Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Week 11 of the NFL season was destined to give us some big upheaval in the NFL power rankings. Chiefs/Bills, Ravens/Steelers, Commanders/Eagles, 49ers/Seahawks, Falcons/Broncos … there were plenty of games where the result was going to upset the apple cart no matter who came out on top.
What felt pretty certain — and what has actually happened — is that the No. 1 team stayed in place. Because the Detroit Lions were the top team in our Week 10 NFL power rankings, and with a matchup against a Jaguars team that was one of the worst even before losing its quarterback, there was precious little chance of the Lions dropping out of No. 1. And of course, they went out and rolled 52-6 with touchdowns on each of their first seven possessions, so the Lions didn’t leave us in much suspense: We do indeed have a repeat No. 1 team this week.
That bring us to our Week 11 NFL power rankings. Our rankings are a composite of five things: DVOA, plus our own Marshall Gershon, Mike Randle, Daniel Kelley and Dane Martinez. (DVOA is the decider if the voting results in a tie.) These rankings will come out every Tuesday morning, after Monday Night Football and after that week’s DVOA update. Rankings are fun, of course, but they are also key for bettors. Check out our NFL Betting Model with the latest data, and our experts put all their top bets into the NFL Bet Tracker.
Check out the team-by-team rankings below, and then at the bottom you can view the full voting breakdown.
NFL Power Rankings Through Week 11
Biggest Risers
Seattle Seahawks +6 (19 to 13)
Denver Broncos +5 (15 to 10)
Biggest Fallers
Washington Commanders -8 (6 to 14)
San Francisco 49ers -7 (8 to 15)
1. Detroit Lions (Last Week: 1; Average Score: 1.0)
Record: 9-1, +159 point differential
Week 11: Beat the Jaguars 52-6
Week 12: @ Indianapolis
The Lions rolled the Jaguars, unsurprisingly. The question at this point is whether they want to challenge the 2013 Broncos for most points in a season (606; Lions are on pace for 571) or the 2007 Patriots for point differential (+315; Lions are on pace for 270).
2. Buffalo Bills (Last Week: 4; Average Score: 2.4)
Record: 9-2, +106
Week 11: Beat the Chiefs 30-21
Week 12: Bye
Sunday is shaping up as the signature win of Josh Allen’s career, with his game-sealing touchdown the signature play.
3. Kansas City Chiefs (Last Week: 2; Average Score: 3.6)
Record: 9-1, +49
Week 11: Lost to the Bills 30-21
Week 12: @ Carolina
Everyone loses. The Chiefs are still one of the favorites in the league.
4. Philadelphia Eagles (Last Week: 7; Average Score: 4.8)
Record: 8-2, +80
Week 11: Beat the Commanders 26-18
Week 12: @ LA Rams (Sunday night)
The Eagles have simultaneously dealt with murmurs about coach Nick Sirianni possibly being fired and rolled through most of the league so far. It’s a weird juxtaposition.
5. Baltimore Ravens (Last Week: 3; Average Score: 5.0)
Record: 7-4, +63
Week 11: Lost to the Steelers 18-16
Week 12: @ LA Chargers (Monday)
Will the Ravens have to start thinking about what to do with Justin Tucker? It’s a heavy undercurrent on what has otherwise been a very successful year.
6. Pittsburgh Steelers (Last Week: 5; Average Score: 6.6)
Record: 7-2, +71
Week 11: Beat the Ravens 18-16
Week 12: @ Cleveland (Thursday)
Sometimes the world isn’t fair. The Steelers beat the No. 3 team in last week’s rankings and not only didn’t jump them, they actually fell overall thanks to the Eagles’ surge. Of course, that wasn’t really a dominant win, with no Pittsburgh touchdowns scored.
7. Los Angeles Chargers (Last Week: 9; Average Score: 7.4)
Record: 7-3, +75
Week 11: Beat the Bengals 34-27
Week 12: vs. Baltimore (Monday)
Justin Herbert has been unleashed since getting healthy, flirting with the fringe of the MVP conversation.
