Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
We’re back re-evaluating the most important position in all of football – quarterbacks.
In the preseason, I ranked all 32 teams QB rooms, which can be found here. Today, I’m going to update that list at the midway point of the 2024 NFL season.
We always enter the season thinking we know exactly which signal-callers are going to play at elite levels. Despite our confidence levels every year, there are a few surprises and 2024 is no different. We’ve seen a few guys come out of nowhere to elevate their teams to greatness, while others have underwhelmed despite lofty expectations.
As a reminder, the way these rankings are formulated is by asking a simple question – “If I’m trying to win a Super Bowl this year, which quarterback room would I select to help me do it?”
Because quarterback is a position that’s largely operated by one individual, a team’s starter is the primary influence on these rankings. There are a few instances where noteworthy backups give a slight nudge as well, but more often than not, it’s one guy determining where a team falls on this list. For the sake of this list, any players who have been ruled out for the entire season have not been considered.
2024 NFL Quarterback Rankings — Midseason Update
1. Kansas City Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes isn’t putting up the best statistical season of his career in 2024, but that doesn’t change the fact that he’s the unquestioned best quarterback in the NFL. Despite the rag tag group of pass-catchers surrounding him, Mahomes still has the Chiefs looking like the Super Bowl favorites at this stage of the season. There’s a reason this guy has two NFL MVP awards, three Super Bowl rings and three Super Bowl MVP awards. He’s the best in the game right now, and the only question is if he’s the best to ever do it.
2. Baltimore Ravens
Lamar Jackson may not be the consensus No. 2 in this spot (that’s likely Josh Allen), but he’s the reigning MVP and a strong candidate to win the award again this year for a reason. Any Jackson-led offense will look different from the way the rest of the league operates, but it doesn’t make him any less effective. The pressure he puts on opposing defenses with his dual-threat ability drastically influences how defensive coordinators game plan for him. With each passing year, Jackon’s only gotten better at making defenses pay when they sell out to stop the run. He’s as close to a one man offense as there is in the NFL.
3. Buffalo Bills
Josh Allen’s transition to the post-Stefon Diggs era started off red hot and has cooled off a bit. Still, the main reason Buffalo felt comfortable moving on from its star receiver was confidence in their quarterback and his ability to elevate the rest of their offense. Allen is a gunslinger in every sense of the word, and his fearless play style paired with absurd arm talent and athleticism makes him a nightmare for opposing offenses week in and week out.
4. Los Angeles Rams
This may feel like a high ranking for Matthew Stafford and the Rams quarterback room, but the veteran continues to impress regardless of the circumstances around him. The Rams offense has been decimated by injuries this year, yet Stafford (with some good coaching from Sean McVay) continues to keep L.A. in the playoff hunt in a highly competitive NFC West. There are few quarterbacks in the league you’d rather have in crunch time than Stafford, and his placement on this list is reflective of that dominance.
5. Los Angeles Chargers
The stats this year certainly aren’t going to show it – and maybe they never will with Jim Harbaugh calling the shots – but don’t let the numbers fool you, Justin Herbert is an elite NFL quarterback. The rocket-armed passer remains one of the best processors in the game, and he has the athleticism and arm talent to do anything an offensive coordinator could dream of. It’ll be interesting to see if the Chargers ever take the training wheels off Herbert in this offense, but even if they don’t, that doesn’t take away from his supreme talent.
6. Cincinnati Bengals
Don’t let the Bengals’ record fool you, Joe Burrow is still one of the best in the business. Despite the unimpressive record, Burrow and the offense haven’t been the problem. We’re not far removed from Burrow leading the Bengals to a Super Bowl appearance, and the star quarterback’s pinpoint accuracy and unflappable toughness haven’t gone away since then. He’s still an unquestioned top-10 player at the position and will continue to be so for years to come.
7. Houston Texans
The only question about C.J. Stroud coming into the season was whether or not his success was sustainable. Thus far, he’s left no doubt that he’s here to stay. The numbers may not be quite as eye-popping as they were during the peak of his rookie year, but Stroud still has this Texans offense operating like a well-oiled machine. He’s a pinpoint passer who can attack every level of the field with a seemingly effortless demeanor. He’s already one of the best in the business, and the arrow is only pointing up for the sophomore passer.
8. Dallas Cowboys
Dak Prescott doesn’t possess the same level of flash many quarterbacks near the top of this list do, but that doesn’t make him a lesser player. Prescott is an absolute surgeon both before and after the snap, and over the past few seasons, he’s evolved into arguably the best pre-snap player in the game today. He can dissect a defense just as well before or after the snap, and the precision he plays with is second to none. He’s a master of the Dallas offense, and the combination of his brain and arm makes him an elite NFL quarterback.
9. Arizona Cardinals
After a few disappointing seasons, Kyler Murray and the Cardinals appear to have re-emerged as a legitimate playoff contender. Murray in particular looks like he’s fully returned to form after an injury kept him out for an extended period in 2022 and 2023. His athleticism remains a headache for opposing defenders, and an improved supporting cast around him has him and this Cardinals offense firing on all cylinders.
