2024 Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: ADP Rumblings (8/7)

Preseason games have finally arrived, and football is around the corner. By the end of the month, most fantasy leagues will have started or completed their drafts.

The surplus of training camp highlights and reports is starting to create dramatic shifts in established ADPs in fantasy. More fantasy managers are drafting on platforms like Underdog Fantasy, which is also having a big impact on how players are moving up and down draft boards.

This week’s ADP rumblings will be based on ADP over the last week on Underdog Fantasy. This will give us an accurate view of how recent news and camp reports can be leveraged against early-season drafts and long-established draft positions.

Fantasy Football ADP Rumblings (8/7)

Biggest Riser

Justin Fields, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers

ADP: 192.9 (-15.6), QB26

Justin Fields continues to get first-team reps with the Steelers in training camp while Russell Wilson works his way back from a calf injury. There have been numerous videos in training camp showing Fields making plays and beat reporters highlighting his strengths in practice.

That alone would be a reason for Fields’ ADP to climb, but the recent quote stating that the QB1 job in Pittsburgh is still open has led to an even faster ascent. Fields has many well-documented issues as a passer during his tenure with Chicago but was able to will himself to a top-12 QB finish on the back of prolific rushing totals.

Ultimately it still feels like the Pittsburgh job is Wilson’s to lose, but the more time Fields has to display his explosive rushing ability in Pittsburgh the more it seems like he will have a chance to claim the starting job. He remains a boom-or-bust QB3 in fantasy for next year (especially with Wilson on the roster) that could have one of the highest ceilings in fantasy or provide a steady diet of zeroes on the bench depending on how the next month plays out.

Biggest Faller

DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Tennessee Titans

ADP: 81.8 (+13.4), WR46

The news that DeAndre Hopkins would miss 4-6 weeks with a knee injury sent his ADP plummeting with the veteran receiver dropping over a round in the last week. Hopkins will now head into his age 32 with an injury that could potentially cost him a week or two in the regular season.

Before the injury, one could argue that Hopkins was an excellent value at wide receiver. He is coming off a strong season (75 receptions for 1,057 yards and seven touchdowns) and saw the team around him get upgraded this offseason. The offense should be more pass-happy under Brian Callahan and teams would be forced to guard Calvin Ridley as well as Hopkins. While the injury does muddy the waters, it doesn’t necessarily change any of those points (although the potential for missed time does put a damper on excitement about his season).

If you believed that Hopkins was an excellent value in fantasy drafts before, you think that even more now. There is no guarantee that he isn’t ready for Week 1. Even if he does miss the first two weeks of the season, that means he is avoiding matchups against two of the better secondaries in the NFL (Chicago and the Jets). Fantasy managers who were unsure of Hopkins in the fifth round now get a chance to get a piece of him at a discount.

Quarterback

Drake Maye, New England Patriots

ADP: 199.2, QB28

CLEMSON, SC - NOVEMBER 18: North Carolina Tar Heels quarterback Drake Maye (10) during a college football game between the North Carolina Tar Heels and the Clemson Tigers on November 18, 2023 at Clemson Memorial Stadium in Clemson, S.C. (Photo by John Byrum/Icon Sportswire) — CLEMSON, SC – NOVEMBER 18: North Carolina Tar Heels quarterback Drake Maye (10) during a college football game between the North Carolina Tar Heels and the Clemson Tigers on November 18, 2023 at Clemson Memorial Stadium in Clemson, S.C. (Photo by John Byrum/Icon Sportswire)

News out of the Patriots’ camp has been mixed regarding Drake Maye’s performances on the field. There are some days where he can make big plays and others where his accuracy and inconsistency show up. At this point, it seems like a certainty that Jacoby Brissett will start the year as the starting quarterback for the New England Patriots.

Maye’s ADP has slightly dipped in recent weeks, dropping him to the QB28 in Underdog drafts. The rookie will certainly start games in 2024, so his late-round ADP is very appealing.

During his career at North Carolina, Maye posted 8,018 passing yards and 63 touchdowns with 16 interceptions. He also added 302 carries for 1,209 yards and 16 touchdowns as a rusher. Maye had over 3,500 passing yards and 400 rushing yards over his last two seasons with the Tar Heels.