8. Minnesota Vikings (Last Week: 11; Average Score: 9.0)
Record: 8-2, +74
Week 11: Beat the Titans 23-13
Week 12: @ Chicago
Can the rest of the Vikings’ strengths make up for Sam Darnold’s propensity for turnovers? So far, the answer is yes, but it could rear its ugly head in the wrong moment.
9. Green Bay Packers (Last Week: 9; Average Score: 9.0)
Record: 7-3, +37
Week 11: Beat the Bears 20-19
Week 12: vs. San Francisco
By all rights, the Packers should have lost in Week 11 and fallen to a deflating 6-4. They didn’t, but it still wasn’t a game that sparked a fire.
10. Denver Broncos (Last Week: 15; Average Score: 10.8)
Record: 6-5, +52
Week 11: Beat the Falcons 38-6
Week 12: @ Las Vegas
Speaking of sparking a fire, the Broncos rolled in what should have been a competitive game against the Falcons. Them being one of the week’s biggest risers makes total sense.
11. Arizona Cardinals (Last Week: 13; Average Score: 11.2)
Record: 6-4, +18
Week 11: Bye
Week 12: @ Seattle
The Cardinals climb two spots despite the week off. Handy when the league just makes way for you.
12. Houston Texans (Last Week: 12; Average Score: 11.6)
Record: 7-4, +22
Week 11: Beat the Cowboys 34-10
Week 12: vs. Tennessee
The Texans merely held serve last week, handily beating a Cowboys team they should have handily beaten.
13. Seattle Seahawks (Last Week: 19; Average Score: 13.0)
Record: 5-5, -8
Week 11: Beat the 49ers 20-17
Week 12: vs. Arizona
The Seahawks desperately needed that win Sunday after losing five of six since Week 3. They’ll play for first place in the NFC West this week.
14. Washington Commanders (Last Week: 6; Average Score: 13.2)
Record: 7-4, +65
Week 11: Lost to the Eagles 26-18
Week 12: vs. Dallas
Time for concern in Washington? The Commanders have lost two in a row and could be on a four-of-six stretch if not for that Hail Mary against Chicago.
15. San Francisco 49ers (Last Week: 8; Average Score: 14.0)
Record: 5-5, +28
Week 11: Lost to the Seahawks 20-17
Week 12: @ Green Bay
The 49ers were 5-5 (and in fact got to 6-6 and 8-7) in 2021 before righting the shift and making it all the way to the conference championships, but things need to start changing soon in San Francisco if they want to do that again.
16. Los Angeles Rams (Last Week: 18; Average Score: 15.6)
Record: 5-5, -26
Week 11: Beat the Patriots 28-22
Week 12: vs. Philadelphia (Sunday night)
The Rams’ passing offense is on fire through Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. Kyren Williams’ production has dipped a bit, though — after 10 touchdowns through his first seven games, he’s scoreless in his last three.
17. Cincinnati Bengals (Last Week: 14; Average Score: 16.6)
Record: 4-7, +1
Week 11: Lost to the Chargers 34-27
Week 12: Bye
The Bengals aren’t done-done, but they are all out of leash. They are on the verge of wasting an all-timer of a season from Joe Burrow.
18. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Last Week: 17; Average Score: 17.8)
Record: 4-6, +13
Week 11: Bye
Week 12: @ NY Giants
Tampa jumps over Atlanta in the standing on their bye, a result of the Falcons getting demolished by Denver. Even with that, they have some work to do if they want to compete in the NFC South.
19. Atlanta Falcons (Last Week: 16; Average Score: 18.4)
Record: 6-5, -30
Week 11: Lost to the Broncos 38-6
Week 12: Bye
Was Week 11 a blip, or is it panic time in Atlanta? We could be steering toward another NFC South champion with a losing record.
