we know Washington would play fast on offense. But a 60%-plus no-huddle rate is rather insane. Between that and how often the Commanders went for it on fourth down, this was one of the most aggressive and fantasy-friendly offenses in the entire NFL.
16. Saquon Barkley Was Stuffed Behind the Line of Scrimmage 8% Less in 2024
Barkley’s talent and Philadelphia’s run-blocking unit were a match made in heaven. Once Barkley landed in Philadelphia, the runway was wide open, as he averaged a whopping 3.0 yards before contact per carry, the most among running backs. Meanwhile, just 17.1% of his carries were stuffed at or behind the line of scrimmage. During his final season with the Giants, Barkley averaged 1.4 yards before contact per attempt, while being stuffed 25% of the time.
17. Courtland Sutton Led the NFL with 11 Created Catches
Per the FTN StatsHub, a created catch is simply when a player has to make a difficult catch, displaying body control, footwork, etc. Sutton had more than anyone else in football this season, reminding us that he’s still a very good wide receiver, especially when he has a viable quarterback throwing him the football for once.
18. Pat Surtain II Allowed 0 Touchdowns in Shadow Coverage
The CB Shadow Matrix tool is a terrific one to help view which defensive backs you might want to stay away from. And no one was more of a stay away than Surtain, who didn’t allow a single touchdown while in shadow coverage all year long. And that is despite shadowing wideouts such as DK Metcalf, Mike Evans, Garrett Wilson and George Pickens for over 60% of their routes.
19. Travis Etienne Jr. Averaged 7 Fewer Touches Per Game in 2024
Jacksonville’s backfield became a frustrating committee, as Etienne’s workload dropped to just 12.6 per game, while Tank Bigsby averaged 11.7. Bigsby also finally emerged as the short-yardage option, as he outcarried Etienne 11-5 inside the 5-yard line. As a result, Etienne plummeted from the RB7 in fantasy to RB35.
20. Bucky Irving Ranked 4th Among RBs in EPA/ATT (0.073)
Only Jahmyr Gibbs, Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley were better than Irving in that department. The rookie was a star in 2024, also ranking second in yards after contact per attempt (3.5). His 56 avoided tackles ranked ninth, despite ranking 18th in the NFL in carries with 207. His shiftiness and elusiveness were on full display, as Irving performed a successful juke a league-leading 5.8% of the time.
21. Chase Brown Averaged 23.6 Touches Per Game from Week 9 On
Once Zack Moss was lost for the season, Brown emerged as basically an every-down player for the Bengals, as well as a league-alerting one for fantasy teams. From Week 9 on, he averaged 23.6 touches, 116.3 scrimmage yards and 20.9 PPR points per game, while posting six top-12 finishes during that span. That workload won’t be repeated next year but he’s clearly proven he should be this team’s starting running back going forward.
22. Drake Maye Posted the 2nd-Highest Scramble Rate in the League (10.8%)
A lot of what probably had to do with New England’s poor offensive line, but Maye flashed some fantasy upside with his legs during his rookie campaign. He rushed for at least 25 yards in nine games, providing a solid floor. Now let’s get him some wide receivers and some more protection up front and we could be looking at 2025’s breakout fantasy signal caller.
23. Brock Purdy Had the Highest Explosive Pass Rate in the League (12.3%)
Despite the 49ers offense dealing with multiple injuries, Purdy still played well, leading the league in explosive pass rate. Because of the injuries, there was less reliance on YAC than we’ve been accustomed to seeing from San Francisco, as Purdy’s yards after the catch per pass attempt fell to 3.6 this past season.
24. The Eagles Posted the Highest Neutral-Script Rush Rate (52.4%)
This was great for Saquon Barkley but really hurt the floor and ceiling of the Philadelphia pass-catchers, especially DeVonta Smith. Although the new scheme presented him with more opportunities to be used in both motion and the slot, his volume plummeted, as Smith averaged fewer than seven targets per game.