10. Washington Commanders
This may feel premature for many, but it’s hard to argue Jayden Daniels has been anything other than elite to start out his NFL career. He’s made the transition from LSU to the NFL look like a cake walk, and both the passing game and the ground game have translated well to the professional ranks. No one thought Washington would be the most efficient offense in the league at this point in the season (or at any point for that matter), but Daniels has single-handedly taken the Commanders to a new level.
11. Seattle Seahawks
There’s still a part of me that thinks Geno Smith is going to fall back down to earth, but ever since the 34-year-old passer has joined the Seahawks, he’s been a fantastic player. Smith boasts an impressive arm and an unflappable confidence that allows him to make some of the toughest throws imaginable. Smith doesn’t have any eye-popping traits, but he also doesn’t possess many (if any) weaknesses either. It took some time for him to get there, but after a long journey, Smith has officially entrenched himself in the “franchise quarterback” category.
12. Green Bay Packers
Jordan Love’s sample size remains relatively small, but Green Bay’s quarterback still looks to be one of the better passers in the league with plenty of room to continue blooming. Love checks a lot of boxes from a physical profile, and I’d imagine he and the Packers offense are only going to continue finding their groove. He still has some work to do when it comes to reading defenses at the level of an elite quarterback, but the physical traits are there, and the arrow is only pointing up.
13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Baker Mayfield’s resume has gotten a serious bump ever since joining the Bucs. The veteran passer is far and away playing the best football of his career, and it looks like the change at offensive coordinator hasn’t caused him to miss a beat. Mayfield has this Bucs passing attack firing on all cylinders, and he’s never looked more comfortable leading an NFL offense than he has throughout 2024.
14. Jacksonville Jaguars
While many will balk at the idea of Trevor Lawrence still being a top half of the league quarterback, the film still suggests he has all the traits of an elite passer, and there aren’t many better options at this point. Lawrence’s budding connection with Brian Thomas Jr. looks like it could evolve into something truly special, and if the two can keep building on their already strong connection, we could start to see the Lawrence many thought we would see coming out of Clemson on a consistent basis. Lawrence still checks all the boxes from a physical perspective, and I’m still holding out hope that the rest of it will click soon for Lawrence as well.
15. Atlanta Falcons
The first few weeks looked really rough for Kirk Cousins coming off the Achilles injury that ended his 2023 season prematurely. Since then, it appears he’s shaken off some rust and appears to have returned to form. As Cousins continues getting comfortable in this Atlanta offense, the impressive play is likely only going to improve. He and Drake London appear to be finding a real groove in this passing attack, and it shouldn’t shock anyone if Cousins finishes the season with one of the best statistical profiles in the entire NFL. Throw in the fact that Michael Penix Jr. is waiting in the wings, and the Falcons have to be happy with their quarterback room for the first time in a while.
16. Philadelphia Eagles
A slow start for the Eagles has Jalen Hurts falling somewhat significantly down these rankings. Hurts’ turnovers to start the season were backbreaking for the Eagles offense, but in recent weeks it appears he’s gotten that aspect of his game under control. If the clean style of play continues, he can bump much further back up these rankings, but if the turnovers start to appear again, the freefall will continue.
17. Detroit Lions
Jared Goff may not be more than a game manager, but the Detroit Lions have no problem with that label given how impressive Goff has this entire offense looking throughout 2024. Is he the one carrying the entire unit? Of course not, but he’s done more than enough for the Lions organization to have a ton of confidence in him. He’s a great player when operating in structure, and as long as the Lions can continue allowing him to operate in that manner, he’ll be just fine.
18. San Francisco 49ers
The Brock Purdy evaluation remains one of the toughest in the entire league. The infrastructure around him is as good as it gets, and he puts up the numbers that suggest he’s a locked-in top-10 quarterback. Still Purdy isn’t quite the playmaker that the names above him on this list are, and he’ll have a tough time ever cracking into the top 10 due to his lack of physical traits. One area where we have seen Purdy perform at a borderline elite level this year has been his pocket management. If he can continue keeping the 49ers offense on schedule, and buying just enough time when he can’t, he’ll continue to lead one of the league’s best offenses.
19. New York Jets
There are a few times every game where it looks like Aaron Rodgers is back in peak form. He’ll thread the needle a few times to make an absolutely mind-boggling throw that will cause your jaw to drop, but the consistency simply hasn’t been there. Rodgers and the entire Jets passing attack seems to be out of sync, and it’s hard to envision him finding the fountain of youth and turning things around in his age-40 season. Maybe he just needs more time to acclimate to his supporting cast, but the more likely scenario is we’re witnessing a shell of Rodgers’ former self.
20. Chicago Bears
There’s a bit of forecasting baked into this ranking, but after a slow start to his NFL career, Caleb Williams has started to look like the guy the Bears drafted him to be. Williams has flashed the playmaking ability he showed at USC on numerous occasions in Chicago, and he’s finding a better and better groove with DJ Moore and Rome Odunze with each passing week. He looks like he’s gaining command of this Bears offense, and if that trend continues, he has a chance to skyrocket up these rankings.
21. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers are one of the few teams on this list who truly get a bump from having two quarterbacks on the list. While Justin Fields himself was playing the best ball of his career, the emergence of Russell Wilson in recent weeks has been even better for this Steelers offense. At this point in their careers, neither quarterback is an elite option, but with the way Pittsburgh is built as a team, that’s completely fine for now.
22. Indianapolis Colts
Anthony Richardson getting benched is certainly one of the bigger surprises of the NFL season thus far. There were high hopes for the physically gifted passer, but things simply haven’t clicked for him. Having a great backup option like Joe Flacco made this transition much easier for Indianapolis, but still, benching your franchise quarterback is never a good sign for your team’s outlook.
23. Miami Dolphins
Tua Tagovailoa’s absence has certainly been felt in Miami to start the season. He keeps this high-octane offense on schedule, and it’s clear that when he’s out, the Dolphins aren’t able to operate at the same level. We’re all hoping he’s able to regain his health and get back to leading this offense in an efficient manner, because the rest of the quarterbacks on this roster haven’t been capable of keeping the ship afloat while he’s been sidelined.
24. Minnesota Vikings
Not many would have had this start to the Vikings season on their bingo cards entering the year. Yes, the defense has been the star of the show in Minnesota, but Sam Darnold has the offense operating at a high level as well. The veteran passer is easily playing the best ball of his career, and it appears his transition to Kevin O’Connell’s offense has allowed something to click. Darnold certainly isn’t playing at an elite level, but he’s doing enough to keep the Vikings playing well, and he’s most likely played himself into a lucrative contract this offseason.
25. New England Patriots
In all likelihood, 2024 is going to be a very volatile year for Drake Maye New England’s rookie quarterback has already flashed some fantastic playmaking ability, and his willingness to push the ball deep looks like it will unlock a layer of this offense that Jacoby Brissett was unwilling (or unable) to tap into. There will undoubtedly be growing pains for Maye this year, but the arrow is absolutely pointing up in New England’s quarterback room.
26. New Orleans Saints
Derek Carr absolutely lit it up the first two weeks of the season, but since then he’s fallen back down to earth. It’s clear that Carr simply isn’t going to ever be a ceiling raiser in this offense, and his conservative playstyle puts some serious limitations on what offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak wants to do. Still, Carr is an NFL-caliber quarterback, and Spencer Rattler has shown some promise when given the opportunity to start as well.
27. Carolina Panthers
Before the season began, if we mentioned Bryce Young would have already been benched, we would assume the quarterback play in Carolina would be unquestionably the worst in the league. While the Panthers aren’t exactly getting superstar play out of Andy Dalton, he turned this offense into an NFL-caliber group. Dalton’s veteran presence has been a breath of fresh air in Carolina.
28. New York Giants
After an offseason filled with rumors about his job security, Daniel Jones has come out in 2024 and performed at an okay level. Has he done enough to retain his job heading into 2025? Probably not, but things haven’t looked as abysmal in New York as they did last year. Jones’ decent play has come both with and without Malik Nabers in the lineup, so it’s not solely the rookie pass-catcher who’s making the difference. Jones is never going to be a guy who brings this team to the playoffs, but he’s keeping them competent as the team continues building for the future.
29. Denver Broncos
Bo Nix hasn’t done much to elevate the Broncos offense, but he’s still a stark upgrade over what the Broncos have had under center in year’s past. The rookie quarterback is playing an extremely conservative style of football, and he’ll need to turn the aggression up a few notches if he wants to put any form of stress on opposing defenses. Unfortunately for Nix, the Broncos don’t have many (any?) downfield weapons that encourage him to play with more aggression. In order to get the most out of Nix, Denver will need to add some downfield playmakers to their roster, and unfortunately we’re unlikely to get that until the offseason.
30. Cleveland Browns
It’s crazy to think the presence of Jameis Winston is what’s keeping Cleveland out of last place in these rankings. When he was healthy, Deshaun Watson was playing like the worst quarterback in the league. With Winston, the offense at least appears to have a little bit of juice, but we all know that Winston certainly comes with some volatility as well.
31. Tennessee Titans
It’s been an ugly start to the season for Will Levis and the Titans offense. The sophomore quarterback simply hasn’t been able to stop making costly mistakes at the most inopportune times. It remains to be seen whether or not Levis can clean up this part of his game, as this is a part of the game that can improve with experience. Levis still does show flashes of brilliance at times, and the physical traits remain those of a franchise quarterback, so there’s still a sliver of optimism in Tennessee. Unfortunately for Titans fans, the most likely scenario is Levis simply doesn’t have what it takes to hang at the NFL level. And that’s assuming he takes the job back from Mason Rudolph at some point.
32. Las Vegas Raiders
The old saying goes “if you have two quarterbacks, you don’t have any,” and that couldn’t be more true for the Las Vegas Raiders. Neither Gardner Minshew II nor Aidan O’Connell are needle-movers at the position, and the Raiders are a team who will all but certainly have a new signal-caller under center in 2025.