20. Miami Dolphins (Last Week: 21; Average Score: 20.6)
Record: 4-6, -40
Week 11: Beat the Raiders 34-19
Week 12: vs. New England
The Dolphins are now 3-1 in Tua Tagovailoa’s four full games (to be fair, they were definitely going to lose in the game he got injured). They’ll need to upset at least one of Green Bay, Houston or San Francisco if they want to get back into the playoff conversation, though.
21. New Orleans Saints (Last Week: 22; Average Score: 20.8)
Record: 4-7, +2
Week 11: Beat the Browns 35-14
Week 12: Bye
Two wins, seven losses, two wins. This Saints team is a walking contradiction.
22. Indianapolis Colts (Last Week: 20; Average Score: 21.4)
Record: 5-6, -14
Week 11: Beat the Jets 28-27
Week 12: vs. Detroit
Beating the Jets is all well and good, but everyone is doing that. If the Colts and Anthony Richardson can at least look competitive against the Lions next week, that’ll go a lot further.
23. Chicago Bears (Last Week: 22; Average Score: 22.6)
Record: 4-6, +7
Week 11: Lost to the Packers 20-19
Week 12: vs. Minnesota
The Bears are a 4-6 team that could easily be 6-4 and in playoff position without two last-second crazy plays. That said, you are what your record says you are, though at least the offense appeared a bit more functional in Week 11 after the OC change.
24. New York Jets (Last Week: 24; Average Score: 24.8)
Record: 3-8, -38
Week 11: Lost to the Colts 28-27
Week 12: Bye
The Jets are running away with the “disaster season” championship.
25. New England Patriots (Last Week: 27; Average Score: 26.6)
Record: 3-8, -66
Week 11: Lost to the Rams 28-22
Week 12: @ Miami
This is a great example of how big a role expectations (and an exciting quarterback) play in results. The Patriots have the same record as the Jets (and a much worse point differential), but the Jets are enormous letdowns while the Patriots are the frisky, fun team.
26. Cleveland Browns (Last Week: 25; Average Score: 27.0)
Record: 2-9, -86
Week 11: Lost to the Saints 35-14
Week 12: vs. Pittsburgh (Thursday)
The Browns managing only 14 points despite Jameis Winston passing for 395 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions feels impossible.
27. Tennessee Titans (Last Week: 26; Average Score: 27.6)
Record: 2-8, -93
Week 11: Lost to the Vikings 23-13
Week 12: @ Houston
The Titans’ two wins came over a Dolphins team starting Tyler Huntley and overtime against the Patriots. They haven’t topped 20 points in a game all season outside of that Dolphins game. It’s rough.
28. Carolina Panthers (Last Week: 30; Average Score: 28.0)
Record: 3-7, -143
Week 11: Bye
Week 12: vs. Kansas City
The Panthers are set for a rough return from bye going against a Chiefs team playing angry. But Bryce Young appears to be improving.
29. Dallas Cowboys (Last Week: 28; Average Score: 28.4)
Record: 3-7, -106
Week 11: Lost to the Texans 34-10
Week 12: @ Washington
Could the Cowboys take a longer look at Trey Lance? Cooper Rush racked up the yards Monday, but the team has 16 points in two weeks under Rush’s leadership.
30. New York Giants (Last Week: 31; Average Score: 29.0)
Record: 2-8, -66
Week 11: Bye
Week 12: vs. Tampa Bay
Tommy DeVito time in New York. DeVito wasn’t actually good last year. This isn’t a good solution for the Giants, but then there isn’t one.
31. Las Vegas Raiders (Last Week: 32; Average Score: 29.6)
Record: 2-8, -98
Week 11: Lost to the Dolphins 34-19
Week 12: vs. Denver
The rest of the Raiders season is basically just about Brock Bowers. For fantasy, that is just fine, because he could easily end the year as the TE1.
32. Jacksonville Jaguars (Last Week: 29; Average Score: 30.6)
Record: 2-9, -108
Week 11: Lost to the Lions 52-6
Week 12: Bye
The Jaguars are just about unwatchable unless they get Trevor Lawrence back out there. … if that happens.
Check out the full voting below.
