Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
With the start of the 2023 NFL and fantasy football season around the corner, I will be going team by team recapping notable moves in the offseason, projecting their outlook for the upcoming league year.I’ll be using the FTN Prop Shop Tool to pick out my favorite bets with the best line available, today covering the Cleveland Browns. Stay up to date on the action placed by myself and the rest of the FTN crew in real-time with the FTN Bet Tracker.You can also follow @FTNAlerts on Twitter with push notifications turned on.
2023 NFL Team Roundup: Cleveland Browns
2022 Results
Record: 7-10, 4th in the AFC North
Season Ending: Lost 28-14 at Pittsburgh, did not make the playoffs
Cleveland Browns Offseason Summary
Draft
3.74: Cedric Tillman, WR, Tennessee
3.98: Siaki Ika, DT, Baylor
4.111: Dawand Jones, OT, Ohio State
4.126: Isaiah McGuire, DE, Missouri
5.140: Dorian Thompson-Robinson, QB, UCLA
5.142: Cameron Mitchell, CB, Northwestern
6.190: Luke Wypler, C, Ohio State
Cedric Tillman, WR (3.74)
Cleveland will have decisions to make after this season, with Amari Cooper turning 29 years old and Donovan Peoples-Jones in the final year of his rookie deal. Tillman’s final season at Tennessee was cut short due to ankle surgery.
Siaki Ika, DT (3.98)
Cleveland struggled mightily on run defenses last year, allowing 135 rushing yards per game (8th most in the NFL).
Dawand Jones, OT, (4.111)
Jones is 6-foot-8, 374 pounds, and did not allow a sack for Ohio State last season. He struggles as a run-blocker but is a worthy project with massive size.
Dorian Thompson-Robinson, QB, (5.140)
With Jacoby Brissett now in Washington, the Browns only had Joshua Dobbs and Kellen Mond as backups to Deshaun Watson. Thompson-Robinson posted over 600 rushing yards in each of the past two seasons at UCLA.
Additions
Free agent signings: QB Joshua Dobbs, WR Marquise Goodwin, TE Jordan Akins, OG Colby Gossett, EDGE Ogbonnia Okoronkwo, DL Trysten Hill, DL Maurice Hurst, DT Dalvin Tomlinson, LB Matthew Adams, CB Mike Ford, S Rodney McLeod, S Juan Thornhill
Trades: WR Elijah Moore, EDGE Za’Darius Smith
Marquise Goodwin, QB
Speedy wideout joins his fifth NFL team in his 10th season.
Jordan Akins, TE
Athletic tight end averaged 36.5 receptions in his last two seasons with Watson in Houston.
Elijah Moore, WR
Still only 23 years old, Moore is a talented (4.40 speed) wideout that was squeezed out of a crowded Jets wide receiver room. Could ascend to WR2 role with Browns.
Za’Darius Smith, Edge
Very productive pass rusher who posted double-digit sacks in his last three full seasons.
Departures
QB Jacoby Brissett, RB Kareem Hunt, RB D’Ernest Johnson, TE Pharaoh Brown, OT Chris Hubbard, C/OG Hjalte Froholdt, EDGE Jadeveon Clowney, Edge Chase Winovich, DL Taven Bryan, LB Jermaine Carter, LB Deion Jones, LB Reggie Ragland, CB Greedy Williams, S Ronnie Harrison, S John Johnson
Jacoby Brissett, QB
Started 10 games last year for Browns, playing well. One of the best backup QBs in the league, Brissett signed with Washington.
Kareem Hunt, RB
Still only 27 years old, Hunt remains on the free agent market as teams continue to devalue veteran running backs. Will be replaced by Jerome Ford as the RB2 to Nick Chubb.
Jadeveon Clowney, Edge
Posted 11 sacks in 26 games with Cleveland, but missed four games last season and was released after criticizing the coaching staff immediately after the season.
