Prime-Time Props — Thursday Night Football, Week 1
Prop God
With the start of the 2023 NFL season around the corner, I will be going team by team recapping notable moves in the offseason, projecting their outlook for the upcoming league year. I’ll be using the FTN Prop Shop to pick out my favorite bets with the best line available, today covering the Kansas City Chiefs. Stay up to date on the action placed by myself and the rest of the FTN crew in real-time with the FTN Bet Tracker. You can also follow @FTNAlerts on Twitter with push notifications turned on. Bottom of Form
2023 NFL Team Betting Preview: Kansas City Chiefs
2022 Results
Record: 14-3; 1st in the AFC West
Season End: Beat Philadelphia Eagles, Super Bowl Champions
Kansas City Chiefs Offseason Summary
Draft
1.31: Felix Anudike-Uzomah, EDGE, Kansas State
2.55: Rashee Rice, WR, SMU
3.92: Wanya Morris, OT, Oklahoma
4.119: Chamarri Conner, S, Virginia Tech
4.166: BJ Thompson, EDGE, Stephen F. Austin
6.194: Keondre Coburn, DT, Texas
7.250: Nic Jones, CB, Ball State
Felix Anudike-Uzomah, EDGE (1.31)
The hometown product out of Kansas State adds much-needed depth on the edge following the departure of Frank Clark in free agency. Felix Anudike-Uzomah broke out in 2021, earning first-team all-conference honors, leading the FBS in forced fumbles (6) and finishing inside the top 10 in sacks (11). In his final season (2022), Anudike-Uzomah won Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year after recording a team-high 11 tackles for loss and 8.5 sacks.
Rashee Rice, WR (2.55)
The Chiefs traded up in the second round, sending picks No. 63, 122 and 249 to the Lions in exchange for picks No. 55 and 194. With their first pick of Day 2 (No. 55), Kansas City added SMU wide receiver Rashee Rice, hoping to fill the void left by JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman in free agency. Last season, Rice earned first-team All-American Athletic Conference honors, finishing top-five in the FBS in receptions (96) and third in receiving yards (1,355). He also led the Mustangs in receiving touchdowns, finding the end zone 10 times in 12 games.
Additions
Free agent signings: OT Jawaan Taylor, EDGE Charles Omenihu, OT Donovan Smith, LB Drue Tranquill, S Mike Edwards, QB Blaine Gabbert, WR Richie James, EDGE Matt Dickerson, CB Lamar Jackson
Jawaan Taylor, OT
After letting Orlando Brown walk in free agency, the Chiefs signed former Jaguars OT, Jawaan Taylor, who is coming off a career year. Last season, Taylor ranked top-15 in PFF pass-blocking grade (76.7) and pressure rate allowed (5.2%) among all tackles in true pass sets. He also allowed pressure on just 2.5% of dropbacks, which was the third lowest at the position.
Charles Omenihu EDGE
Last season with the 49ers, Charles Omenihu career-highs across the board, racking up 54 pressures, 16 quarterback hits, and 4.5 sacks. He was also PFF’s No. 1 ranked edge in free agency.
Richie James, WR
Richie James stepped up for the Giants last season, tying Saquon Barkley for a team-high 57 receptions on 70 targets for 569 receiving yards, and four touchdowns. James was the second-leading receiver for the G-Men despite starting only four games. He also played on special teams as the primary punt returner.
Departures
OT Orlando Brown, WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, S Juan Thornhill, DT Khalen Saunders, EDGE Frank Clark, WR Mecole Hardman, FB Michael Burton, RB Ronald Jones, WR Bryan Edwards, DT Byron Cowart
Orlando Brown, OT
In two seasons with the Chiefs, Orlando Brown started 33 of 34 possible games in the regular season games and was a Pro Bowler twice. Last season, Brown recorded a league-high 843 opportunities in pass protection and finished 31st in PFF pass blocking grade. He also ceded the most pressures and hurries at the position in 2022.
In his lone season with the Chiefs, JuJu Smith Schuster was the team’s leading wide receiver, trailing only Travis Kelce in targets (101), receptions (78), and receiving yards (933) in 2022.
Frank Clark, EDGE
Clark started in 55 regular-season games since joining Kansas City in 2019, recording 127 combined tackles, 23.5 sacks, and 59 quarterback hits over the last four seasons. He also had seven pass breakups and six forced fumbles during his tenure.
Mecole Hardman, WR
The Chiefs’ 2019 second-round pick (No. 56), Mecole Hardman played four seasons with the team, recording 220 targets, 151 receptions, 2,088 receiving yards and 16 receiving touchdowns in his career. He also operated as a gadget player logging 125 rushing yards on 20 attempts, and two rushing touchdowns. Hardman appeared in eight games last season before suffering an abdominal injury.
Schedule
Week 1 – Detroit Lions (Chiefs -6.5)
Week 2 – @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Week 3 – Chicago Bears
Week 4 – @ New York Jets
Week 5 – @ Minnesota Vikings
Week 6 – Denver Broncos
Week 7 – Los Angeles Chargers
Week 8 – @ Denver Broncos
Week 9 – Miami Dolphins
Week 10 – BYE
Week 11 – Philadelphia Eagles
Week 12 – @ Las Vegas Raiders
Week 13 – @ Green Bay Packers
Week 14 – Buffalo Bills
Week 15 – @ New England Patriots
Week 16 – Las Vegas Raiders
Week 17 – Cincinnati Bengals
Futures Odds
Unibet/Second-Chance Bet: Wins Over/Under: 11.5 (-125, +120)
FanDuel Sportsbook AFC West odds: -160
The defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs have the highest over/under win total on the board, set at 11.5 and juiced to the over (-125). Since Patrick Mahomes took over as the starter in 2018, Kansas City has surpassed this total every season, with 12 or more wins four years in a row. Their streak as winners of the AFC West extends even further, taking home the divisional title in seven straight seasons dating back to 2016. As a result, there is no discount on the Chiefs’ divisional odds, who are the largest favorites to win their division at -160. I prefer to take over on wins at a better price with added insulation of a 17-game season.
Chiefs Best Bets for 2023
FanDuel/BetMGM/Unibet/Second-Chance Bet: To Have Best Regular Season Record (+500)
The Chiefs finished with the best record in the NFL last season, tied with the Eagles at 14-3. It was the second time the Chiefs have won 14-plus games in the past three seasons, finishing with the most regular-season wins at a 66.7% clip. Despite having a first-place schedule next season, over half of their games — nine of 17 — are against teams that missed the playoffs in 2022. No team has more wins than Kansas City over the past decade, who have an overall record of 117-45 since 2012.
Caesars/Unibet/Second-Chance Bet: Most Points Scored (+550)
No team scored more points than the Chiefs last season (496, 29.2 per game). They were the only team to average over 400 yards of offense last season (413.6), finishing with the fourth-most offensive yards in NFL history (7,032). Since Patrick Mahomes’ first season as the starter, Kansas City has scored the most points in two of five seasons.
FanDuel: Travis Kelce Over 1,050.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
In Travis Kelce’s first season with Patrick Mahomes but without Tyreek Hill, he set career-highs in targets (152), receptions (110) and touchdowns (12), to go along with 1,338 receiving yards. This offseason the Chiefs let JuJu Smith-Schuster walk in free agency after he finished second on the team in targets (101), receptions (78) and receiving yards (933), trailing only Kelce. Besides drafting Rashee Rice in the second round, the Chiefs have added no significant player to threaten Kelce’s alpha status. Kelce has cleared 1,050 receiving yards in five of five seasons with Mahomes as the starter and six out of the last seven seasons dating back to 2016.
