First TD Bets — Wild Card Monday Slate
Alex Christenson
We’re down to the final eight teams in the NFL playoffs after a Wild Card Round that featured five blowouts in six games. The average margin of victory over the weekend was 15.2 points, the third time in five years under the current playoff structure where the Wild Card weekend margin was at least 15 points.
Translation: Just making the playoffs doesn’t necessarily signify that a team is among the elite. But once you get to the final eight? You have to take those teams seriously. A pretender can still make it that far, but at the very least they warrant more thought.
Which brings us to the NFL power rankings heading into the Divisional Round. We are only considering teams still active in the playoffs, so there are only eight teams to vote on for our voters (DVOA, plus our own Marshall Gershon, Mike Randle, Daniel Kelley and Dane Martinez, with DVOA the decider in case of a tie) and longer thoughts on each team. Rankings are fun, of course, but they are also key for bettors. Check out our NFL Betting Model with the latest data, and our experts put all their top bets into the NFL Bet Tracker.
Check out the team-by-team rankings below, and then at the bottom you can view the full voting breakdown.
NFL Power Rankings Through the Wild Card Round
1. Baltimore Ravens (Last Week: 1, Average Score, 1.0)
Wild Card Round: Beat the Steelers 28-14
Divisional Round: @ Buffalo
The Ravens won by 14 last week, but the game didn’t even feel that close. Since their Week 14 bye, they’ve won five straight by a combined 163-57 with no more than 17 points allowed in a game. Lamar Jackson has thrown for 14 touchdowns (and run for another) against only 1 interception.
This is the big test, of course. Sunday’s game against the Bills is a battle of the assured top two in this year’s MVP voting, and it will be affirming for the winner (finally getting over a big hump) but a huge narrative bummer for the other (getting called a “playoff choker” or some other nonsense). As we write this, the road Ravens are slight favorites, but it’s close enough that neither result should be a huge shock.
2. Detroit Lions (Last Week: 2, Average Score, 3.0)
Wild Card Round: Bye
Divisional Round: vs. Washington
The Lions apparently ruined the Vikings, beating them down in Week 18 and sending them off to get demolished by the Rams in the Wild Card Round. Meanwhile, for as banged up as the Lions have been, they’re starting to get healthier. Alex Anzalone returned in Week 18, and David Montgomery is expected back for the Divisional Round game.
For as good as the Commanders have been, the Lions are the biggest favorite of this round, with lines as high as 9.5 points on some books. A win this week would be cementing a dominant season for Detroit, while a loss would be crushing for a team that has set itself up for a first ever title.
3. Buffalo Bills (Last Week: 3, Average Score, 3.0)
Wild Card Round: Beat the Broncos 31-7
Divisional Round: vs. Baltimore
Even after falling behind 7-0 to the Broncos on a 43-yard Bo Nix-to-Troy Franklin pass on the opening drive, the Bills never really felt tested in the Wild Card Round, pulling ahead 10-7 early in the second quarter and then rolling Denver 21-0 in the second half. It was an utter blowout or a Broncos team that had overachieved in 2024, with the Bills advancing to their fifth straight Divisional Round. The bad news? They’ve lost in that Divisional Round each of the last three years and have been eliminated by the Chiefs in three of the last four years.
Sunday, the Bills get the latest game of the year, facing a Ravens team that has been peaking. Baltimore blew out Buffalo 35-10 in Week 4, the Bills’ first loss of the year, but that was nearly four months ago and only counts so much at this point. For the sake of the Bills’ (and Josh Allen’s) legacy, the Bills could really stand to advance past this round.
4. Kansas City Chiefs (Last Week: 5, Average Score, 3.8)
Wild Card Round: Bye
Divisional Round: vs. Houston
Since Patrick Mahomes took over as the starter in Kansas City, they’ve obviously made the playoffs every year, and they’ve had playoff byes in five of seven years and have either made the Super Bowl or lost in overtime of the Conference Championship Round every year. As 8-point favorites against a Texans team they beat 27-19 just four weeks ago, every expectation is that that streak will continue.