Schedule
Week 1 – Cincinnati Bengals (+2.5)
Week 2 – @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Week 3 – Tennessee Titans
Week 4 – Baltimore Ravens
Week 5 – BYE
Week 6 – San Francisco 49ers
Week 7 – @Indianapolis Colts
Week 8 – @Seattle Seahawks
Week 9 – Arizona Cardinals
Week 10 – @ Baltimore Ravens
Week 11 – Pittsburgh Steelers
Week 12 – @Denver Broncos
Week 13 – @Los Angeles Rams
Week 14 – Jacksonville Jaguars
Week 15 – Chicago Bears
Week 16 – @ Houston Texans
Week 17 – New York Jets
Week 18 – @ Cincinnati Bengals
Future Odds
DraftKings Wins Over/Under: 9.5 Wins (+115, -135)
DraftKings: AFC North odds: +425
The Browns enter year two of the Deshaun Watson era after a less-than-ideal end to the 2022 season. Watson returned from his 11-game suspension in Week 13 last season, visibly rusty from a two-year hiatus, and finished 3-3 as the starter. Watson struggled as a passer, held to less than 170 passing yards in four out of six games. He posted career lows in yards per attempt (6.5), completion percentage (58.2%) and TD rate (4.1), finishing 35th among all qualified signal callers in EPA per dropback (-0.09). It’s hard to ignore how bad Watson was, butit isn’t too surprising given his extended absence. Although I expect the team to be much better with Watson available to start the season, I’m not comfortable picking either side of their 9.5-win total. Although the +425 to win the division is enticing, I’m staying away from that as well, competing in a tough AFC North with two teams, the Bengals and the Ravens, projected for double-digit victories.
Browns Best Bets for 2023
BetMGM: To Miss the Playoffs (-120)
Odds of -120 to miss the playoffs are the shortest odds we’ve seen for Cleveland in quite some time for a team that has made the postseason just once over the past two decades. Even if the Browns go over their win total and win double-digit games, there’s a realistic scenario that they still finish third in the division and lose the tiebreaker to get into the playoffs as a Wild Card. In 2022, two out of the three Wild Card teams won at least 10 games, with Miami sneaking in as the seventh seed with a 9-8 record. I’m willing to bet on history and although I do expect Watson to bounce back, I don’t think it will be enough to clinch a playoff berth.
FanDuel: Deshaun Watson Over 3,625 Passing Yards
Deshaun Watson’s limited sample in Cleveland last season wasn’t great, averaging 16.5 completions on 28.33 dropbacks for 183.67 passing yards in six starts. The Browns made their best effort to take the ball out of Watson’s hands, who attempted 30 or more passes in just two out of six games. The team has been vocal this offseason about taking the leash off Watson in year two with a scheme better suited to fit their franchise quarterback. I’m trusting the words of the Browns’ coaching staff and taking the over on 3,625.5 passing yards. Watson has cleared this mark in three out of three seasons as the full-time starter, passing for over 4,000 yards twice. The last time Watson played more than six games came in 2019, when he led the NFL in passing yards, throwing for 4,823 yards in 16 games.
BetMGM: Nick Chubb Rushing Leader (+700)
Unibet/Second-Chance Bet: Nick Chubb Most Rushing Touchdowns (+1,000)
Since taking over as the full-time starter in 2019, Nick Chubb has been one of the most productive running back in the league, logging 1,000-plus rushing yards and 8-plus rushing touchdowns in four straight seasons. Last season, Chubb posted career-highs in carries (302) and rushing yards (1,525), while matching his career-best in rushing touchdowns (12). He finished third in the NFL in rushing yards, behind only Josh Jacobs and Derrick Henry, and fifth in rushing touchdowns. With Kareem Hunt and D’Ernest Johnson out of the picture entering 2023, Chubb should see an uptick in volume playing what projects to be a much better offense. Among all active running backs with at least 300 carries (64), Chubb ranks top-three in yards per carry (5.2), yards after contact per carry (3.9) and missed tackles forced per carry (0.25) dating back to 2018, Chubb’s first season in the NFL.
Caesars: Amari Cooper Over 875.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
FanDuel: Amari Cooper Over 6.5 Receiving Touchdowns (+100)
Amari Cooper took no time getting acclimated with his new team, posting career highs across the board, catching 78 passes on 132 targets 1,160 receiving yards, and nine touchdowns. With Deshaun Watson sidelined to start the season, most of his damage came alongside journeyman backup quarterback Jacoby Brissett, who started for Cleveland in the first 11 games. Although his production dipped off when Watson returned, I’m expecting him to improve after another offseason with the team and a lot more passing volume. Last season, the Browns ranked 28th in pass rate over expected, averaging a little over 30 dropbacks per game (31.75), for just 218.24 passing yards. Cooper has cleared 875.5 receiving yards and 6.5 receiving touchdowns in three of the last four seasons, surpassing 1,000 receiving yards in all five seasons he’s played more than 15 games.