Vegas has New England’s win total for 2024 at 5.5 games. The Patriots may start the season with Brissett under center, but they will certainly get to a point in the season where they want to see what they have in Maye so they can support him in the draft in 2025. Maye has above-average mobility and would provide a strong floor as a rusher, even in an uncertain offense.

Running Back

Chase Brown, Cincinnati Bengals

ADP: 107.2, RB31

By all accounts, Chase Brown is having a fantastic camp and is working his way into a solid role for the 2024 season. The Bengals traded Joe Mixon away this offseason, replacing him with veteran Zack Moss. Moss had a strong season with the Colts in 2024 (183 carries for 794 yards and five touchdowns). The veteran is far from established, which gives Brown a chance to gradually earn the starting job throughout the season.

Brown flashed some explosive plays as a rookie but ultimately took a backseat to Joe Mixon in the backfield. Not only does he have great size (5-foot-10, 209 pounds) and speed (4.43 40-yard dash), but he was a true workhorse during his final year in college at Illinois.

None of that is to say that Brown will earn a high-volume role next season, but he could garner enough work in an ambiguous backfield to easily surpass his current RB31 price tag. Brown is a high-upside play in fantasy drafts and is available outside the top 100 picks.

Wide Receiver

Quentin Johnston, Los Angeles Chargers

ADP: 167.5, WR74

INGLEWOOD, CA - OCTOBER 1: Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver Quentin Johnston (1) guarded by Las Vegas Raiders safety Marcus Epps (1) during the NFL game between the Las Vegas Raiders and the Los Angeles Chargers on October 01, 2023, at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, CA. (Photo by Jevone Moore/Icon Sportswire) — INGLEWOOD, CA – OCTOBER 1: Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver Quentin Johnston (1) guarded by Las Vegas Raiders safety Marcus Epps (1) during the NFL game between the Las Vegas Raiders and the Los Angeles Chargers on October 01, 2023, at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, CA. (Photo by Jevone Moore/Icon Sportswire)

Throughout most of the offseason, Quentin Johnston’s ADP has slowly climbed as fantasy managers searched for options in the Chargers’ new-look passing attack. Johnston is seen as a rookie who had a brutal first season (67 targets, 38 receptions, 431 receiving yards and two touchdowns) despite an early injury to Mike Williams opening up a role.

It was easy to get excited about a former first-round pick getting a completely new offense and a clear runway to playing time. However, Johnston’s struggles with catching the ball have once again popped up in training camp.

Johnston has spent most of his time during camp running with the backups as Joshua Palmer, Ladd McConkey and D.J. Chark have taken first-team reps. While Johnston has made plays in camp, he’s continued to be plagued by drops ahead of his second season.

Those struggles, and the reality that the Chargers will establish the run instead of air out the football, has caused Johnston to fall back down the draft boards in fantasy. Johnston’s current ADP (WR74) makes him an interesting upside play, but fantasy managers will need to be patient until he earns a more consistent role in the offense.

Tight End

Theo Johnson, New York Giants

ADP: 213.2, TE31

For many, the tight end position is the spot to fade in fantasy drafts. For years, fantasy managers have been able to get strong production from late-round tight ends which has allowed the early rounds to be taken up securing an elite quarterback, running backs, and wide receivers.

One tight end that has late-round appeal is Giants’ rookie Theo Johnson. Johnson was a moderate producer during his four seasons at Penn State (77 receptions for 938 yards and 12 touchdowns), but found himself as a fast riser after an excellent combine performance. Johnson measured in at 6-foot-6 and 250 pounds and ran a 4.57 40-yard dash. That performance pushed him into the early fourth round in the NFL draft.

The Giants added a premier wide receiver in that same draft (Malik Nabers), but have a far less certain pass-catching group after him. The retirement of Darren Waller has also opened up an opportunity at the tight-end position. Daniel Bellinger will certainly have a role in the offense, but it wouldn’t be surprising for Johnson’s blend of size and speed to find a role attacking the middle of the field.

There is certainly a chance that Johnson provides little fantasy production early in the season, but he could also carve out a fantasy-relevant role in New York. Fantasy managers will need to practice patience (and he may be a better target in leagues with a deep bench early on), but it could pay big dividends by the end of the season.