Of course, it’s not necessarily that easy. After flailing for a few weeks, the Texans looked dominant for a huge chunk of Saturday’s game as they dispatched the Chargers. With the Chiefs’ questions at offensive line, the Texans’ defensive front could pose a big issue for Kansas City. Odds are still with the Chiefs advancing, but there is a very clear battle they’ll need to figure out.
5. Philadelphia Eagles (Last Week: 4, Average Score, 4.2)
Wild Card Round: Beat the Packers 22-10
Divisional Round: vs. LA Rams
The Eagles went ahead 7-0 only 100 seconds into their game Sunday despite not even receiving the opening kickoff and never felt seriously tested by the Packers. That’s the good news. The bad news is that the offense didn’t really get going in that game, with Jalen Hurts managing 131 passing yards and A.J. Brown limited to a single 10-yard catch.
The defense is strong enough at this point that the Eagles don’t necessarily need to be a juggernaut to win games, but the offense will have to turn things up at some point if the team wants to make a deep playoff run. Considering how the Rams played Monday, that urgency might start now. If the Eagles can’t get more offensive production this week, the playoff run might be short.
6. Washington Commanders (Last Week: 9, Average Score, 6.2)
Wild Card Round: Beat the Buccaneers 23-20
Divisional Round: @ Detroit
The Commanders continued their “Team of Destiny” season Sunday by beating the Buccaneers on a last-second doink field goal after a game-ending drive by Jayden Daniels. Even with question marks at offensive line and not much in the running game (the Commanders’ rushing yard leader has been a quarterback in five straight games).
The whole destiny thing gets a huge test Saturday night, when the Commanders travel to Detroit to face the best team in the NFC all year. The good news is there’s no pressure. Lose, and you’ve already overperformed every expectation for 2024 and will be one of the exciting teams entering 2025. But win, and they’ll make celebratory documentaries about your season.
7. Los Angeles Rams (Last Week: 13, Average Score, 6.8)
Wild Card Round: Beat the Vikings 27-9
Divisional Round: @ Philadelphia
It’s a very open question how much of Monday’s outcome is credit to the Rams vs. how much is blame to the Vikings (and Sam Darnold). After a magical season through Week 17, Darnold looked like his old seeing-ghosts self the last two weeks in losing by a combined 58-18 and managing one total touchdown. In his and the Vikings’ defense, the Lions were the best team in the NFC and the Rams have been surging since an early-season lull, but still, there is a real bad taste left despite a 14-3 regular season.
As for the Rams, the team that started 1-4 and had “will they blow it up?” vibes coming into the trade deadline has now won six straight games that had meaning (they lost in Week 18 after having their playoff bid locked) and take what just looked like a stout defense into Philadelphia against an offense that had questions in the Wild Card Round. A win this week would be a huge feather in Sean McVay’s cap.
8. Houston Texans (Last Week: 15, Average Score, 8.0)
Wild Card Round: Beat the Chargers 32-12
Divisional Round: @ Kansas City
The Texans won 10 games in the regular season, but only one of those wins (23-20 over Buffalo in Week 5) was over a playoff team, with losses to the playoff-bound Vikings, Packers, Lions, Chiefs and Ravens over the year. Houston managed only 2 points on Christmas Day against the Ravens. So it was fair to wonder if they’d be a quick out in the playoffs. Instead, the Texans rolled the Chargers from the second quarter on — they were behind 6-0 early but outscored Los Angeles 32-6 the rest of the way, forcing four turnovers. The credit for the win goes to the defense, but that sort of defensive performance can paper over a lot of offensive flaws.
Houston will likely need a strong performance in all aspects Saturday against a Chiefs roster that went 15-1 in the regular season before phoning in their Week 18 game. The vibes in Houston have been bad most of the year given the preseason expectations, but a win this week would cover over a lot of the disappointment that fell their way in 2024.
Check out the full voting below.
