2024 AFC South Betting Preview: Division Winners

While the summer solstice officially marks the beginning of our hottest season, the NFL has already brought an enhanced focus of content for the upcoming season. Articles, podcasts and Twitter timelines are zeroing in on the upcoming season, and best ball content is flowing like water. Sportsbooks have posted a plethora of future NFL bets such as player props and conference champions.

Over the next few weeks, I’ll provide NFL betting content by previewing every division. I’ll cover key divisional storylines, provide a breakdown for each team and give out my favorite bet to win each division. I started with the AFC East and NFC East in our first week, backing the Jets to end a 22-year drought as divisional champions, and the Eagles to reclaim the top spot over the Cowboys. Last week, we outlined why the Steelers (+700) are worth backing as the biggest long shot in the AFC North, and how the Packers (+210) will stop the Lions from repeating in the NFC North. Today, let’s look at the AFC South. 

AFC South Betting Preview

The AFC South title has been wide open since the 2014 season when the Colts ended a run of four division crowns in six seasons. Per Sports Odds History, we can see that the projected AFC South champion has maintained wild odds in June, leading to volatility and great betting value. 

Currently, the Texans (+105) are the betting favorite, with the Jaguars (+275) and Colts (+310) close behind. The long shot is the Titans (+1000), who are trying to rebuild under new head coach Brian Callahan. Will the Texans repeat their title behind another great performance from C.J. Stroud? Can the Jaguars get back to top with a healthy season from Trevor Lawrence? Will a healthy Anthony Richardson guide the Colts to their first title since 2014? Can Tennessee shock us all? 

Here’s my betting breakdown of the AFC South.

Tennessee Titans

(DraftKings Division Title Odds: +1000)

This could be a rough season for first-time head coach Brian Callahan.

There are legitimate questions that second-year quarterback Will Levis needs to answer this season. Per FTN Charting Data, Levis ranked dead-last in completion percentage (58.4%) among all quarterbacks with at least 250 passing attempts. His offensive line did him no favors, placing him 29th among the same group in clean pocket dropback rate. 

Tennessee’s defense finished just 18th in defensive DVOA, including 22nd in pass defense DVOA. The Titans have brutal road games against the Dolphins, Bills, Chargers and Lions. Even their home games are rough against the Jets, Packers and Bengals. 

The Titans upgraded their offensive weapons in running back Tony Pollard and wide receivers Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd. They tried to improve a brutal offensive line but still have a rookie tackle in JC Latham who may have to play on the left side of the line for the first time. The addition of offensive line coach Bill Callahan should help, but it may take time. I can’t see the Titans winning the division this season. 

Indianapolis Colts

(DraftKings Division Title Odds: +310)

The Colts have a win total of 8.5, juiced to the under. Indianapolis exceeded my expectations in Year 1 of the Shane Steichen era, but I again project regression for Indianapolis in 2024. The schedule looks good on the surface, ranking seventh-best overall, including a very easy Week 13-17 stretch. However, the Colts only have one game where they will have more rest than their opponent and five games against teams with extra rest. 

Quarterback Anthony Richardson flashed during his short four-game sample, but there are still questions about his durability and passing accuracy over a full season. The Colts must improve on defense, especially in their secondary. They allowed the fifth-most points (24.4) per game after finishing in the same spot during the 2022 season (25.1). 

The key to the Colts’ success is Richardson. If his four-game sample can be repeated over a full season, Indianapolis can compete for the division. I don’t believe in his consistency or passing accuracy enough to back the Colts. 

Jacksonville Jaguars

(DraftKings Division Title Odds: +275)

I’m high on the Jaguars this year, especially after they disappointed the betting public during the 2023 season. I love Jacksonville’s offense, which should be buoyed by a fully healthy Trevor Lawrence. 

The Jaguars win total is 8.5, slightly juiced to the over at -120. They should post big offensive numbers with the addition of first-round pick Brian Thomas and veteran Gabe Davis. The Jaguars also added center Mitch Morse to improve their offensive line, which must get better. Our own Dan Fornek ranks the Jaguars offensive line as second-worst in the league entering the season. They added depth across all positions, but can they facilitate better efficiency in both the run and pass game? 

Expectations are high for new defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen, who transformed a woeful Atlanta defense in 2023. In just one year with the Falcons, Nielsen improved Atlanta from 27th to 11th in yards allowed per game, while seeing their sack total double from 21 to 42. 

I believe in the Jaguars offense, and the defense should be improved. I just don’t think Jacksonville has enough to beat the Texans, but a playoff spot is certainly likely. 

Houston Texans

(DraftKings Division Title Odds: +105)

I can’t go against the favorite in the AFC South. The Texans projected win total is 9.5, juiced to the over (-140). Quarterback C.J. Stroud returns for a second season after winning Offensive Rookie of the Year, and Houston added elite talent in wide receiver Stefon Diggs, running back Joe Mixon and defensive end Danielle Hunter.

Houston suffered massive injuries on their offensive line last season but still found a way to win the division with three wins in their last four games. Houston should be much better up front, especially with the addition of second-round tackle Blake Fisher from Notre Dame. 

The Texans are all-in to win while Stroud is on his rookie deal and have the most talented roster in the division. There are certainly concerns, though. Houston has the hardest non-conference strength of schedule but should have a strong start at Indianapolis, Chicago, at Minnesota, Jacksonville and at New England during the first five weeks. They also went 7-3 in one-possession games, which usually regresses year over year. However, the additions on both sides of the ball combined with the consistency on the coaching staff make me back the AFC South favorites at +105. 

AFC South Winner Picks

The Pick: Houston Texans

The Texans had a fantastic season under first-year head coach DeMeco Ryans. I project Houston getting off to a great start and having an improved defense with a strengthened secondary through free agency (Jeff Okudah, C.J. Henderson). They are a legit Super Bowl contender and clearly the best team in the division. The Texans should receive a huge boost in their second year with the same coaching staff and an ascending franchise quarterback. 

Wild Card: Jacksonville Jaguars

This will be the year we expected to see from the Jaguars in 2023. Despite the loss of Calvin Ridley, this offense should be even better. The offensive line should improve, and even if Nielsen just makes incremental improvements, Jacksonville is a playoff team in 2024.