Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The new rookie class around the NFL gets all the attention over the summer. They’re the flashy new pieces for fantasy football, and of course they can be anything.
But last year’s rookies aren’t fully formed yet. The players entering their second season aren’t the fancy new thing anymore. That can open up some value in fantasy drafts for players still due to break out, and it can lead to fantasy mistakes for players who had a good first season and turn out to be a mirage. Everyone knows Year 1 to Year 2 is one of the biggest jumps an NFL player can make, but this still happens.
Over the course of the summer, we’re going to revisit last year’s rookie class in our Second-Year Scouting Report series, looking at the incoming sophomore NFL players to see what went right in their rookie season, what went wrong and what we can expect from them going forward.
Quentin Johnston, Los Angeles Chargers
The 21st overall selection in the 2023 NFL Draft, Quentin Johnston was regarded as the top wideout in last year’s class by many. During his time at TCU, Johnston displayed tremendous after-the-catch ability with an ideal combination of size and speed. His combine results weren’t the most impressive, but he still saw good draft capital with a great offense. With Keenan Allen and Mike Williams still in town, we weren’t projecting a huge role from Johnston in his rookie year.
But we were expecting, I don’t know. Something.
What Went Wrong
Just about everything.
Johnston’s rookie season was so disappointing that it is now a legitimate question as to whether or not he’ll be able to revive his career and become fantasy relevant at all. He struggled with drops, and even when both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams were sidelined, Johnston still couldn’t take strides, averaging just 28.9 yards and 6.2 PPR points per game. His 7.1% drop rate was 16th-worst among all wideouts with at least 50 targets, while Johnston’s 0.88 yards per route run ranked 13th-worst among qualified wide receivers. His 5.5 PPR points per game were the 23rd-fewest by a first-round wide receiver during their rookie season since 2000, while his 25.4 receiving yards per game ranked 22nd-worst. The struggles were even more disappointing when you consider that Johnston played with a very good quarterback in Justin Herbert, while also playing in a fantasy-friendly offense. Last season, the Chargers ranked sixth in the NFL in neutral-script pass rate (61.2%), while also ranking second in average seconds per snap (25.1) and third in no-huddle rate (15.4%). Johnston played a larger role starting in Week 14, and from then on, he ran a route on nearly 90% of dropbacks. However, during that span, he earned just a 12% target share, while drawing a target on 11% of his routes.
What Went Right
It is really difficult to point out any positives from Johnston’s rookie season. He at least got on the field down the stretch last year and saw high-upside targets. According to FTN Data, go routes made up 22.4% of Johnston’s targets last season, but overall, it was a brutal rookie campaign from Johnston.
Prognosis Entering 2024
Look. The opportunity is certainly there for Johnston to be a post-hype sleeper in fantasy football. Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Austin Ekeler and Gerald Everett are all gone, which means a whopping 58% of the Chargers’ 2023 targets now need to be replaced, the highest rate in the league. And we know the sophomore campaign is often when wide receivers take that huge step in their career. The Chargers drafted Ladd McConkey this offseason, while adding veteran DJ Chark. So I’d certainly expect Johnston to improve on his 67 targets from last season, though it likely won’t be by much. With Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman coming over, this team’s offensive identity is going to go from air it out to ground and pound. And unless Roman starts to scheme touches for Johnston in similar ways TCU did, the target share is likely to be low. Johnston needs a high passing volume offense to get there, and everything the Chargers have shown us indicates that won’t be the case.
Dynasty Outlook
A potential buy-low window is still open if you believe Johnston bounces back this season. He can probably be acquired for an early third-round pick in dynasty leagues right now, and while the hit rate is low, we have seen a few players really emerge as viable fantasy wide receivers following disastrous rookie seasons. And if Johnston does bounce back, he’ll be paired with one of the top young quarterbacks in the league, which is obviously valuable. Admittedly, however, I would be a lot more excited about Johnston’s prospects if Kellen Moore was still calling plays in Los Angeles.
